Saturday 31 January 2015

Peter Schiff: GDP Growth Slows Sharply in 4th Quarter: 2015 to be Worse.



  What is the real number of Q4 GDP? The punchline: if the deflator was the same like in Q3 - 1% and not assumed 0% for Q4, GDP was only 1.6%. We have a very sharp decline in GDP growth from Q3 to Q4. And the Oil Crash and Strong Dollar are only making their way through the financial system.

Gold And January Barometer Flashing Red: Stock Market Warning Signal



  "Nobody knows the future, but some indicators can put us into the right direction. Strong Dollar is already hurting US Economy and Oil Crash will bring more pain to the economy. Gold Bugs Index HUI has painted the Bottom and is challenging the important resistance on the upside. Once the realisation that US Dollar cannot rise forever without pushing all the air from the stock market bubble hits headlines - the FED stance on the rate hike will change dramatically. China buying record amount of Gold and advising its citizens against buying US Dollars is another part of this big picture.
  For our Gold mining sector and resources in general we do not need any End of The World scenario - just some reallocation of the capital from the overinflated assets into the beaten into the ground ones. All Central banks will be driving the war on Deflation to save Economic Growth, it is impossible without Resources coming out of this Recession. Gold will show us when Central Banks will succeed in this battle, mind the manipulation masquerade. When and what to buy will be your choice as usual. Read more."

Alaska - NOVAGOLD Marks 2014 by Reaching Important 

Milestones in Advancing Permitting of Donlin Gold.



  We have another positive release from NOVAGOLD for Gold mining in Alaska. Now the Gold price above $1,300 should bring interest back to this safe mining jurisdiction and TNR Gold Shotgun Gold project.


TNR Gold: Shotgun Gold Project Fact Sheet January 2015.




Gold And January Barometer Flashing Red: Stock Market Warning Signal



  Nobody knows the future, but some indicators can put us into the right direction. Strong Dollar is already hurting US Economy and Oil Crash will bring more pain to the economy. Gold Bugs Index HUI has painted the Bottom and is challenging the important resistance on the upside. Once the realisation that US Dollar cannot rise forever without pushing all the air from the stock market bubble hits headlines - the FED stance on the rate hike will change dramatically. China buying record amount of Gold and advising its citizens against buying US Dollars is another part of this big picture.
  For our Gold mining sector and resources in general we do not need any End of The World scenario - just some reallocation of the capital from the overinflated assets into the beaten into the ground ones. All Central banks will be driving the war on Deflation to save Economic Growth, it is impossible without Resources coming out of this Recession. Gold will show us when Central Banks will succeed in this battle, mind the manipulation masquerade. When and what to buy will be your choice as usual.



  
  NOVAGOLD is back on the radar screens these days with its very positive news from Alaska. Please notice the Buy Volume signal last December.


China Buys 202 t of Gold in 3 weeks - Koss Jansen: SGE Withdrawals Week 3, 2015: 71 tonnes!



  We have a nice short squeeze today in the gold market and Gold is marching back towards $1,300 threshold after being smashed this week. U.S. GDP for Q4 came below expectations at 2.6% and there are more and more talks about the strong dollar killing export and corporate earnings. The upbeat on economy FED can face a very different reality after the Oil crash will make its way throughout the system with massive layoffs, cuts on CAPEX and even ... stop of shares buybacks.
  Meanwhile Koos Jansen reports that in China people are buying Gold in record amounts, every dip in price is being bought literally and first 3 weeks in 2015 have seen 202 t of Gold withdrawn from SGE.
  Miners start to move up again and NOVAGOLD is quite on fire after its positive news from Alaska, hopefully our Shotgun Project will get the proper attention with gold breaking above $1,300.



Alaska - NOVAGOLD Marks 2014 by Reaching Important 

Milestones in Advancing Permitting of Donlin Gold.



  We have another positive release from NOVAGOLD for Gold mining in Alaska. Now the Gold price above $1,300 should bring interest back to this safe mining jurisdiction and TNR Gold Shotgun Gold project.


