Wednesday, 5 October 2016

Lithium And Energy rEVolution: EVs Sales Reach All-Time High In US For September, Almost 17,000 Sold.


  InsideEVs reports about another record sales of electric cars in the US. In September 16,974 EVs were sold which is 67% increase y/y from 2015. Now InsideEVs tracks 29 model of electric cars being sold in the US. It compares with 25 companies in China already selling 51 models of electric cars and 200 companies developing 4,000 new EVs models. Worldwide sales of EVs are now at 441,179 up to the end of August. We still have a chance to reach my goal of 1,000,000 electric cars sold in 2016. Now China will have to deliver more than 500,000 EVs sold and it is possible. Tesla with its own record number of 111% jump in sales in the Q3 this year will deliver the boost to the sales of EVs in the US and GM Bolt is the wild card. They are going to deliver first to Lyft now - I do hope that the production is on track and normal sales and deliveries will start in November. 
  As you can see among the leaders in sales of EVS in the US the best electric cars are selling the best.  Tesla Model S - 21,715 total sales in 2016; Chevy Volt - 16, 326; Tesla Model X - 12,740. This year Ford overtakes Nissan with its Enegi  and 11,650 in sales. Nissan Leaf is number 5 this year in sales with 9,238. 
  I would note that both Teslas are the most expensive electric cars and once we have the better price offer with the range over 200 miles from GM Bolt and Tesla Model 3 these numbers will become even more impressive. I expect Chevy Bolt to beat Chevy Volt in the first full year of sales in 2017. The trend is obvious - lithium technology and cheaper battery batteries allow us now much better fully electric cars (BEV) and hybrid technology with two very costly powertrains is only a transition technology. Customers are ready to buy the best electric cars, bring them on Apple! I am waiting for the latest full data from China for the August.
  Some investors are still searching for the lithium in news releases from Nevada. I would note that marketing companies will probably make more money than investors on this trend. Joe Lowry from Global Lithium will be a very good guide for all interested in this "hot commodity." Panasonic is actually supplying the lithium cells to Tesla and they are buying lithium chemicals from China mostly now.  There is no lithium under Tesla Gigafactory floor and Chinese giants are going for the best lithium projects all over the world where lithium is actually located in economically viable for extraction deposits.  

Lithium Race: Tesla Is Selling Twice As Many Electric Cars As It Was A Year Ago.


  "CNN reports that Tesla is selling twice as many electric cars as it was a year ago! The sales in Q3 are up 111%  to the record of 24,500 EVs compared with 11,603 sold last year in the same quarter. It looks like the famous now motivational email by Elon Musk is making its magic at Tesla as more than 5,000 Teslas reported to be in a transition already. Tesla is on track to sell 50,000 electric cars in the second half of 2016 and meet its target of 80,000 to 90,000 new Teslas cruising on the roads for the whole year.
  This new achievement by Elon Musk and his Team at Tesla will contribute nicely to my expected 1,000,000 of electric cars being sold in 2016. China will claim at least 500,000 EVS in sales in 2016 and Europe will be racing for the 2nd place against the U.S. with roughly 250,000 in sales each hopefully.  In another important news, Elon Musk has confirmed that Tesla is on track to meet its very ambitious goal of 500,000 electric cars made annually by 2018.  Now a lot of people will have to change their estimations for lithium demand. China is acting already and driving the new round of consolidation in "The New Lithium Top 5" where security of lithium supply is a major concern now. Read more."

Lithium 2.0: "New Lithium Top 5" Consolidation And Security Of Supply: FT "China's Tianqi Moves On Chile's SQM."


  "FT reports that further round of competition for the security of lithium supply is driving the new wave of consolidation among our "New Lithium Top 5". With all political troubles in Chile Argentina is rising to the top lithium destination in the world now. Chinese Tianqi and Ganfeng were competing for the stake in SQM. Now we can see that Tianqi will pay 51% premium to get 2.6% for more than $200 million dollars in SQM. This move opens the doors to acquire more than 20% stake in SQM. I will be following on more details of this deal.

"Now you can better understand why the security for lithium supply becomes crucial for the industry leaders. Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi have made it to the "New Lithium Top 5" this year and even pushed FMC down in the 5th place, according to Joe Lowry. Tianqi controls with Albemarle Talison  Lithium - a source of lithium raw material from hard rock mining in Australia. Now with Tianqi front running for the 23% stake at SQM - a source of lithium raw material from brine in Chile, we will have a new round of competition for the security of lithium supply. Reflecting on its political problems in Chile SQM moves to Argentina in J/V with Lithium Americas and Albemarle has just announced plans for the lithium exploration in Argentina. 
  International Lithium is building the vertically integrated lithium business with $4.5 Billion market cap giant from China Ganfeng Lithium, which is financing J/V operations in Argentina and Ireland. Below you can find more links on the Lithium Battery and raw materials space to make your own conclusions." Read more.

