Wednesday 31 January 2018

The Real Lithium Scare: China's State Grid Is Getting Ready For 100M Electric Cars By 2030 - Can We Reach 200M EVs Globally By That Time?




China's State Grid Is Getting Ready For 100 Million Electric Cars By 2030 In The Lithium Race - Can We Reach 200 Million EVs Globally By That Time?



SQM Lithium OverSupply Scare 2.0 - Now Let's Start The Serious Conversation About The Security Of Lithium Supply For Tesla Energy rEVolution.





LEGAL DISCLAIMER

Please read legal disclaimer. There is no investment advice on this blog. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before any investment decisions. DYOR.

SQM Lithium Oversupply Scare 2.0: SQM 2010: "We Can Supply Lithium For 1000 years". SQM 2018: "Maybe We Can Produce 216k T Of Lithium LCE In 2025"






My dear overestimated by social media overextended family of friends and followers, I do hope that the following warning will come as a surprise only to those who are recovering from pot-related investing. After all, to follow Warren Buffett's investment advice you have to "kick the tires" and try all the products yourself ... As we already know, all normal people are spending 10 times more time on research how to pick up the best next flat screen 4k HD TV than on a due diligence on "a sure stock" which will make all dreams come true. (I have made it up - 10 times, the actual number is ... much higher.) 


There is only one sure thing which was recently discovered by mathematicians from CIA which will make you filthy rich very fast - Bitcoin, all other brave investment ideas must be taken with suspicion and proper due diligence. In short, do not buy everything, please, I am talking about on this blog and read my disclaimers as usual.




Only the history will tell us how Mr Market is going to treat the last week's events in the "Opaque Lithium Kingdom". Was it the best entry point of the decade just before the real exponential take off in the growth of Electric Cars entering mass-market territory or a sobering warning, that everything without blockchain in the name can go faster down than up? History teaches us that bull markets are taking stairs going up and bear markets prefer elevators going down. I do not know the future, I only can try to remember it. There is no investment advice on this blog and you can only read Chronicles of Energy rEVolution here.

SQM Lithium Oversupply Scare 2.0 is nothing new to those who were born after 2000. I still vividly remember the 2nd Lithium Supply And Markets conference held in Las Vegas in 2010. "The Lithium Big Three" one after another was putting buckets of ice brine on all excited crowd in the room. "We can supply lithium for the next 1000 years" - it was a very clear message. I am still thinking that somebody with a good for $250 million chequebooks could buy all lithium wannabee juniors in the room on the spot. Needless to say, how much brine has passed from those times, sweet memories - some of those juniors are bankrupt, others are in production already and exceeding market caps in billions of dollars.





"The Old Lithium Big Three" are not there anymore, Chinese players have stormed the market by abordage. In "The New Lithium Top Five" FMC is pushed by Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi on the 5th place. By the way, in 2010 we had all trading houses and major conglomerates from Japan, few majors from South Korea and only literally a couple of companies from China participating in that conference. Today China is the Centre of The Lithium Universe.




But back to SQM Lithium Oversupply Scare 2.0, what is all that excitement about? Everybody will decide for themselves before Mr Market will pick up the winners and losers. The short version of the SQM and CORFO deal is reported by Reuters.

"Under the new contract, SQM would be able to produce up to 216,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate a year through 2025 in the Salar de Atacama, the source of half the company’s revenue, if it makes certain investments and obtains the relevant permits." Reuters

One of the first good analyses is published here. And Lachlan  Shaw's view from UBS is being presented above. To put these things in perspective: UBS is expecting 2,898% jump in lithium demand in 100% EV world! Roskill has tripled their base case scenario for lithium demand to soar to over 1,000,000 T of Lithium LCE to be produced annually in 2026.





Another important number is that just over 200,000 T of Lithium LCE was produced in 2017. If anything, this event should just bring some comfort to those who are still worried that there will be not enough lithium to go 100% Electric or that lithium hydroxide price will go to $100,000 per T and this price jump and the shortage will kill all idea of the mass market for Electric Cars.