TNR Gold: Shotgun Gold Project Fact Sheet January 2015.




Kitco:

The "January Barometer" is a popular stock market indicator devised by Yale Hirsch in 1972, editor-at-large of the Stock Trader's Almanac.
The premise is simple. As the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year.
If the S&P 500 is up at the end up January that foretells of a bullish year for stocks, and on the flip side if the S&P 500 is down at the end of January that warns of bearish year in stocks.
Let's look at the numbers as January comes to an end:
  • The S&P closed out January down 3%,
  • nearby Comex gold futures gained 8% year-to-date.
Does this January Barometer indicator actually work? Market analysts say yes.
"Based on S&P 500 data going back to 1928, January is a good predictor of the year. When January is up, the year is up 80% of the time with an average return of 13.0%. When January is down, the year is up only 44% of the time and the S&P 500 has an average decline of 1.9%," according to a BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research report.
Another factor that warns of potential disruption in the stock market in 2015 is the sheer age of the current bull market phase. The latest bull market cycle in stocks began in March 2009. "There is a good chance we will celebrate year six in March," said Sam Stovall, U.S. equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ.
"But, only two of the prior 11 bull markets since WWII made it to year seven," Stovall added. "We are skating on thin ice. The trend is your friend until it ends."
Historically, the start of a Fed tightening cycle has also proven to be negative factor for stocks and analysts are still widely expecting a US rate hike this year.
Stovall studied the impact of interest rate tightening cycles since World War II, even if that only meant one rate increase.
He found that stocks reacted negatively in the six months prior to the first rate increase:
  • In six instances since World War II, the stock market saw a pullback of 5-10%,
  • in four instances since World War II the stock market underwent a correction of 10-20% and
  • in three instances a bear market in stocks, which includes a retreat of 20% or more ensued.
What could this all mean for gold?
Gold and stocks generally tend to have an inverse correlation. As investors shift out of paper assets, such as stocks, cyclical tendencies support a move into hard assets like gold. A pullback, correction or bear market in stocks could send more investors into the safety of gold. Stay tuned. The year is just getting started. Kitco."

Friday 30 January 2015

China Buys 202 t of Gold in 3 weeks - Koos Jansen: SGE Withdrawals Week 3, 2015: 71 tonnes!





  We have a nice short squeeze today in the gold market and Gold is marching back towards $1,300 threshold after being smashed this week. U.S. GDP for Q4 came below expectations at 2.6% and there are more and more talks about the strong dollar killing export and corporate earnings. The upbeat on economy FED can face a very different reality after the Oil crash will make its way throughout the system with massive layoffs, cuts on CAPEX and even ... stop of shares buybacks. 
  Meanwhile Koos Jansen reports that in China people are buying Gold in record amounts, every dip in price is being bought literally and first 3 weeks in 2015 have seen 202 t of Gold withdrawn from SGE.
  Miners start to move up again and NOVAGOLD is quite on fire after its positive news from Alaska, hopefully our Shotgun Project will get the proper attention with gold breaking above $1,300.



Alaska - NOVAGOLD Marks 2014 by Reaching Important 

Milestones in Advancing Permitting of Donlin Gold.



  We have another positive release from NOVAGOLD for Gold mining in Alaska. Now the Gold price above $1,300 should bring interest back to this safe mining jurisdiction and TNR Gold Shotgun Gold project.


TNR Gold: Shotgun Gold Project Fact Sheet January 2015.





Koos Jansen:

BullionStar.

BOOM: SGE Withdrawals Week 3, 2015: 71 tonnes!



As I wrote last time on data from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), in week 2 of 2015 withdrawals from the vaults of the SGE (that equal Chinese wholesale demand) came in extremely high at 70 tonnes; the third highest amount ever. In week 3 (January 19 – 23), though, the Chinese withdrew even more at 71 tonnes, up 0.89 % w/w, and a new third highest amount ever. Year to date 202 tonnes have been withdrawn fro the SGE vaults, up 15 % y/y. Like last week, this was happening while the price of gold was rising sharply, staggering numbers.

