McKinsey sees lithium demand stabilising and expects the next upcycle: "Lithium prices appear to have bottomed, with demand growth accelerating beyond electric vehicles due to rapid expansion in stationary storage."
As we have discussed, Energy Storage will drive the next chapter of Lithium demand, and humanoid robots will be coming next into the picture with every new headline about groundbreaking technological progress. Today, we can dive into more details to better understand the Lithium market demand and supply.
According to Albemarle, long-term secular growth is intact: Lithium market demand is expected to increase 2.5X from 2024 to 2030 - from 1.3M T LCE to 3.3M T LCE per year. Projected Lithium demand is a healthy CAGR of 15-20%, while recent reductions to Lithium investments and expansions may create mid-term supply risk.
The next chart demonstrates the most important driver for the supercharging Lithium market again. Albemarle states that current Lithium market prices are well below re-investment economics and unsustainable. A substantial part of the cost curve is operating below breakeven. Higher Lithium prices are required over the next decade to support the over 100 new projects needed to meet anticipated demand.
Lower Lithium prices are the best cure for the low Lithium prices. To meet the projected demand, we need much higher Lithium prices, otherwise, a lack of investments and expansions will lead to deficits. Supply and price shocks are imminent. The cheaper EVs will supercharge the Lithium market again, and China holds the key to this success with companies like BYD leading the seismic shift in the marketplace.
Last month, at TNR Gold, we celebrated Ganfeng's inauguration of the start of production at Mariana Lithium. Phase I will produce 20,000 Lithium chloride annually. TNR Gold holds NSR Royalty on Mariana Lithium, and the links below provide you with more information on this giant Ganfeng Lithium project in Argentina.
The Mariana lithium project, located in Argentina, will be one of the first to deliver royalty payments for TNR, potentially as early as March 2025. At current spot lithium prices, analysts project annual royalty revenue of approximately $1.2 million for TNR.The timing is particularly advantageous as lithium prices are currently hovering around $10,000 per ton—near the break-even point for many large-scale development projects. Fundamental Research anticipates a rebound in lithium prices to at least $15,000 per ton, which would significantly enhance the economic viability of projects like Mariana and spur further development across the sector." (Angela Harmantes)
McKinsey’s said lithium prices appear to have bottomed, with demand growth accelerating beyond electric vehicles due to rapid expansion in stationary storage.The comments, made during a Bloomberg-hosted review, is similar to Albemarle’s estimate that stationary storage now accounts for about 20% of lithium demand.McKinsey was optimistic about western automakers adopting advanced battery pack designs, boosting energy density and enabling EVs with over 600 miles of range and sub-10-minute charging times.Such improvements could drive the next lithium upcycle by reaccelerating western EV adoption." (Investing.com)
Fast-increasing demand for battery raw materials and imbalanced regional supply and demand are challenging battery and automotive producers’ efforts to reduce Scope 3 emissions."
(McKinsey and Company)
TNR Gold Royalty Holding: Ganfeng Officially Inaugurates Mariana Lithium's Start of Production in Salta, Argentina
After meeting with the President of Argentina, Javier Milei, Ganfeng officially inaugurated Mariana Lithium's start of production in Guemes, Salta, on February 12, 2025! We congratulate the President of Argentina, Javier Milei, the Governor of Salta, Gustavo Saenz, the Ganfeng Lithium Team and all the proud people of Argentina!
I congratulate all our shareholders - thank you for all your support, it is greatly appreciated! On your behalf, I would like to congratulate and thank all our very talented Team of TNR Gold building The Green Energy Metals Royalty and Gold Company!
Gustavo Saenz, the Governor of Salta, Argentina, opened the official ceremony of the inauguration of Marina Lithium's start of production on February 12, 2025! Phase I will produce 20,000 T of LiCl annually.
TNR Gold is holding NSR Royalty on the Mariana Lithium Project, and this month, we are graduating to the cash-flow-generation royalty company.
With Mariana Lithium going into production, TNR Gold is crystallising its transformation from a project-generation junior mining company into a cash-flow-generation royalty company.