Last summer I have brought my "totally outrages" personal forecast that we will have to produce 36 million T of Lithium LCE by 2040 in order just to meet IEA target of 600 million electric cars on the roads. I will give you another one - 100 million T of Lithium LCE have to be produced by 2050 in case if Elon Musk and Warren Buffett are both right and all cars will be electric ... long before it.





And we are not even talking here about Energy Storage, personal communication, drones and hungry Robots coming after all that. So what have "wiped billions of dollars from lithium companies valuations last week"? "CORFO permission for SQM" to produce 216,000 T of Lithium LCE in 2025? This bull market has not even started if the tree can be shaken by this drop in the bucket. Strong hands were busy picking up everything they can in the solid names. And solid names means not just the word lithium in companies' names.





Now let's start the serious conversation about The Security of Lithium Supply. It looks like the first mantra is learnt by now: The Price Of Lithium Is The Second Thought After You Have Got Some Secure Supply. Now let's start thinking about the real challenge: The Price For Lithium And Its Amount Somewhere Are Not Important If You Can't Get It. I will leave this stimulating process for all of you who is really interested. Scene one will be with China diverting supply of Lithium Chemicals for Batteries to their own producers. Scene two will be with Australia, Chile, Argentina, Canada and others prohibiting the export of any Battery Grade Lithium Chemicals other than in Lithium Batteries. And if you are still thinking that we are not in DRC with "AKM rule of law", just watch some TV this afternoon ... Orange is the new Black.





As you already know, we are in a sugar business for Coca-Cola with our International Lithium Corp. Now it is time to think about the next step after Vertically Integrated Lithium Business will be built. My LinkedIn space is getting more and more crowded with my new friends from China, but I am still waiting for that call from Elon Musk. Maybe it is not too late to discuss a few great locations for Tesla Gigafactories in Argentina, Ireland and Canada.





Back Into The Future - Lithium Will Power Us For The Next 50 Years And Then Robots.






LEGAL DISCLAIMER

Please read legal disclaimer. There is no investment advice on this blog. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before any investment decisions. DYOR.


Saturday 27 January 2018

China's State Grid Is Getting Ready For 100 Million Electric Cars By 2030 In The Lithium Race - Can We Reach 200 Million EVs Globally By That Time?




We have a very interesting report from China. I have to rely on a very rough translation, but the news is mindboggling for some and confirmation of the mega trend for us here. According to this article, Que Shi Feng Deputy General Manager of China's State Grid Electric Vehicle Services Co. Ltd. has announced on January 26th, 2018 in Beijing that China's fleet of electric cars will reach 100 million by 2030.





This forecast is going very nicely on top of UBS estimate of over 20 million electric cars by 2025. It is important to note, that we are talking here about all EVs: electric cars, trucks and buses. China is leading the world's Lithium Race and selling more electric cars now than any other country. The share of EVs in the total auto sales has reached 2.7% in China in 2017 with the total of over 777,000 units sold.





Will the rest of the world put its act together finally and at least match China by 2030 with another 100 million of EVs? Tesla's success is pointing in that direction. Tesla Model 3 is attracting crowds all over the US now and cancer hazard polluting "Dirty DIEsel" coordinated campaign against electric cars and lithium industry will be just a blip on the charts in a few weeks time.







Netflix has produced another brilliant documentary about DIEselGate and "Clean DIEsel": it is highly recommended to watch in order to understand better why all cars will be electric much faster than a lot of people are anticipating it.





Now with potentially 200 million electric cars on the roads by 2030, we can start to draw some charts leading us towards IEA's goal of 600 million electric cars by 2040. The Economist is giving us some numbers explaining what it means if all new cars will be electric by 2040. We will have 1.8 billion electric cars by that time. And you should remember that Elon Musk and Warren Buffett both are thinking that all new cars will be electric long before that. 