Screen Shot 2015-01-30 at 3.01.34 PM
Screen Shot 2015-01-30 at 2.56.15 PM
Blue (本周交割量) is weekly gold withdrawn from the vaults in Kg, green (累计交割量) is the total YTD.
Corrected by the volume traded on the Shanghai International Gold Exchange (SGEI), withdrawals in week 3 were at least 65 tonnes (read this post for a comprehensive explanation of the relationship between SGEI trading volume and withdrawals). Year to date withdrawals corrected by SGEI volume were at least 189 tonnes.
Shanghai Gold Exchange SGE withdrawals delivery 2015 week 3, dips
Shanghai Gold Exchange SGE withdrawals delivery only 2014 - 2015 week 3, dips
Furthermore, the end of day premium of the SGE main physical gold contract, Au9999, has been positive throughout all of week 3. This means scrap supply was not abundant over this period – a discount, or negative premium, can’t be arbitraged by foreigners as bullion export from China is prohibited. Estimating scrap/recycled gold that supplied the SGE at 4 tonnes and mine production at 9 tonnes, sets imported gold for week 3 somewhere in between 52 and 58 tonnes.
It’s still a mystery why mainstream media are not tracking weekly SGE withdrawals. I’ve read all over the news that Russia’s central bank has added 152 tonnes of gold in total to its reserves in 2014. In perspective, this is approximately the same amount of gold China has imported in the first three weeks of 2015. In my post China Continues To Drain Global Gold Inventory I have, once again, pointed out that import numbers derived from SGE withdrawals are for 95 % covered by export from the UK, Switzerland, Hong Kong and the US. These countries disclose only non-monetary gold trade, which support my assumption PBOC purchases are an invisible side show from public gold trade numbersand SGE withdrawals.
Chinese domestic mining has been roughly 27 tonnes over the first three weeks of 2015, which is not exported. All this gold (import and mine) is being sold through the SGE. Until I run into evidence that states the contrary, the PBOC does not buy any gold through the SGE, but most likely through proxies in Hong Kong or London. So, PBOC purchases have to be added to the tonnage sold through the SGE. According to Deutsche Bank the PBOC has purchased roughly 500 tonnes a year since 2010. Go figure.
Thomson Reuters GFMS released the GFMS Gold Survey 2014 – Update 2 on Thursday. The report states Chinese consumer gold demand in 2014 was 866 tonnes.
Screen Shot 2015-01-30 at 4.45.09 PM
My regular readers will not be surprised I dispute this number; in 2014 China imported at least 1,200 tonnes, mined 451 tonnes and according to GFMS’ numbers scrap accounted for 182 tonnes. So supply was at least 1,833 tonnes, yet consumer demand was 866 tonnes. Quite a gap, 967 tonnes. 
Screen Shot 2015-01-30 at 5.12.24 PMThis gap was at least 737 tonnes in 2013. In the table above taken from the Gold Yearbook 2013 published by the China Gold Association (CGA), we can see import was 1,507 tonnes (blue) and Chinese domestic and overseas mining accounted for 445 tonnes (purple), if we add GFMS’ scrap supply number for 2013, which is 144 tonnes, total supply in 2013 was 2,096. The gap between 2,096 and 1,359 tonnes is 737 tonnes. Neglecting scrap supply disclosed by the CGA (green).
In the report GFMS states “demand does not include transfers of physical gold between financial organizations or gold used to support the OTC market”.
In forthcoming posts I will expand on the differences in metrics used all across the globe (by the WGC, GFMS, CGA, CPM, me) to get a better understanding why Chinese demand numbers are so divergent.
In any case the 0.6 metric tonnes of gold sold in one day in just one shopping mall in Beijing in January, 2015, was not gold used in transfers between financial organizations…
Chinese new year gold goat 2015 1
Beijing January 3, 2015
Koos Jansen
E-mail Koos Jansen on: koos.jansen@bullionstar.com"

Powered By Lithium: Spy Video - Testing of Tesla Model X.



