Tuesday 31 October 2017

Energy rEVolution And Stranded Assets: PetroChina, The First $1 Trillion Company Has Lost $800 Billion In Market Value.



I have this strange feeling, that everybody is talking about electric cars now, but nobody really believes it. Lithium supply chain is ready for maximum 10% - 15% of electric cars in the new auto sales, but only China is really serious about it with its state-level New Energy Plan. Chinese companies are executing this plan with military discipline and taking one check-point after another in the new geopolitical landscape moving into the Post Carbon Economy.





Ganfeng Lithium, the JV partner of International Lithium, has seen its market cap more than tripled this year alone, following the truly dramatic rise in sales. Meanwhile, In the West companies like Tesla are competing for lithium supply with the state-level New Energy Plan in China and still relying on lithium cells supply from Panasonic and Samsung.





A lot of investment advices will turn out to be very costly again. Analysts are still finding "oversupply" of lithium and Chairman of Volkswagen "still believes in DIEsel" and shareholders are not getting very angry yet. But they will. The Switch is for real now and Electrification already claims its first victims. It is time to check your portfolios and move to the right side of the history. The ICE Age is over and disruption of $12 Trillion Transportation and Energy Industries means literally billions of dollars in stranded assets






"The stock has been pummeled by some of China’s biggest economic policy shifts of the past decade, including the government’s move away from a commodity-intensive development model and its attempts to clamp down on speculative manias of the sort that turned PetroChina into the world’s first trillion-dollar company in 2007.
Throw in oil’s 44 percent drop over the last 10 years and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ambitious plans to promote electric vehicles, and it’s easy to see why analysts are still bearish. It doesn’t help that PetroChina shares trade at 36 times estimated 12-month earnings, a 53 percent premium versus global peers."






Lithium Race And Energy rEVolution: Reds Are Going Green - Electric Cars Are A Hit With Chinese Consumers.




Wall Street Journal made a very good report on the electric cars rEVolution which is happening today in China. The video report is stressing that all this success is the result of the industrial policy by the government in China. We have The New Energy Plan for the transition to Post Carbon Economy in action in China on a state level. With announcements from GM and Ford embracing electric cars, we have some hope in the West now not to be left in the poisonous DIEsel and Gas ICE Cars dust as well. 


As you know, I have been preaching for years that security of lithium supply will be the most important factor determining the competitive advantage among different producers of critical raw materials for the Energy rEVolution. This Lithium Race will have the very far-reaching geopolitical implications. Now it looks like that Tesla is realizing that there is no secure supply of lithium for its massive expansion of operations from the underneath of Gigafactory floor in Nevada. Even if Panasonic is producing cathode for lithium cells which are made at Tesla Gigafactory in Nevada the supply chain is going all over the globe and back to China.






The real test to the market and supply chains for Energy rEVolution will come with the coming tide of Electric Cars and the following tsunami of Energy Storage. Bloomberg has recently reported that there will be more than 120 models of electric cars by 2020 and you should not be surprised as we have discussed here before that there are more than 70 models of electric cars on sale in China already. The next few years will determine who will have the keys to the new Energy rEVolution and control the supply chains. Hungry Dragons are flying high already and mostly in China, the question remains who and how will feed them without fear of being burnt in the process. 






Lithium Race: The Switch Is On - China Sets New Deadline For Electric Car Quota From 2019.




We have finally actual steps taken by China in its transition into the Post Carbon Economy and leaving literally The ICE Age in the poisonous dust behind. China is The Centre of The Lithium Universe and now they are ready to start geopolitical shift which will affect everything. BYD is talking about China going all electric from 2030, but today we have the first major step in that direction with an introduction of a quota for electric cars from 2019. In short two years time, all automakers in China with over 30,000 cars in annual sales will have to produce at least 10% electric cars. It can be translated in over 2.8 million new electric cars in China being sold in 2019! Last year China has seen the fastest growth pace in three years with total auto sales climbing to 28.03 million cars. From 2020 automakers will have to produce 12% of electric cars.