Now let's translate SQM Lithium Scare 2.0 into the reality of Energy rEVolution which is taking the world by storm of coming electric cars and after Tesla's Earthquake for the auto industry, the Tsunami of Energy Storage will demand even more lithium battery capacity than electrification of our transportation. You know my numbers: we will have to produce 100 million T of Lithium LCE by 2050, just to reach IEA's goal of 600 million EVs we have to produce 36 million T of Lithium LCE. Now based on China's State Grid plan and my assumption that the rest of the world will at least match China, we will have 200 million EVs on the road by 2030. We have just crossed a milestone of 3 million electric cars last year. We will have to produce 12 million T of Lithium LCE by 2030. 

SQM Lithium Scare 2.0 with a potential of 216,000 T of LCE Lithium production by 2025 is presented below for your careful considerations.





SQM Lithium OverSupply Scare 2.0 - Now Let's Start The Serious Conversation About The Security Of Lithium Supply For Tesla Energy rEVolution.





LEGAL DISCLAIMER

Please read legal disclaimer. There is no investment advice on this blog. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before any investment decisions. DYOR.

SQM Lithium Oversupply Scare 2.0: SQM 2010: "We Can Supply Lithium For 1000 years". SQM 2018: "Maybe We Can Produce 216k T Of Lithium LCE In 2025"






My dear overestimated by social media overextended family of friends and followers, I do hope that the following warning will come as a surprise only to those who are recovering from pot-related investing. After all, to follow Warren Buffett's investment advice you have to "kick the tires" and try all the products yourself ... As we already know, all normal people are spending 10 times more time on research how to pick up the best next flat screen 4k HD TV than on a due diligence on "a sure stock" which will make all dreams come true. (I have made it up - 10 times, the actual number is ... much higher.) 


There is only one sure thing which was recently discovered by mathematicians from CIA which will make you filthy rich very fast - Bitcoin, all other brave investment ideas must be taken with suspicion and proper due diligence. In short, do not buy everything, please, I am talking about on this blog and read my disclaimers as usual.




Only the history will tell us how Mr Market is going to treat the last week's events in the "Opaque Lithium Kingdom". Was it the best entry point of the decade just before the real exponential take off in the growth of Electric Cars entering mass-market territory or a sobering warning, that everything without blockchain in the name can go faster down than up? History teaches us that bull markets are taking stairs going up and bear markets prefer elevators going down. I do not know the future, I only can try to remember it. There is no investment advice on this blog and you can only read Chronicles of Energy rEVolution here.

SQM Lithium Oversupply Scare 2.0 is nothing new to those who were born after 2000. I still vividly remember the 2nd Lithium Supply And Markets conference held in Las Vegas in 2010. "The Lithium Big Three" one after another was putting buckets of ice brine on all excited crowd in the room. "We can supply lithium for the next 1000 years" - it was a very clear message. I am still thinking that somebody with a good for $250 million chequebooks could buy all lithium wannabee juniors in the room on the spot. Needless to say, how much brine has passed from those times, sweet memories - some of those juniors are bankrupt, others are in production already and exceeding market caps in billions of dollars.





"The Old Lithium Big Three" are not there anymore, Chinese players have stormed the market by abordage. In "The New Lithium Top Five" FMC is pushed by Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi on the 5th place. By the way, in 2010 we had all trading houses and major conglomerates from Japan, few majors from South Korea and only literally a couple of companies from China participating in that conference. Today China is the Centre of The Lithium Universe.




But back to SQM Lithium Oversupply Scare 2.0, what is all that excitement about? Everybody will decide for themselves before Mr Market will pick up the winners and losers. The short version of the SQM and CORFO deal is reported by Reuters.

"Under the new contract, SQM would be able to produce up to 216,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate a year through 2025 in the Salar de Atacama, the source of half the company’s revenue, if it makes certain investments and obtains the relevant permits." Reuters

One of the first good analyses is published here. And Lachlan  Shaw's view from UBS is being presented above. To put these things in perspective: UBS is expecting 2,898% jump in lithium demand in 100% EV world! Roskill has tripled their base case scenario for lithium demand to soar to over 1,000,000 T of Lithium LCE to be produced annually in 2026.