  It looks like Tesla Model X to me. There are some ideas on the web that it can be Tesla Model III, but before the image of Tesla Model III was different. Hopefully, we will find out soon. They are coming! Very soon we all will appreciate very bold vision of Elon Musk for the future of electric cars and why we need not just one, but hundreds of Gigafactories. Boston-Power with our strategic partner Ganfeng Lithium already have taken notice.


Elon Musk Q&A At Tesla Motors International Auto Show Event.


There are quite a few very interesting bits of information in this interview. Tesla Model X will be priced as Tesla Model S. This year is all about Tesla Model X with launch in the summer 2015. Next year Tesla Model III is coming. Supercharger Network will allow to travel from Quebec to Vancouver! GM Bolt is not the threat for Tesla: "eventually all cars will have to be electric."



Boston-Power Aims to Rival Tesla With Gigawatt Lithium Battery Factories.


 "Eric Wesoff reports on very interesting development in China. Boston Power is building its own Megafactory to produce lithium batteries and even the super cheap urban EV for ... $8,000. It will be the game changer for the booming market for EVs in Chinawhere EV sales are up 320% last year. We have discussed LG Chem Megafactory before and now you can appreciate more recent move of our strategic partner Ganfeng Lithium. China is building very fast its new strategic industry - electric cars. International Lithium is the part of the vertically integrated Lithium business with Ganfeng Lithium in China. Read more."




Elon Musk Interview: World Needs Hundreds of Gigafactories.



  Elon Musk talks about the Gigafactory and incredible numbers behind his vision: "Everything will be fully electric, except for Rockets!" In China his vision can be the only way forward with personal mobility due to the terrible level of air pollution.

'Bulletproof' Battery: Kevlar Membrane For Safer, Thinner Lithium Rechargeables.


  


  Interesting news on another development to increase the safety of Lithium batteries. Technology is moving fast and volume production for the lithium batteries will bring us cheaper and even more reliable batteries for the mass market of electric cars.


Boston-Power Aims to Rival Tesla With Gigawatt Lithium Battery Factories.


 "Eric Wesoff reports on very interesting development in China. Boston Power is building its own Megafactory to produce lithium batteries and even the super cheap urban EV for ... $8,000. It will be the game changer for the booming market for EVs in Chinawhere EV sales are up 320% last year. We have discussed LG Chem Megafactory before and now you can appreciate more recent move of our strategic partner Ganfeng Lithium. China is building very fast its new strategic industry - electric cars. International Lithium is the part of the vertically integrated Lithium business with Ganfeng Lithium in China. Read more."




Michigan News:


'Bulletproof' battery: Kevlar membrane for safer, thinner lithium rechargeables


ANN ARBOR—New battery technology from the University of Michigan should be able to prevent the kind of fires that grounded Boeing 787 Dreamliners in 2013.
The innovation is an advanced barrier between the electrodes in a lithium-ion battery.
Made with nanofibers extracted from Kevlar, the tough material in bulletproof vests, the barrier stifles the growth of metal tendrils that can become unwanted pathways for electrical current.
A U-M team of researchers also founded Ann Arbor-based Elegus Technologies to bring this research from the lab to market. Mass production is expected to begin in the fourth quarter 2016.
"Unlike other ultra strong materials such as carbon nanotubes, Kevlar is an insulator," said Nicholas Kotov, the Joseph B. and Florence V. Cejka Professor of Engineering. "This property is perfect for separators that need to prevent shorting between two electrodes."
Lithium-ion batteries work by shuttling lithium ions from one electrode to the other. This creates a charge imbalance, and since electrons can't go through the membrane between the electrodes, they go through a circuit instead and do something useful on the way.
But if the holes in the membrane are too big, the lithium atoms can build themselves into fern-like structures, called dendrites, which eventually poke through the membrane. If they reach the other electrode, the electrons have a path within the battery, shorting out the circuit. This is how the battery fires on the Boeing 787 are thought to have started.
"The fern shape is particularly difficult to stop because of its nanoscale tip," said Siu On Tung, a graduate student in Kotov's lab, as well as chief technology officer at Elegus. "It was very important that the fibers formed smaller pores than the tip size."
While the widths of pores in other membranes are a few hundred nanometers, or a few hundred-thousandths of a centimeter, the pores in the membrane developed at U-M are 15-to-20 nanometers across. They are large enough to let individual lithium ions pass, but small enough to block the 20-to-50-nanometer tips of the fern-structures.
The researchers made the membrane by layering the fibers on top of each other in thin sheets. This method keeps the chain-like molecules in the plastic stretched out, which is important for good lithium-ion conductivity between the electrodes, Tung said.
"The special feature of this material is we can make it very thin, so we can get more energy into the same battery cell size, or we can shrink the cell size," said Dan VanderLey, an engineer who helped found Elegus through U-M's Master of Entrepreneurship program. "We've seen a lot of interest from people looking to make thinner products."
Thirty companies have requested samples of the material.
Kevlar's heat resistance could also lead to safer batteries as the membrane stands a better chance of surviving a fire than most membranes currently in use.
While the team is satisfied with the membrane's ability to block the lithium dendrites, they are currently looking for ways to improve the flow of loose lithium ions so that batteries can charge and release their energy more quickly.
The study, "A dendrite-suppressing solid ion conductor from aramid nanofibers," will appear online Jan. 27 in Nature Communications.
The research was funded primarily by the National Science Foundation under its Chemical, Bioengineering, Environmental and Transport Systems and its Innovation Corp. Partial funding also came from Office of Naval Research and Air Force Office Scientific Research. Kotov is a professor of chemical engineering, biomedical engineering, materials science and engineering and macromolecular science and engineering. Michigan news."

Thursday 29 January 2015

Jim Wyckoff: Gold And Currency Wars: “I Am very Worried”



"Kitco News speaks with Jim Wyckoff to get his thoughts on Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement and the much anticipated growth data due for release in the U.S. on Friday. Commenting on gold’s reaction to the Fed meeting, Jim says, “the gold market just traded sideways at first, did not change much from levels just before the FOMC statement, but then, about an hour later, we saw the gold market start to selloff.” He adds that the current downtrend in gold prices on Thursday is simply “follow-through selling pressure” spilled over from the day before. “What we’re seeing on Thursday can be characterized also as just a profit-taking pullback,” he says. Wyckoff also notes that the near-term price uptrend is still in place for gold. “Just barely, but it’s still in place…the bulls still do have a slight near-term technical advantage.” Tune in now to see why currency wars are a real concern for Jim and how he sees it affecting the gold market this year. Kitco News, January 29, 2015."


Alaska - NOVAGOLD Marks 2014 by Reaching Important Milestones in Advancing Permitting of Donlin Gold.






 "We have another positive release from NOVAGOLD for Gold mining in Alaska. Now the Gold price above $1,300 should bring interest back to this safe mining jurisdiction and TNR Gold Shotgun Gold project. Read more."

Who Is Manipulating The Gold Market And Why?



  Gold is under pressure today and sliding from $1,300 level reached last week towards $1,250. Good day to check on Gold fundamentals with Chris Martenson and Gold manipulation with Chris Powell from GATA. The key to the Bull market is price action with higher lows and higher highs ... Gold is making it so far from last December. How long the manipulation by Central Banks can take its place and distort all markets and Gold primarily? China can be the answer and Jim Rickards even goes as far as suggesting that China is benefiting from this arranged manipulation accumulating all available Gold now. I do not know whether China participate in this manipulation with FED and other Central Banks, but it is definitely buying all the dips so far!

Koos Jansen: Booming Gold Demand in China - SGE Withdrawals 70 Tonnes In Week 2, 2015.