TNR Gold becomes "the critical material option play without time decay" on Solid-State Lithium Batteries that are advanced in the market.
Solid-State Lithium Batteries are safer, allow longer range for electric cars and are crucial for the development of such advanced technologies as humanoid robots.
"For all TNR Gold shareholders, it will be very interesting to note here that Lithium Chloride is the preferred Lithium chemical composition to convert into Lithium metal. Now we can put all recent developments at the Mariana Lithium Project into the perspective of this new battery technology."
The latest generation of Optimus GEN III uses a 2.3 kWh, 52-volt Lithium battery with an energy density of 300 Wh/kg. I believe that Solid-State Lithium batteries will be used in future generations of humanoid Robots, these batteries can provide a much higher energy density of 400 Wh/kg now.
“Ganfeng's second-generation hybrid solid-state lithium batteries use lithium metal as the anode and can reach an energy density of 400 Wh/kg, the company said." (CnEVPost)
For all TNR Gold shareholders, it is exciting that the Mariana Lithium Project's annual production capacity of 20,000 LiCl T/Y is called Phase 1!
“Each project can be expanded in two stages. Our current goal is to move them into production to bring more jobs to the community and generate more value for the industry,” Luo said. To carry out the expansions, which will be decided based on market conditions, an investment of USD 800 million is required for each of the projects."
“Last year we repaid our investment loan in full, and our Company has no debt. We believe that the recent market prices of our shares do not properly reflect the underlying value of the shares. Our transformation from the project generation junior mining company into the cash flow generating royalty company will bring the necessary catalyst for the market valuation of our assets."
We are building The Green Energy Metals Royalty and Gold Company. TNR Gold is plugged into Tesla Energy rEVolution with our Royalty Holdings on the Mariana Lithium Project with Ganfeng Lithium, Los Azules Copper, Gold and Silver Project with McEwen Mining and Batidero I and II Properties of Josemaria Copper-Gold Project with Lundin mining.
Alastair Ford: TNR Gold’s Recent Rejection of a Takeover Bid From Lithium Royalty Has Shone a Spotlight on the Value of Its Royalty and Exploration Portfolio
Angela Harmantes from Proactive wrote about the new report on TNR Gold from Fundamental Research Corp:
"TNR Gold’s portfolio spans various mining assets, with a key focus on its Shotgun gold project in Alaska and royalties in two advanced-stage projects in Argentina: the Mariana lithium project, owned by Ganfeng Lithium, and the Los Azules copper-gold project, held by McEwen Copper."
"TNR Gold is on the brink of generating significant royalty revenue from its stake in Ganfeng Lithium's Mariana lithium project in Argentina as it heads toward commercial production, Fundamental Research analysts believe.The analysts have raised their share price target for TNR from $0.24 to $0.28 per share, highlighting the imminent cash flow potential from this strategic investment."
(Angela Harmantes)
Disclaimer: Please be aware that any opinions, estimates or forecasts regarding the performance of TNR Gold Corp. in any research reports do not represent the opinions, estimates or forecasts of TNR Gold Corp. or of its management.
TNR Gold Investor Presentation: Building The Green Energy Metals Royalty and Gold Company from Kirill Klip
Please read my legal disclaimer. There is NO investment advice on any of Kirill Klip's feeds and blogs. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.
Do Your Own Research.
Discovery Alert:
Ganfeng Lithium’s Mariana Salt Lake Project: Transforming Argentina’s Lithium Landscape
"Ganfeng Lithium's Mariana Salt Lake Project stands as a transformative initiative within the company's expansive strategy to secure and develop high-quality lithium resources. Nestled in Argentina's prolific lithium triangle, the project combines advanced extraction technologies with robust sustainable practices to not only satisfy rising global demand but also address environmental challenges. By integrating innovative methods, such as direct lithium extraction, Ganfeng is setting a new standard for how lithium is responsibly produced in one of the world’s most resource-rich regions.
The project utilises state-of-the-art methodologies that align with global trends towards cleaner and more efficient energy sources. With the lithium market evolving rapidly, the Mariana Salt Lake Project reflects both the urgency and optimism that characterise the contemporary landscape of mineral extraction. The strategic importance of this development extends far beyond national borders, contributing to a ripple effect that is already visible in global battery and energy sectors.