Now we have a better understanding why Ganfeng Lithium: JV partner of International Lithium - was going vertical last few months. This kind of news is travelling very fast in the state corridors of power in China. This geopolitical move will have very wide political and economic implications as we have discussed it here for a long time. China is very well positioned to take the lead now and the ICE Age Of Oil is officially over.



We are reaching the tipping point this year: convergence of technology, new players who bring competition and prices down; and anti-pollution movement by the most important countries for the automakers. DIEselGate was the last drop and auto lobby cannot just swipe it under the rug anymore, consumers are not buying "Clean DIEsel".





Needless to say that lithium supply chains are not even close to the coming Tsunami of electric cars after Tesla Model S Earthquake. Countries like China and India are very serious to clean up their skies from deadly pollution and now we have lithium technology to make it possible: electric cars will take the world over much faster than a lot of people think.

Electrification of China and India will drive the next phase of the worldwide growth in EV fleet. India has announced that all new cars on sale will be electric by 2030 and they are taking it seriously making the first tender for 10,000 EVs to be supplied for the government ministries and agencies now. Transfer of the best technology for Lithium Batteries and Electric Cars will be next. China is already The Centre of The Lithium Universe and exercises its state-level New Energy Plan step by step with the military discipline, starting with securing a Lithium Supply Chain.

LEGAL DISCLAIMER

Please read legal disclaimer. There is no investment advice on this blog. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before any investment decisions. DYOR.




All latest information is available in Company's filings on SEDAR www.sedar.com




Saturday 28 October 2017

Lithium Race To Mass Market For Electric Cars: First In-Depth Look At Tesla Model 3 - The Best Affordable Electric Car.



Tesla Model 3 Club guys continue their brilliant work on promoting the first best affordable electric car: Tesla Model 3. Now you can appreciate the most important electric car in the 21st century in 4k with full details. We hear a lot about production problems at Tesla these days, but do not make any mistake - the history is already made. Tesla has brought the earthquake to the auto industry, now all automakers have to follow the lead and the real Tsunami of Electric Cars is coming.





Regarding the problems, expect more to come, but they will all be gone in time. Ramping production is never easy, but Tesla is ahead of everybody else in EV game. My real concern is that autonomous driving can become the bad spell on incredible magic made by Elon Musk. I wish him all the luck but really would like to see that he is taking his own success seriously.





Elon Musk is jump-starting the real mass market for electric cars now. Security of lithium supply will be so much more important than autonomous driving in the next few years. Tesla cannot just rely on Panasonic and Samsung to deliver the cells for Tesla batteries. Tesla supply chain for lithium goes all over the globe and back to China.






Autonomous driving is great and will be happening, but not before technology and, the most important, our society are both ready for it. Any problems here, which will be unavoidable, will be used against Tesla and can, potentially, hold it back. If China starts the real control of Lithium Supply Chain allocating resources first to its own EV and Lithium Battery makers, then Tesla and all automakers in the West will be facing the real problem. Mass production of electric cars will be happening in China. I do hope that this message is getting through now.







Chasing Tesla: Who Controls The Supply Chain For The Energy rEVolution - 20 Lithium Megafactories Are Coming.



Benchmark Mineral Intelligence has launched another blockbuster event covering the Lithium rEVolution - Cathodes 2017. Simon Moores and his team are the best in connecting the rapid growth of Electric Cars and Energy Storage industries with in-depth analysis of supply chains which are making this Energy rEVolution happening. Tesla has brought the earthquake to the auto industry, Elon Musk is "thinking hard about new Gigafactories number 3, 4, 5 and 6"; but there are already another 19 are in the making.

This month Simon has delivered his message to the US Senate - access to the critical commodities will define the new geopolitical power set for the 21st century. Billions of dollars in investments in the whole battery supply chain are needed urgently just to keep access to the raw materials. Private companies in the West like Tesla are competing with The New Energy Plan in China.







While the Old Empire was fighting wars protecting the Oil blood flowing in the world economy, state-level planning in China has been building the totally new landscape for the economic growth in the Post Carbon Economy. One by one all critical bottlenecks in the new supply chains were taken under control. The ICE Age is over and new players are taking over. This geopolitical tectonic shift after Tesla earthquake is happening very fast, the Tsunami of Electric Cars is coming and lithium is the magic metal at the very heart of this energy rEVolution.