Another important number is that just over 200,000 T of Lithium LCE was produced in 2017. If anything, this event should just bring some comfort to those who are still worried that there will be not enough lithium to go 100% Electric or that lithium hydroxide price will go to $100,000 per T and this price jump and the shortage will kill all idea of the mass market for Electric Cars.





Last summer I have brought my "totally outrages" personal forecast that we will have to produce 36 million T of Lithium LCE by 2040 in order just to meet IEA target of 600 million electric cars on the roads. I will give you another one - 100 million T of Lithium LCE have to be produced by 2050 in case if Elon Musk and Warren Buffett are both right and all cars will be electric ... long before it.





And we are not even talking here about Energy Storage, personal communication, drones and hungry Robots coming after all that. So what have "wiped billions of dollars from lithium companies valuations last week"? "CORFO permission for SQM" to produce 216,000 T of Lithium LCE in 2025? This bull market has not even started if the tree can be shaken by this drop in the bucket. Strong hands were busy picking up everything they can in the solid names. And solid names means not just the word lithium in companies' names.





Now let's start the serious conversation about The Security of Lithium Supply. It looks like the first mantra is learnt by now: The Price Of Lithium Is The Second Thought After You Have Got Some Secure Supply. Now let's start thinking about the real challenge: The Price For Lithium And Its Amount Somewhere Are Not Important If You Can't Get It. I will leave this stimulating process for all of you who is really interested. Scene one will be with China diverting supply of Lithium Chemicals for Batteries to their own producers. Scene two will be with Australia, Chile, Argentina, Canada and others prohibiting the export of any Battery Grade Lithium Chemicals other than in Lithium Batteries. And if you are still thinking that we are not in DRC with "AKM rule of law", just watch some TV this afternoon ... Orange is the new Black.





As you already know, we are in a sugar business for Coca-Cola with our International Lithium Corp. Now it is time to think about the next step after Vertically Integrated Lithium Business will be built. My LinkedIn space is getting more and more crowded with my new friends from China, but I am still waiting for that call from Elon Musk. Maybe it is not too late to discuss a few great locations for Tesla Gigafactories in Argentina, Ireland and Canada.





Back Into The Future - Lithium Will Power Us For The Next 50 Years And Then Robots.






LEGAL DISCLAIMER

Please read legal disclaimer. There is no investment advice on this blog. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before any investment decisions. DYOR.



Friday 26 January 2018

Green Energy Metals Royalty Co.: TNR Gold, Executive Chairman And Directors Are Investing In International Lithium.




Now it is time to put more money on top of those slides ... 


     Thank you, The ILC Team



"We have successfully activated International Lithium's operations with our JV partners on three continents all around the globe."  
                                     - commented Kirill Klip, Executive Chairman of ILC.




LEGAL DISCLAIMER

Please read legal disclaimer. There is no investment advice on this blog. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before any investment decisions. DYOR.



SQM Lithium OverSupply Scare 2.0 - Now Let's Start The Serious Conversation About The Security Of Lithium Supply For Tesla Energy rEVolution.




LEGAL DISCLAIMER

Please read legal disclaimer. There is no investment advice on this blog. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before any investment decisions. DYOR.

SQM Lithium Oversupply Scare 2.0: SQM 2010: "We Can Supply Lithium For 1000 years". SQM 2018: "Maybe We Can Produce 216k T Of Lithium LCE In 2025"





International Lithium Reports Drilling Underway At Mavis Lithium Project, Ontario, Canada.





"We have successfully activated International Lithium's operations with our JV partners on three continents all around the globe." - commented Kirill Klip, Executive Chairman of ILC.




“We are very pleased to activate our further exploration program at Mavis Lake with Pioneer Resources, in Ontario, Canada,” commented Kirill Klip, Executive Chairman of ILC. “The previous drill program has demonstrated our ability to successfully target lithium pegmatites, especially at the newly expanded Fairservice target area.”