Project Location and Resource Potential: Why Argentina?
Strategically positioned at coordinates 24°45'S 66°30'W, the Mariana Salt Lake Project is located in Salta Province’s Llullaillaco salt flat. This location is not only geologically unique but also provides access to an estimated 8.12 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). The resource potential is underscored by the presence of multiple brine reservoirs, found at depths ranging from 200 to 400 metres below the surface, where lithium concentrations vary between 800-1,200 mg/L.
Several factors contribute to the resource richness of this area:
= The geological configuration facilitates a high recovery rate of lithium.
= The unique mineral composition supports long-term sustainable extraction.
= The infrastructure and supportive regional policies further boost the operational feasibility of the project.
This resource potential positions the project at the forefront of Argentina’s mining agenda, enhancing the country’s reputation as a crucial player in the global lithium market. Insights drawn from other pioneering projects, such as those showcasing chile's market expansion, further underline the strategic regional importance of such developments.
Investment and Production Specifications: A Look Under the Hood
The Mariana Salt Lake Project benefits from a significant investment of $790 million (approximately 5.76 billion yuan), underscoring Ganfeng Lithium’s confidence in its long-term viability. This substantial funding is allocated to both the extraction processes and the development of complementary sustainable infrastructure, including a dedicated 120MW solar park funded with an extra $190 million.
Key production details include:
= An initial capacity of 20,000 tonnes per annum of lithium chloride.
= A modern infrastructure that integrates renewable energy to support operations.
= Advanced technological applications to boost extraction efficiency and lower environmental impact.
Investments of this nature not only revolutionise traditional mining paradigms but also showcase how new technology can drive the sustainable production of vital resources. In a similar vein, emerging projects like the canadian battery market initiative have demonstrated the benefits of blending conventional mining techniques with renewable energy solutions.
Strategic Regional Context: What Makes the Lithium Triangle So Important?
Situated within the renowned lithium triangle—which spans Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia—the Mariana Salt Lake Project capitalises on a region that is estimated to hold 58% of the world's total lithium reserves. This geographic advantage not only provides Ganfeng with access to superior quality resources but also ensures potentially lower extraction costs relative to other global sites.
Advantages of being located in the lithium triangle include:
= Proximity to major reserves that reduce logistical complexities.
= Enhanced opportunities for regional partnerships and investments.
= Exposure to progressive national policies that prioritise resource development.
The regional significance is amplified when viewed alongside other international achievements. For example, discussions about advancements in areas such as pegmatite clean energy illustrate how innovative geological processes contribute to cleaner energy systems worldwide.
Argentina's Supportive Mining Environment: Is the Policy Climate Conducive?
Under the administration of President Javier Milei, Argentina has emerged as a pro-mining nation, instituting a series of policy reforms designed to encourage investment and growth in the mining sector.
Key elements of this supportive environment include:
= A reduction in corporate tax rates from 35% to 25% for mining projects, substantially improving project economics.
= A remarkable 47% year-on-year increase in foreign direct investment.
= The creation of approximately 850 direct jobs and around 3,200 indirect job opportunities, each contributing to local and national economic stability.
These policy measures not only provide immediate fiscal incentives but also establish a long-term framework that attracts global investors. Coupled with innovative sustainable practices, Argentina’s mining-friendly policies create a fertile ground for projects like the Mariana Salt Lake Project to thrive in the competitive global market.
Technological Innovation and Extraction Methods: How Is Extraction Evolving?
One of the most compelling aspects of the Mariana project is its use of cutting-edge Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) technology. This advanced method offers several marked improvements over traditional evaporation techniques:
= It significantly reduces water consumption, a critical factor in arid regions.
= It minimises the environmental footprint by lowering related chemical waste.
= It enhances extraction efficiency, ensuring a higher recovery rate of lithium.
= It maintains an energy consumption rate of approximately 35 kWh per kilogram of lithium chloride, underscoring its efficiency.
