Monday 29 March 2021

Energy rEVolution Electric Race Supercharging Commodities Super Cycle.

Bloomberg


Guest post:

Energy rEVolution Electric Race Supercharging Commodities Super Cycle.


Imitation is superior to creation. The truth is that the former is simply more efficient than the latter. That truth grants imitators overwhelmingly better returns on time, effort and money than creation grants to the innovator. 


Spotify was not the first digital music service, nor did Apple possess the first portable music player. Diners Card created credit cards but lost the market to MasterCard/Visa and while EMI created CAT scans today the market is dominated by General Electric. Facebook and Google; further examples of companies allowing their seniors to establish a market before committing and eventually overtaking the market space via superior application of lessons learned at the cost of the innovator. 

Consider the following: In 1984, Chrysler invented the modern minivan. Less than a decade later, GM introduces its Spark minicar, while a Chinese imitation ‘QQ’ comes out within the same year and outsells the original six to one in mainland China. 

The year Tesla released its first Model S? 2012.

Tesla, the undeniable first-mover of a sensible scale within the EV space, may hold the consolidated advantage in the market with its fostered cult-like scale of pop-appeal and formidable deployment, but a late-mover advantage and its natural goldmine of hindsight is an envious high ground to behold. Tesla will therefore very well see its competitors slingshotting their way over the finish line for the largest market share for EVs in the coming years. 



Case in point: at half the price of a Tesla Model 3, the Renault Zoe is already hailed for having overtaken the Tesla Model 3 to win the title of Western Europe’s biggest-selling BEV in 2020.

Tesla’s competitors regaining the title of potatoes and mash to the wider consumer is great for three parties: the consumer, the competitor and the commodity supercycle bull. 



The European Union has led the global drive to combat global warming by pledging to become carbon neutral by 2050. This will involve transitioning the bloc to a utilities-based energy model in which consumers will use clean renewable energy. It stands to reason that the EU in turn will serve as a pioneer continent for the world’s wider transition towards electrified transportation methods. The success of Tesla's competitors within this continent, therefore, very well bodes ill for Tesla’s global future. 


As we’ve written previously, with smart plays like modularising battery supply and leveraging its economies of scale, Volkswagen, in particular, holds the greatest chance of slingshotting its progress on the back of imitation before leveraging its greater resources to bear the costs of developing new technologies when the time requires it to forge ahead of the back. Indeed, Deutsche Bank projects VW could beat Tesla’s global EV sales by next year. 

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner

Rising pressure on Tesla signals lower prices in the EV space, particularly with battery prices dropping faster than projected (97% from 1991). Lower prices in turn mean EVs become more affordable; a particular sticking point for the EV space - and Tesla’s particular Achilles heel - which still remains dominated by expensive prices for the wonder consumer. Parabolic numbers of EVs sold, not to mention relevant charging infrastructure, drives greater pressure on the raw materials and minerals required not just in terms of quantity of material but the number of customers and intensity of competitive bidding on it. 


So we see, that during the past three months, major banks and hedge funds have bet on a commodities bull market as government stimulus kicks in and the pandemic recedes.


‘Prices of copper, nickel, cobalt, platinum and rare earth elements are all inflating as electric vehicles and the wider electrification trend starts pulling on constrained resources. Nickel prices just closed shy of a five-year high, copper is up 30% from pre-COVID levels, and cobalt has jumped 25% in value in 2021 alone.’


Copper, in particular, is a major component of motors, batteries, inverters, wiring and recharging. Some electric vehicles can contain over a mile of copper wiring in internal windings.



Peter Tertzakian, in his article for the Financial Post, goes on to make an excellent point: ‘I should note that the solar industry’s achievements are often quoted as a template to how fast clean energy costs can come down. But let’s be careful. Made from silicon, the most plentiful element in the earth’s crust (think sand), solar panels don’t have a resource constraint problem. Many of the vital metals and minerals needed to electrify transport and other industrial segments of our economy don’t enjoy the same abundance.’