Ganfeng Lithium Comes To Europe: International Lithium Reports $1 Million Budget For The Avalonia Lithium JV, Ireland.





“We are very pleased to activate our further exploration program in Europe at the Avalonia JV in Ireland, with Ganfeng Lithium,” commented Kirill Klip, Executive Chairman of ILC. “The previous drill program has demonstrated our ability to successfully target lithium pegmatites.  In addition, our enhanced understanding of the mineral zonation will assist us in targeting not only the Aclare and Moylisha prospects but the entire belt.”







International Lithium And Ganfeng Lithium Approve $17M Budget For Mariana JV, Argentina.






“We welcome very positive developments at the Mariana JV with our partner Ganfeng Lithium,” commented Kirill Klip, Executive Chairman of ILC. “This comprehensive budget for 2018 is expected to bring the Mariana JV to important valuation milestones for the Company; preliminary economic assessment and pre-feasibility studies. We are looking forward to the confirmation that membrane technology provided by Ganfeng Lithium will allow our joint venture operation to produce lithium hydroxide in Argentina.”





International Lithium Reaches Settlement Agreement With Ganfeng Lithium On Mariana JV, Argentina.





I would like to thank all our ILC Team who have been working tirelessly in order to protect our Company and our assets for all stakeholders at International Lithium. We have now confirmed with Ganfeng Lithium our rights to 27% plus stake in Mariana Lithium JV in Argentina (including our 10% back in right) - Kirill Klip, Executive Chairman of ILC.



“We are finishing our transition year at International Lithium on a very positive note. Our new ILC team has settled all outstanding issues with our Mariana JV partner. MLC and ILC have agreed that they will act in good faith and in the best interests of the Mariana JV. Now we can focus our efforts on Mariana JV development and maximize its value for our shareholders,” commented Kirill Klip, Executive Chairman of ILC.

LEGAL DISCLAIMER

Please read legal disclaimer. There is no investment advice on this blog. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before any investment decisions. DYOR.








International Lithium:

International Lithium Closes First Tranche of $1,000,000 Private Placement

Vancouver, B.C. January 25, 2018: International Lithium Corp. (the “Company” or “ILC”) (TSX VENTURE: ILC) announces that it has closed the first tranche of the previously announced non-brokered private placement (see Company news release December 29, 2017) of up to 5,000,000 units (the “Units”) at $0.20 per Unit to raise proceeds of up to $1,000,000. On closing of the first tranche of $450,000, the Company issued 2,250,000 Units, each Unit comprising one share and one-half of a share purchase warrant exercisable at $0.30 per share until 24 months from closing.
Three non-arms’ length parties participated in the private placement for total subscriptions of $300,000: significant shareholder of the Company, TNR Gold Corp. (“TNR”), Executive Chairman, Kirill Klip, and Deputy Chairman, John Wisbey.
The proceeds of the private placement will be used for general working capital purposes.  All private placement securities will be restricted from trading for a period of four months plus one day from the date of closing.
The issuance of private placement securities to non-arms’ length parties constitutes related-party transactions under Multilateral Instrument 61-101 – Protection of Minority Security Holders in Special Transactions (“MI 61-101”). Because the Company’s shares trade only on the TSX Venture Exchange, the issuance of securities is exempt from the formal valuation requirements of Section 5.4 of MI 61-101 pursuant to Subsection 5.5(b) of MI 61-101 and exempt from the minority approval requirements of Section 5.6 of MI 61-101 pursuant to Section 5.7(b). The post-closing ownership in ILC by TNR, before conversion of warrants and debentures, is 8,692,390 shares, equivalent to approximately 9.19% of the outstanding common shares of the Company. Should the convertible debenture and warrants held by TNR be exercised, its holdings would be 14,042,390 shares, equivalent to approximately 14.1% of the issued common shares. The Company did not file a material change report 21 days prior to the closing of the private placement as the details of the participation of insiders of the Company had not been confirmed at that time.