Lithium Race And Energy rEVolution: Reds Are Going Green - Electric Cars Are A Hit With Chinese Consumers.




Wall Street Journal made a very good report on the electric cars rEVolution which is happening today in China. The video report is stressing that all this success is the result of the industrial policy by the government in China. We have The New Energy Plan for the transition to Post Carbon Economy in action in China on a state level. With announcements from GM and Ford embracing electric cars, we have some hope in the West now not to be left in the poisonous DIEsel and Gas ICE Cars dust as well. 


As you know, I have been preaching for years that security of lithium supply will be the most important factor determining the competitive advantage among different producers of critical raw materials for the Energy rEVolution. This Lithium Race will have the very far-reaching geopolitical implications. Now it looks like that Tesla is realizing that there is no secure supply of lithium for its massive expansion of operations from the underneath of Gigafactory floor in Nevada. Even if Panasonic is producing cathode for lithium cells which are made at Tesla Gigafactory in Nevada the supply chain is going all over the globe and back to China.





The real test to the market and supply chains for Energy rEVolution will come with the coming tide of Electric Cars and the following tsunami of Energy Storage. Bloomberg has recently reported that there will be more than 120 models of electric cars by 2020 and you should not be surprised as we have discussed here before that there are more than 70 models of electric cars on sale in China already. The next few years will determine who will have the keys to the new Energy rEVolution and control the supply chains. Hungry Dragons are flying high already and mostly in China, the question remains who and how will feed them without fear of being burnt in the process. 






Lithium Race: The Switch Is On - China Sets New Deadline For Electric Car Quota From 2019.




We have finally actual steps taken by China in its transition into the Post Carbon Economy and leaving literally The ICE Age in the poisonous dust behind. China is The Centre of The Lithium Universe and now they are ready to start geopolitical shift which will affect everything. BYD is talking about China going all electric from 2030, but today we have the first major step in that direction with an introduction of a quota for electric cars from 2019. In short two years time, all automakers in China with over 30,000 cars in annual sales will have to produce at least 10% electric cars. It can be translated in over 2.8 million new electric cars in China being sold in 2019! Last year China has seen the fastest growth pace in three years with total auto sales climbing to 28.03 million cars. From 2020 automakers will have to produce 12% of electric cars.

Now we have a better understanding why Ganfeng Lithium: JV partner of International Lithium - was going vertical last few months. This kind of news is travelling very fast in the state corridors of power in China. This geopolitical move will have very wide political and economic implications as we have discussed it here for a long time. China is very well positioned to take the lead now and the ICE Age Of Oil is officially over.



We are reaching the tipping point this year: convergence of technology, new players who bring competition and prices down; and anti-pollution movement by the most important countries for the automakers. DIEselGate was the last drop and auto lobby cannot just swipe it under the rug anymore, consumers are not buying "Clean DIEsel".





Needless to say that lithium supply chains are not even close to the coming Tsunami of electric cars after Tesla Model S Earthquake. Countries like China and India are very serious to clean up their skies from deadly pollution and now we have lithium technology to make it possible: electric cars will take the world over much faster than a lot of people think.

Electrification of China and India will drive the next phase of the worldwide growth in EV fleet. India has announced that all new cars on sale will be electric by 2030 and they are taking it seriously making the first tender for 10,000 EVs to be supplied for the government ministries and agencies now. Transfer of the best technology for Lithium Batteries and Electric Cars will be next. China is already The Centre of The Lithium Universe and exercises its state-level New Energy Plan step by step with the military discipline, starting with securing a Lithium Supply Chain.

LEGAL DISCLAIMER

Please read legal disclaimer. There is no investment advice on this blog. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before any investment decisions. DYOR.




All latest information is available in Company's filings on SEDAR www.sedar.com





Wednesday 25 October 2017

UBS Joins Lithium Race And Energy rEVolution: Incremental Commodity Demand For Lithium Will Surge 2,898% In A 100% EV World.