Our Company, TNR Gold is plugged into this Energy rEVolution with our Royalty Holdings on giant Copper and Lithium projects under the management by industry leaders like Ganfeng Lithium and McEwen Mining.  


Kirill Klip stated in his recent letter to TNR Gold shareholders: “Our forward-thinking approach is allowing us to integrate our strategic portfolio with the international capital markets, while maintaining efforts to minimize dilution for all our shareholders. During these favourable macro-economic conditions for gold and green energy metals, we have been enjoying an entirely new level of attention and participation from certain financial institutions. This will allow us to accelerate the development of the Shotgun Gold Project as well as continue to advance our royalty portfolio within the next chapter of business: Green Energy Metals. We maintain the potential of adding to our core royalty holdings on the Los Azules Copper Project with McEwen Mining and the Mariana Lithium Project under the management of Ganfeng Lithium.”


TNR Gold holds NSR royalties on projects containing copper, gold, silver and lithium metals. TNR Gold does not have to contribute any capital for the development of the Los Azules Copper Project and the Mariana Lithium Project. Neither does our NSR Royalty depend on the size of International Lithium’s potentially diluted ownership in the Mariana Lithium Project. The essence of our business model is to have industry leaders like McEwen Mining and Ganfeng Lithium as operators on the projects that will potentially generate royalty cashflows to contribute significant value for our shareholders.”




Please read my legal disclaimer. There is NO investment advice on any Kirill Klip feeds and blog. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before any investment decisions. 
Do Your Own Research.




Friday 26 March 2021

Bitcoin, MMT And Other Deepfake Video Games: "Fed Chair And Treasury Secretary Call For End Of Bitcoin And National Digital Tracking ID".


"Rep Bill Foster of IL gets the Fed Chair and Treasury Sec to go on the record about their dislike for digital currencies and the need for a National Digital Tracking ID system." 



Time is spinning out of control and we are moving very fast through all the fog of the Dark Crypto Web to the light at the end of the tunnel. For some hodlers, it can be a light of a freight train that is moving towards them while Crypto Whales are uploading their "Crypto Store of Wealth" to the herd. 



Mike Green's answer to the question: "What is the probability that FED will adopt Bitcoin?" - has received another confirmation from both the FED Chair and Treasury Secretary going on the record with Representative Bill Foster for Illinois. 



We are moving now fast-forward from the rhetorical question: "Will they ban Bitcoin?" to the rather dramatic one - "How will they ban Bitcoin?" For starters, if not a single money manager in the US or US publicly traded company can touch Bitcoin, all this "irrational exuberance" squared: "Who will buy it next?" - will be ended the same day. 



Today we have another sign that the FED and US Treasury are not buying it. If the last arguments left are laser eyes and that "other people" will be buying it - then you have to listen to Mike Green again very carefully.



We can discuss at length whether this is a real video or a "deepfake", and in the end, The FED is as "Federal" as "Federal Express", but we all better pay attention. Big Brothers and their FED hate competition and their messages are getting louder and clear by the day now.



Mr Market looks very tired of politicians pushing our luck. All that tax increase talk can bring this beautiful butterfly on the FED Head & Shoulders. The following waterfall will be felt like a river of stones coming down to earth. Too many charts are broken already. 


After last Friday block trades, Credit Swiss and Nomura are warning already about material losses, upon default on the margin calls. 


"This Time It Is Different" - are the most dangerous words in the investment world. Fundamentals never matter until suddenly for many unprepared they do. Stay safe.




Gold - The Catalyst: Bitcoin And Other Video Games Of The MMT Age. 


 

Every bubble needs great people to make it great. Gold is the ultimate hedge and now confirms that it can provide a hedge not only for portfolios constructed with stocks and bonds but for all portfolios including cryptocurrencies as well.



Nobody knows the future, but for all brave hodlers, I can suggest that by allocating just 10% of your crypto portfolio into Gold you can get better sleep at night. If Crypto Whales who are pumping Bitcoin and selling it to you are right and its price will go to 1,000,000 - this investment in Gold will be a very small price to pay to be on your own yacht. You can have your own toilet made of that Gold in that case. 



