Wednesday 25 October 2017

UBS Joins Lithium Race And Energy rEVolution: Incremental Commodity Demand For Lithium Will Surge 2,898% In A 100% EV World.

UBS is translating to its wealthy clients the data related to Electrification and disruption of Transportation and Energy Industries. The massive impact of Electric Cars on commodities will be followed by even more demand from Energy Storage applications for Solar and Wind. We are not even talking here about Drones and hungry Robots which are coming in the next 50 years. Analyzing only EV demand for Lithium, UBS is putting the mindblowing number of increase in demand by 2,898%! Cheap lithium batteries change everything, but our supply chains are still ready for only 5% - 10% of Electric Cars. We are talking here about all cars being electric and that it will happen much faster than a lot of people think.

Lithium is the magic metal at the very heart of this Energy rEVolution. Our starting point for electric cars is just over 1% of total auto sales in the world against only 200,000 tonnes of LCE produced in 2016. International Lithium JVs with Ganfeng Lithium provide an entry point in the vertically integrated lithium business. The dramatic increase in demand for lithium will require accelerated production from all known reserves of lithium and new resources will need to be found and put into production, this being crucial to the Energy rEVolution.


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Back Into The Future - Lithium Will Power Us For The Next 50 Years And Then Robots.

Lithium Race Chasing Tesla: Morgan Stanley Predicts That Over A Billion Electric Cars Will Be On The Road By 2050.

Morgan Stanley joins top financial institutions with its own very bold prediction for over a billion electric cars on the road by 2050. You will not be surprised to hear from me that, actually, this is quite a conservative estimate and all new cars can be electric by 2040. IMF has issued a report "Riding the Energy Transition: Oil Beyond 2040" - "Just as motor vehicles displaced horses a century ago, electric cars could replace motor vehicles in the next 10 to 25 years"

Please note that in IMF's view for the electric cars my forecast of 36 million tonnes of LCE (Lithium Carbonate) to be produced by 2040 is very conservative and must be tripled in order to accommodate this transition to a fully electric fleet of new cars. According to The Economist, in the case of all new cars being electric by 2040, this fleet will count 1.8 Billion electric cars. We are talking here about over 100 million tonnes of LCE being produced by 2040 in order to make it happen. 

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