The adoption of DLE is a reflection of the industry’s move towards integrating environmentally sustainable methods with traditional mining practices. This progression is not isolated; advancements similar to those observed in projects emphasising direct lithium extraction are redefining sustainable mineral extraction globally. Moreover, techniques that result in cleaner energy outputs offer novel avenues for mitigating the environmental impacts common to resource extraction.
Market Dynamics and Future Outlook: What Do the Trends Indicate?
Despite facing challenges from a slowdown in the electric vehicle market—where sales growth has decelerated from 31% to an anticipated 22% by 2024—Ganfeng Lithium remains steadfast in its commitment to long-term expansion. This firm stance is driven by the continuing global demand for lithium, projected to reach 1.4 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2030, marking a substantial increase from the current level of 800,000 tonnes.
Key market trends include:
= A robust recovery in global lithium demand despite short-term fluctuations.
= Increased investments in renewable energy storage and electric vehicles, both of which rely heavily on lithium-based batteries.
= Progressive policies worldwide aimed at reducing carbon footprints while enhancing supply chain resilience.
Analyses based on studies such as those focused on market trends 2024 suggest that the future of lithium production is bright, provided industries continue to innovate and optimise their operations. This forecast reinforces the importance of initiatives like the Mariana Salt Lake Project, making them crucial not only for Ganfeng's portfolio but also for meeting the energy demands of the future.
Broader Portfolio and Expansion Strategy: What Else Is on the Horizon?
In addition to the Mariana project, Ganfeng Lithium's portfolio encompasses several high-profile projects across Argentina. These include:
= The Cauchari-Olaroz project, which is already operational and yields a production capacity of 40,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of Li2CO3.
= The Pozuelos-Pastos Grandes project, for which construction is slated to start in 2025.
= The Incahuasi–Arizaro project, currently in an advanced exploration phase.
= A noteworthy 14.9% stake in Proyecto Pastos Grandes, which further diversifies the company’s resource base.
This multifaceted portfolio highlights Ganfeng’s forward-thinking approach to expansion and risk management. By investing in multiple projects simultaneously, the company seeks to balance production across different sites and mitigate risks associated with market volatility. The broader international context also offers instructive comparisons; for instance, other regions, particularly in Canada, are realising similar ambitions as evidenced by initiatives like the canadian battery market that are fueling global competitiveness.
Future Development and Exploration: What Lies Ahead?
Looking forward, Ganfeng Lithium has earmarked an additional $150 million for exploration and development spanning 2025 to 2027. This investment is aimed at not only optimising current extraction techniques but also paving the way for the pilot production of direct lithium hydroxide by 2026. Such proactive measures underscore the company’s commitment to technological leadership in an increasingly competitive global landscape.
The forward-thinking strategy encompasses:
= Investing in research and development to refine extraction and processing techniques.
= Exploring new frontiers in lithium chemistry to expand the applications of the mineral.
= Strengthening the overall sustainability agenda in mining practices to meet environmental benchmarks and regulatory standards.
This strategic vision ensures that Ganfeng remains at the cutting edge of industry trends while providing a reliable supply of critical materials to the global market. Such developments echo industry-wide shifts towards integrated and sustainable resource production, reflecting the dynamic interplay between technological innovation and market demands.
Conclusion
The Mariana Salt Lake Project encapsulates Ganfeng Lithium’s strategic vision, merging advanced technological methods with sustainable practices to meet global lithium demand responsibly. By leveraging key innovations like pegmatite clean energy and direct lithium extraction, the project not only strengthens Argentina’s mining credentials but also sets a benchmark for future developments in the sector. The interplay of supportive governmental policies, significant investments, and robust regional opportunities—and lessons drawn from international projects such as the canadian battery market—further underscore the importance of embracing technological evolution to drive long-term growth.
As the global lithium market continues to evolve, driven by trends highlighted in market trends 2024, projects like the Mariana Salt Lake Project will remain pivotal in shaping the future of sustainable energy production. Ganfeng Lithium’s commitment to innovation, strategic expansion, and environmental stewardship positions it well to meet future challenges and opportunities on a global scale.
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