If Crypto Whales are playing dirty with your desire for Freedom - you will be able to stay alive with your holding of Gold to enjoy your Freedom even after all your "Crypto Store of Value" will go down that proverbial toilet. Do your homework, make informed decisions and stay safe.



Jim Puplava and John Ing are translating today for us all things "crypto" in English and discussing "New Normal", old Inflation and Gold in the MMT Age. It is highly recommended for all to listen in order to realise that Bitcoin and other Video Games of the MMT Age are just that - Games. These games are played by Crypto Whales with Gamers and have nothing to do with the real values in the real world. You do not even have to go as far as EMP, just remember that all virtual games are virtual and some very ruthless and determined people are planning the real War Games. 



Bitcoin has become one of the main soft targets in the West and deserves national attention as a matter of state military risk management. Bitcoin's crash will not only bring a brutal awakening to "the brave fighters of the FED", but can bring very important companies like my beloved Tesla down spreading the shock waves across a very fragile overleveraged economy. The higher Bitcoin goes now, the more "great people" are getting sucked into and being sacrificed for this "Mother of All Bubbles" - the bigger shock will be for all parties involved after that lethal strike.   



The last Gold bugs left are jumping on the Bitcoin bandwagon and getting lost in the Dark Crypto Web with their money being Tethered. To be brutally honest, I am still puzzled how the same old as this world "investment thesis" can still fly even at this recent Bitcoin altitude. “Just imagine if every Chinese family will buy a mechanical clock”. I guess it’s all about things that hardly anybody can really understand, memes and laser eyes. 


The old beautiful law of leverage can produce miracles on the way up if it is applied properly. The same law has already crashed the whole civilisations. Not everybody is ready to dive really deep with me to learn about "Rehypothecation Silos in the UK" - MMT collateral pyramids on the grand scale - the driving engine of modern financial miracles. It can provide you with a better understanding of the real risks involved in the overleveraged financial system. In my very personal opinion, all these Dark Web Crypto scams are worse squared. 



"Welcome to Bitcoin "market" with a price discovery driven by Tether digital printing press instead of FED's FIAT "digital press" and Elon Musk Twitter feed. Do brave FED fighters on blockchain even realise that?"    


Who owns what in Bahamas and Bermuda? Who owes to whom? Will everybody get tasered after they have been happily Tethering their money with Bitcoin on its way up? We will see, but today a lot of people should pray that my beloved Elon Musk will not completely take his eyes off the ball fighting his demons after becoming "technoking".  


FOMO is the main driving force of this part of the very tired bull market in equities. Bitcoin with its cryptic prophets and the main appeal as a promise of a possible "Getting Rich Quick" Ponzi scheme is always wrapped up in goldish Gold 2.0 crypto foil. This is where we have the glimpse of things to come to the Gold market after Silver Squeeze. Everybody hates Gold now, will you love it as FOMO at $15,000?


Bitcoin used to be Gold 2.0 - the Real Money, but better. First, it lost its quality as a method of payment. If all pizzas bought with Bitcoin will fly to the moon, who is going to use it as intermedium to conduct commercial transactions? Now it is pumped by the whales to the herd as “the store of value”. This value depends on whether Apple will buy it tomorrow or one of the brave corporate balance sheet treasury investors in crypto will go bust. 


What will happen with this "store of value" if Elon Musk decides to sell all Bitcoin and put Tesla treasury funds in Dogecoin instead? What will be the next value proposition - NFTed memes and laser eyes? For your personal risk management, two very simple things are very important to understand. 

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner

The first one, the Twitter Whales with laser eyes who are pumping up and selling Bitcoin to you today at $60,000 will be fine even if Bitcoin will crash tomorrow to $30,000 and will never come back. They will be more than fine if they really "bought it at $1." You will lose half of your capital. And second, Elon Musk can lose $40 Billion dollars after his bitcoin adventure with Tesla, he will be fine. Not a lot of young revolutionaries who are fighting FED on the dark web blockchains will ever recover after losing $40,000. Never forget it and trade accordingly, just do not call it an investment.