Alaska - NOVAGOLD Marks 2014 by Reaching Important Milestones in Advancing Permitting of Donlin Gold.






 "We have another positive release from NOVAGOLD for Gold mining in Alaska. Now the Gold price above $1,300 should bring interest back to this safe mining jurisdiction and TNR Gold Shotgun Gold project. Read more."

TNR Gold: Shotgun Gold Project Fact Sheet January 2015.



"The mineralization style observed at Shotgun Ridge bears a strong resemblance to the 40 million ounce deposit at the Donlin Gold project operated by Barrick and NovaGold," stated recently appointed director Greg Johnson, "The similar age and host intrusive rocks suggest that, with continued exploration, there is significant potential to locate larger volumes of mineralization in and around Shotgun Ridge."





China Mining: MMG To Begin Pre-extraction At Las Bambas Despite Copper Rout.




  This is how China operates, planing is going for decades and not just for the next Q filing, best projects are carefully chosen and taken out when the prices of commodities are depressed. Once the decision is made after very careful DD and consideration, projects will be moved forward step by step aiming at the supply of commodities for already existing demand in China. I know it first hand from our strategic partnership with Ganfeng Lithium. 
  When will we make another one on our Shotgun Gold project or Los Azules Copper Royalty - I cannot tell you, but we are working hard to make it. Why do they need them and why in Latin America, like Los Azules Copper of McEwen Mining? Please find a few links to build the big picture:


Real Economic Stimulus: China To Build $242bn High-speed Railway - Moscow To Beijing In 2 days.



Here comes the real economic stimulus from China. This enormous undertaking will provide jobs and will require massive amount of construction materials and metals for this infrastructure. Actually, China is talking about linking Singapore and U.S. Once even the shale oil will be gone, high-speed railways will allow the intercontinental travel in the future.


Commodities: China To Boost Investment In Latin America To $250 Billion Within Decade.




  "We can see how China is positioning itself on the global chessboard in order to preserve the stability and economic growth in these challenging times. After announcement of $1 Trillion infrastructure development plans now comes the very logical step to secure commodities supply from Latin America to implement these plans. Read more."

Metals: China Fast-Tracks $1 Trillion in Projects to Spur Growth.

  "Now we can put all China's world-wide acquisitions of the metal projects in the perspective. This huge stimulus plan for infrastructure development will need a secure supply of metals and China is already on the road to get it!Read more."

TNR Gold Los Azules Copper: Chinese M&A - Watch Out For Las Bambas Effect.


  "Frik Els provides a very good insight into the Chinese deal culture and mining M&A particularly. Las Bambas deal is not only the very good indicator of the turning mining cycle, but also provides guidance for the smaller companies in China to go on The Hunt For Copper and other commodities. You can witness this approach in our particular case of Strategic Commodities with International Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium as well. Read More."



Mining:


MMG to begin pre-extraction at Las Bambas despite copper rout

Cecilia Jamasmie | January 29, 2015
MMG to begin pre-extraction at Las Bambas despite copper rout
Construction of Las Bambas, capable of an output of more than 2 million tonnes in the first five years of its opening, was 80% complete at the end of 2014.
Copper weak prices, with the metal approaching a fresh five-year low early this week, have done nothing to discourage completion of MMG’s Las Bambas in Peru, one of the world's biggest mines of the red metal.
According BNamericas (in Spanish), construction of the US$7bn massive project, acquired from Glencore (LON:GLEN) in August 2014, is going strong and MMG expects production at Ferrobamba, one of the four deposits that make up the operation, to start early next year.
Glencore had to sell the project or other assets by September in order to win China's approval for its takeover of miner Xstrata in 2013, as Beijing feared the merged group would hold too much sway over global copper supply.
Construction of Las Bambas, capable of an output of more than 2 million tonnes in the first five years of its opening, was 80% complete at the end of 2014, and MMG expects that between $2.7 billion and $3.2 billion will have to be spent between August last year and when the first production of copper concentrate starts. Mining."