UBS is translating to its wealthy clients the data related to Electrification and disruption of Transportation and Energy Industries. The massive impact of Electric Cars on commodities will be followed by even more demand from Energy Storage applications for Solar and Wind. We are not even talking here about Drones and hungry Robots which are coming in the next 50 years. Analyzing only EV demand for Lithium, UBS is putting the mindblowing number of increase in demand by 2,898%! Cheap lithium batteries change everything, but our supply chains are still ready for only 5% - 10% of Electric Cars. We are talking here about all cars being electric and that it will happen much faster than a lot of people think.







Lithium is the magic metal at the very heart of this Energy rEVolution. Our starting point for electric cars is just over 1% of total auto sales in the world against only 200,000 tonnes of LCE produced in 2016. International Lithium JVs with Ganfeng Lithium provide an entry point in the vertically integrated lithium business. The dramatic increase in demand for lithium will require accelerated production from all known reserves of lithium and new resources will need to be found and put into production, this being crucial to the Energy rEVolution.

LEGAL DISCLAIMER

Please read legal disclaimer. There is no investment advice on this blog. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before any investment decisions. DYOR.

All latest information is available in Company's filings on SEDAR www.sedar.com



Back Into The Future - Lithium Will Power Us For The Next 50 Years And Then Robots.




Lithium Race Chasing Tesla: Morgan Stanley Predicts That Over A Billion Electric Cars Will Be On The Road By 2050.




Morgan Stanley joins top financial institutions with its own very bold prediction for over a billion electric cars on the road by 2050. You will not be surprised to hear from me that, actually, this is quite a conservative estimate and all new cars can be electric by 2040. IMF has issued a report "Riding the Energy Transition: Oil Beyond 2040" - "Just as motor vehicles displaced horses a century ago, electric cars could replace motor vehicles in the next 10 to 25 years"

Please note that in IMF's view for the electric cars my forecast of 36 million tonnes of LCE (Lithium Carbonate) to be produced by 2040 is very conservative and must be tripled in order to accommodate this transition to a fully electric fleet of new cars. According to The Economist, in the case of all new cars being electric by 2040, this fleet will count 1.8 Billion electric cars. We are talking here about over 100 million tonnes of LCE being produced by 2040 in order to make it happen. 


Tuesday 24 October 2017

Energy Metals: International Lithium And TNR Gold. Argentina Election: Macri Wins Crucial Mid-term Vote.




Finally, the great people of Argentina can get properly back to business. Removed uncertainty will provide a further boost to valuations of all companies involved in Argentina. Argentina can become the real Power House of the Energy rEVolution now. Tesla is better to hurry and build its Gigafactory in Argentina soon when it can still secure lithium supply directly from the production in Argentina.






Tesla Officials Visit Argentina’s Governor Of Salta For Solar And Storage Projects And Sourcing Lithium.





ElectTrek reports that "salt on the salad'": this is how Elon Musk has described lithium before - must be very important for Tesla's digestive system after all. I am writing here extensively about the coming control of the Lithium supply by Chinese companies who are very aggressively buying all the best lithium projects worldwide. It is very difficult to pretend anymore that any lithium will be coming from any signed by Tesla agreements with some junior miners in the nearest future. Lithium cathode is still produced by Panasonic for Tesla Gigafactory. Read more.




TNR Gold Royalty Holding Update After News by McEwen Mining On The Los Azules Copper Project, Argentina.








McEwen Mining has released a very impressive new PEA on giant Los Azules Copper project located in San Juan, Argentina. Please note all disclaimers and that all this information is from public sources released by McEwen Mining. TNR Gold holds 0.36% NSR royalty on the entire Los Azules project. Rob McEwen has done a great job and Los Azules Copper now is even larger than before:

New Resources in all categories reported by McEwen Mining:

1. Copper is up from 19B lb to 29.5B lb - plus 55%
2. Gold is up from 3.42B Moz to 5.5B Moz - plus 61%
3. Silver is up from 108.7 Moz to 191.1 Moz - plus 76%

The quality of resource has improved as well, according to McEwen Mining:

Copper before was 28% Indicated to Inferred

Copper now is 53% Indicated to Inferred.