The potential realisation by the herd that if you do not know who is "the sucker" at the Bitcoin poker table - it is you, can bring the overnight Catalyst for the Gold market. 



And, please, never forget that Big Brothers and their FED hate competition and can let play you in revolutionaries for a while, but nobody is allowed to challenge "the right given by God" to "the right and chosen people" to mint the FIAT currency of any sorts. 


India and China may be ringing this bell for Bitcoin first for their own citizens now. After I have published this post yesterday, I came across two podcasts with Mike Green today. Invest two hours of your time and listen carefully before you get lost in the Dark Crypto Web. My analysis of Bitcoin as an example of the "Mother of All Bubbles" and National Security Risk was based on the big picture view and market observations. 



Mike Green provides us with the best and clear logic, which I found so far, translating all cryptic slogans and separating all woke flies from your hard-earned hamburgers. Needless to say and it is not very shocking for us here, Cryptic Prophets with laser eyes sound very plain after being translated into English and Twitter Whales can not address any major topics of concern in-depth after being taken out of the Twitter comfort zone with its 240 characters limit. 


But the most troubling for me personally is the realisation that "technological expert' cannot refute on the spot the technological possibility of attack by Non-Economic Actors on the Bitcoin network. The technical possibility of such an attack by any of the state-level players put all these Crypto Video Games of the MMT Age in a totally new military risk assessment perspective of the War Games in the 21st century. As Mike Green commented: "We are willingly participating in the system that is dominated by those who has explicitly stated bad intentions towards the United States." 


Who has invented this National Security Risk wrapped in a fake goldish foil which is growing exponentially and has been marketed as Gold 2.0 to the herd in the West? It remains to be answered in the future, but your money deserves your respect today. Understand first what kind of games you are playing and who is holding all the aces. The very old Game of Music Chairs will drive the very simple exit strategy for the Whales holding all the aces. Who will pull the plug first? You need to convert your paper gains into real capital gains before others will do it. Once the amount of money flowing in becomes smaller than the amount of money rushing out, this bubble will burst. The higher it goes now, the deeper will be the fall for those buying at the top of the bubble. But even without this dramatic and traumatic experience for so many good people, Gold has the major friend now and FED's driving force with unlimited money printing and Negative Real Rates.


Jim Puplava and John Ing are discussing today in depth all these factors, which will propel Gold on its next leg up in this young Bull market. The best Gold miners are literally printing money at these prices of Gold already. 



These seasoned market veterans are confirming my observations that M&A will be the main driving force for the junior mining space. Major Gold miners are facing Peak Gold Reserves and need new giant projects in the stable mining jurisdiction just to continue the same rate of production.



Below you can find more information for your own research on the TNR Gold relationship with developing Donlin Gold Mining Camp and my own personal vision of how the Donlin Gold project can potentially grow into a 50 million-plus oz Au resource project and become a major Gold Mining Camp in the world based on the U.S. soil. How is this relevant, what is the relationship between Donlin and Shotgun Gold? 


My belief is TNR's Shotgun Gold Project can potentially grow and become a foremost, immediate satellite site Gold deposit to Donlin Gold's Mining Camp infrastructure. This vision is based on our exploration work and academic studies like the ones from Dr Tim Baker in which Shotgun Gold Project is not only listed alongside Donlin Creek as one of the "Major Porphyry Gold Deposits" but is also projected to contain the similar porphyry intrusion-related type system as Donlin. 





Please read my legal disclaimer. There is NO investment advice on any Kirill Klip feeds and blog. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before any investment decisions. 
Do Your Own Research.




TNR Gold Lithium Royalty Holding: Ganfeng Increases Stake In Mariana Lithium Closer To 100% And Moves Project Towards Pilot Scale Test Stage - "The US $25 Million Budget Is Proposed For 2021".


We have another set of very good public news coming from the Mariana Lithium Project in Argentina operated by the giant from China Ganfeng Lithium. The new "Plan of Activities for 2021" is moving the giant Lithium project forward after Ganfeng has increased its stake in Mariana Lithium JV further closer to 100% with 88.9% ownership according to the latest public information. 