International Lithium Corp. has a significant portfolio of projects, strong management, robust financial support, and a strategic partner and keystone investor, Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co. Ltd., (“Ganfeng Lithium”) a leading China-based lithium product manufacturer.
The Company’s primary focus is the strategic stake in the Mariana lithium-potash brine project located within the renowned South American “Lithium Belt” that is the host to the vast majority of global lithium resources, reserves and production. The Mariana project strategically encompasses an entire mineral rich evaporite basin, totaling 160 square kilometres that ranks as one of the more prospective salars or ‘salt lakes’ in the region. Current ownership of the project is through a joint venture company, Litio Minera Argentina S. A., a private company registered in Argentina, ownership of which will be revised to 82.754% by Ganfeng Lithium and 17.246% by ILC in early 2018 in order to reflect each party’s current JV interest. In addition, ILC has an option to acquire 10% in the Mariana project through a back-in right.
Complementing the Company’s lithium brine project are three rare metals pegmatite properties in Canada known as the Mavis, Raleigh, and Forgan projects, and the Avalonia project in Ireland, which encompasses an extensive 50km-long pegmatite belt.
The ownership of the Avalonia project is currently 55% GFL and 45% ILC. GFL have an option to earn an additional 24% by either incurring CDN$10 million expenditures on exploration activities or delivering a positive feasibility study on the project, at which time the ownership will be 79% GFL and 21% ILC.
The Mavis and Raleigh projects are under option to strategic partner Pioneer Resources Limited (ASX: PIO) pursuant to which Pioneer can acquire up to a 51% interest in the projects.
The Mavis, Raleigh and Forgan projects together form the basis of the Company’s Upper Canada Lithium Pool designated to focus on acquiring numerous prospects with previously reported high concentrations of lithium in close proximity to existing infrastructure.
With the increasing demand for high tech rechargeable batteries used in vehicle propulsion technologies and portable electronics, lithium is paramount to tomorrow’s “green-tech”, sustainable economy. By positioning itself with solid strategic partners and acquiring high quality assets for the Energy rEVolution supply chain, ILC aims to be the partner of choice for investors in green-tech and to continue to build value for its shareholders.
On behalf of the Board of Directors, 
Kirill Klip
Executive Chairman 
For further information concerning this news release please contact +1 604-700-8912
Neither TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Information
Except for statements of historical fact, this news release contains certain “forward-looking information” within the meaning of applicable securities law. Forward-looking information or forward-looking statements in this news release may include: the timing and anticipated results of drilling on the Mavis Lake Project, the expectation of feasibility studies, lithium recoveries, modeling of capital and operating costs, results of studies utilizing membrane technology at the Mariana Project, budgeted expenditures and planned exploration work on the Avalonia JV, and continued agreement between the Company and Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co. Ltd. regarding the Company’s percentage interest in the Mariana project. Such forward-looking information is based on a number of assumptions and subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to those discussed in the sections entitled “Risks” and “Forward-Looking Statements” in the interim and annual Management’s Discussion and Analysis which are available at www.sedar.com. While management believes that the assumptions made are reasonable, there can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate. Should one or more of the risks, uncertainties or other factors materialize, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those described in forward-looking information. Forward-looking information herein, and all subsequent written and oral forward-looking information are based on expectations, estimates and opinions of management on the dates they are made that, while considered reasonable by the Company as of the time of such statements, are subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies. These estimates and assumptions may prove to be incorrect and are expressly qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement. Except as required by law, the Company assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information should circumstances or management’s estimates or opinions change.
This news release does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to sell any of the securities in the United States. The securities referred to herein have not been and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended or any state securities laws and may not be offered or sold within the United States or to U.S. Persons unless registered under the U.S. Securities Act and applicable state securities laws or an exemption from such registration is available.

LEGAL DISCLAIMER

Please read legal disclaimer. There is no investment advice on this blog. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before any investment decisions. DYOR.