$2.2 Billion After-Tax NPV@8% and IRR of 20.1%


3.6 Year Payback at $3.00/lb. Copper and 36 Year Mine Life
415 Million lbs. Average Annual Copper Production For The First 10 Years
$1.11/lb. Copper Average Cash Production Cost (C1) For First 10 Years


 Please Note that TNR Gold Qualified Person - as it is defined by NI 43-101, was NOT able to Verify and Confirm Any Provided Information by The Third Parties in the Articles, News Releases or on the Links embedded in this article; you must NOT rely in any sense on any of this information in order to make any Resource or Value Calculation, or attribute any particular Value or Price Target to any Discussed Securities.



TNR, through its lead generator business model, has been successful in generating high quality exploration projects in the Americas and Europe. With the Company’s expertise, resources and industry network, it identified the potential of the Los Azules copper project in Argentina and now holds a 0.36% NSR Royalty on the prospect.
At its core, TNR provides significant exposure to gold and copper through its holdings in Alaska (the Shotgun gold porphyry project) and Argentina, and is committed to continued generation of in-demand projects, while diversifying its markets and building shareholder value.
TNR is a major shareholder of International Lithium Corp. (TSXV:ILC) (“ILC”), a green energy metals company that was created through the spinout of TNR’s energy metals portfolio in 2011.  ILC holds interests in lithium projects in Argentina, Ireland and Canada. TNR continues to hold approximately 15% of the outstanding shares of ILC.
TNR retains a 1.8% NSR Royalty on ILC’s Mariana lithium property in Argentina. ILC maintains a right to repurchase 1.0% of the NSR on the Mariana property. The Company would receive $900,000 on exercise of the repurchase right. The project is being advanced in a joint venture between ILC and Ganfeng Lithium International Co. Ltd., a leading lithium product manufacturer seeking to secure its raw materials supply.  Read more.


International Lithium Receives Proof Of Concept Study For Lithium Recovery Using Membrane Separation.




"We consider this report very encouraging news for the advancement of our Mariana Lithium JV Project," commented Kirill Klip, Executive Chairman of ILC.


LEGAL DISCLAIMER

Please read legal disclaimer. There is no investment advice on this blog. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before any investment decisions. DYOR.





All latest information is available in Company's filings on SEDAR www.sedar.com


BBC:

Argentina election: Macri wins crucial mid-term vote


Argentina's centre-right governing coalition has won a sweeping victory in mid-term congressional elections.
The result will strengthen President Mauricio Macri's position as he seeks to complete his pro-market reforms.
He told supporters that they had shown it was possible to change the history of Argentina.
Former left-wing President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner secured a seat in the Senate, giving her immunity from corruption charges.
The vote was seen as a referendum on Mr Macri, who has worked to implement economic reforms he says are crucial to restore the country's economy.
His Cambiemos (Let's Change) movement won in 13 of Argentina's 23 provinces, including the five biggest population areas, official results showed. Despite the gains, he fell short of an overall majority in congress.
"We realised that many things can change, we realised that we could, we were encouraged by change, we overcame fear and resignation and reality accompanied us and is accompanying us," said Mr Macri, who is expected to run for re-election in 2019.
More than 33 million Argentines were eligible to take part in the vote, which saw a third of seats in the Senate contested, along with half of those in the lower house of congress.

Argentina's former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner gives a speech near Buenos AiresImage copyrightAFP
Image captionThe victory gives Ms Fernández immunity from corruption charges.

Ms Fernández, who governed the country from 2007 to 2015, came in a distant second in the race in the province of Buenos Aires, the country's most populous.
Despite not coming first, she secured enough votes to make it into the Senate. 
She thanked voters saying her party Citizen's Unity would remain a firm opposition to Mr Macri's economic agenda.
The ex-president, who faces corruption charges, still enjoys support among millions of low-income Argentines who benefited from her generous social spending. But critics say her populist policies damaged the economy.
She denies any wrongdoing saying the accusations are politically motivated.