The new US $25 million budget was proposed for 2021. The plan of activities is set for 2021 and the Mariana Lithium Environmental Impact Report was already presented to mining authorities in Salta


I am expecting to see a further increase in Ganfeng Lithium's ownership of Mariana Lithium moving closer to 100%, as their JV partner "... has decided to temporarily cease to make contributions to the Mariana Joint Venture Project in order to concentrate on other strategic projects" in 2020 (SEDAR November 30, 2020), unless this position has been changed for 2021. 


It is important to note here that TNR Gold does not have to contribute any capital for the development of Mariana Lithium and our NSR Royalty does not depend on the size of ILC's potentially diluted ownership in the Mariana Lithium Project.   


TNR Gold NSR Royalty Holding moves one more step closer to the potential future cash flow generation for our shareholders. Tesla Energy rEVolution is moving into the exponential stage of growth in EVs sales. We will need a lot of Lithium and the best Lithium companies will produce it. Now you can better understand why I am investing in our Company again and below you can find a lot of information for your own research. Stay safe.


"Last February 10, Ganfeng Lithium's top subsidiary in Salta, Argentina, Litio Minera Argentina S.A. (LMA) formally presented the Environmental Impact Report (EIR) of its lithium-brine project, Mariana, to the Provincial Mining Office in Salta, Argentina." 
Ganfeng Lithium



 

I’m a strong believer in personal interest,” stated Mr. Klip. “It’s very encouraging when it’s aligned with that of the shareholders. To that end, I’m pleased that other insiders of the Company have joined me in our recent private placements. While I am the largest individual shareholder of TNR Gold, it’s crucial for me that all of us at the TNR Gold Team are personally motivated to succeed. It’s because of this that shareholders can trust us to advance the Company forward with great passion. Our recent private placement was oversubscribed and we are well-positioned now to develop further our portfolio of strategic assets in gold and Energy rEVolution metals.

 


Kirill Klip continued, “Our forward-thinking approach is allowing us to integrate our strategic portfolio with the international capital markets, while maintaining efforts to minimize dilution for all our shareholders. During these favourable macro-economic conditions for gold and green energy metals, we have been enjoying an entirely new level of attention and participation from certain financial institutions.

 

 

This will allow us to accelerate the development of the Shotgun Gold Project as well as continue to advance our royalty portfolio within the next chapter of business: Green Energy Metals. We maintain the potential of adding to our core royalty holdings on the Los Azules Copper Project with McEwen Mining and the Mariana Lithium Project under the management of Ganfeng Lithium.”



TNR Gold holds NSR royalties on projects containing copper, gold, silver and lithium metals. TNR Gold does not have to contribute any capital for the development of Los Azules Copper Project and Mariana Lithium Project. Neither does our NSR Royalty depend on the size of International Lithium’s potentially diluted ownership in the Mariana Lithium Project. The essence of our business model is to have industry leaders like McEwen Mining and Ganfeng Lithium as operators on the projects that will potentially generate royalty cashflows to contribute significant value for our shareholders."



Lithium prices made the bottom and LCE price jumped 97.5% this year in China, according to the Benchmark Mineral Intelligence report published in an article on March 16, 2021. In order to meet the exponentially rising EVs demand for batteries, the Lithium industry must produce over 1M T of LCE annually from 2026. 




Last year just 369,000 T of LCE was produced globally. Only the strongest lithium players who have access to the capital and technology will be able to address numerous technical challenges in order to deliver Battery Grade Lithium. 



Now you can better understand why GEM Royalty TNR Gold Team is really excited with all recent developments in the electric space. We do not have to contribute any capital for Mariana Lithium Project development and our potential future NSR Royalty cash flow is becoming more and more feasibleYou can find more public information for your own research in the TNR Gold Investor presentation below and follow Mariana Lithium Project development on my blog and the updated Ganfeng Lithium website. 





Please read my legal disclaimer. There is NO investment advice on any Kirill Klip feeds and blog. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before any investment decisions. 
Do Your Own Research.