Energy rEVolution: Finding Value In The Booming Lithium Sector.

   "International Lithium is getting noticed in the industry with our strategic partnership with Ganfeng Lithium from China. Ganfeng has made it into the "New Lithium Top 5" this year and now we have a new round of competition for the security of lithium supply with a further consolidation in the industry. Argentina becomes the top destination for the Lithium Supply development and our projects in Europe and Canada are moving fast forward now with our strategic partners.  We are drilling in Ireland after recent discoveries with Ganfeng and Pioneer Resources from Australia is advancing Mavis Lake and Raleigh Lake projects this year. ILC is one of the most active lithium exploration and development companies with CAD$17 million budgeted for the advance of our projects on the 3 continents. 
  Please read carefully my legal disclaimer and never invest without consulting with your qualified financial adviser. I cannot comment or provide any information on the other companies as International Lithium's qualified person as it is defined by NI 43-101 was not able to verify and confirm the provided information. You can find below more information on Ganfeng Lithium and ILC including for our followers from Germany. Read more."


We have to admit, reporting on plug-in vehicles sales for the United States was a bit of a drag in 2015. The lack of new models, and waiting on new generational upgrades, meant that sales were flat for most of the year.
2016 has been nothing like that.
Toyota Prius Prime looks to be ready to give the Model S a run for the sales crown in 2017, after being priced in the US from $27,100 + DST this month
After taking 2016 off, the new Toyota Prius Prime looks to be ready to give the Tesla Model S a run for the US EV sales crown in 2017, after being priced in the US from $27,100 (+ DST) this month
And for September, a new all-time record was set, with~16,974 plug-ins sold during the month, good for a large 67%gain over 2015, when 10,134 vehicles were sold.
The surge in EV registrations, combined with a bit of a slump for the overall automotive segment in the US for September (1,435,689 sales), gave plug-in vehicles more than 1% of the new car market for the first time – coming in at 1.2%
For the full year, US sales have now crossed into 6 figures, hitting an estimated 110,171 plug-ins sold after 10 months, a 34% gain from the 82,404 sold through September of 2015.
Finding a reason for the surge this month was an easy task, as Tesla Motors in an effort to hit earlier sales guidance, delivered a record 24,500 cars in Q3, with the bulk of them (about ~7,500 according to our estimates) happening in the US during September.
In so doing, the Tesla Model S achieved an all-time single month plug-in sales record in the US, selling more than 4,300 copies.
A few other models also reached new 2016 highs during September, including the Nissan LEAFTesla Model X andVolkswagen e-Golf.  
However, a few dogs still weighed the market down and prevented sales from passing the 17,000-level for the first time; most notably the under-stocked BMW i3, whose updated 33 kWh battery option (good for 114 miles in the BEV configuration, and 97 miles in the PHEV version) failed to arrive in volume before the older 2016 models ran out of stock.
2016 Monthly Sales Chart For The Major Plug-In Automakers - *Estimated Tesla Sales Numbers NA-X – Reconciled on Quarterly Totals, ** Fiat/Hyundai Does Not Report Sales Directly, Estimate Based on State/Rebate Data
2016 Monthly Sales Chart For The Major Plug-In Automakers – *Estimated Tesla Sales Numbers NA-X – Reconciled on Quarterly Totals, ** Fiat/Hyundai Does Not Report Sales Directly, Estimate Based on State/Rebate Data

Other Statistical Points of Interest from September 2016

After 2 years of availability on the US market, the Kia Soul EV crossed into "the 200s" for sales for the first time in the US in September
After 2 years of availability on the US market, the Kia Soul EV crossed into “the 200s” for sales for the first time in the US in September
Top Manufacturers Of Plug-In Vehicles:
  1. Tesla Motors* – 7,550
  2. Ford – 2,423
  3. GM – 2,352
  4. Nissan  1,316
  5. BMW – 1,085
  6. VW Group – 1,000
Pure Electric Car Market Share vs PHEV In September*
  1. BEV – 10,771 -63.5%
  2. PHEV – 6,203 – 36.5%
New Year Highs Set In September By Model (previous 2016 high in brackets)
  • Tesla Model S* – 4,350 (3,700)
  • Tesla Model X* – 3,200 (1,860)
  • Nissan LEAF – 1,316 (1,246)
  • VW e-Golf – 529 (454)
  • Kia Soul EV – 217 (153)
  • Mercedes S550e – 41 (36)
(*) estimated"
The full monthly recap by individual plug-in can be found on our Monthly Scorecard here.

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