We have reached an exceptionally significant milestone on our rEVolution journey: BYD sales eclipse Tesla. Will cheaper electric vehicles supercharge the lithium market again? This video dives deep into details on how BYD started and how it achieved its global market position today.
The main secret of success is cost. BYD produces "insanely cheap" electric cars. BYD launched the cheapest Seagull electric car with a starting price under $10,000. The strong domestic market in China and government support helped launch BYD into its orbit, now with advanced technology and lower prices they are aiming for global markets.
Another immensely important development is that even with much cheaper EVs being sold BYD's quarterly revenue eclipses Tesla also. The rising gap in sales of EVs between BYD and Tesla has generated more revenue than the price difference between cheaper BYD models and Tesla electric cars. We are talking here about the rising global volume of production and sales for EVs.
Tesla Energy rEvolution has achieved another momentous milestone. China's year-to-date NEV production surpassed the 10 million electric vehicles mark on November 14, 2024.
Electric cars are taking over our streets one by one. China leads the Energy transition where sales of the legacy auto brands are collapsing and NEV sales are back on their parabolic curve.
BYD has managed not only to return on its parabolic curve for NEV monthly sales growth but significantly accelerated this trend in September - October this year.
The annual sales and revenue can solidify the lead of BYD over Tesla contributing very significantly to the growth of global EV sales aiming for another record this year.
Following the confirmation of the continued exponential growth for EV sales, the Lithium market shows signs of life. Lithium prices are slowly recovering following the cut in production and growing demand.
"Chinese lithium carbonate spot prices have rallied around 8% since late October and are now at a three-month high, while futures on the Guangzhou exchange have jumped 13% so far this week." (Bloomberg)
Will this recovery in the Lithium market signify the change of the recent bearish trend? Can cheaper EVs like the ones produced by BYD supercharge the Lithium market again? Let's check the latest presentations from Albemarle, the world's largest Lithium producer.
First of all, we can clearly see in the latest data that Lithium contributes to reduced auto lifecycle emissions. EV lifecycle emissions are significantly less than ICE car's emissions. And Lithium production represents less than 4% of EV GHG production emissions.
Global EV demand growth is +23% year-to-date, led by China. North American EV sales represent only 10% of global EV sales with a growth of +13% YTD. China remains over 60% of the global EV market with a growth of +34% YTD and continued strong demand. Europe's share of EV sales is 20% with a slight slowdown of =1% YTD.
According to Albemarle, long-term secular growth is intact: Lithium market demand is expected to increase 2.5X from 2024 to 20230 - from 1.3M T LCE to 3.3M T LCE per year. Projected Lithium demand is healthy CAGR of 15-20%, while recent reductions to Lithium investments and expansions may create mid-term supply risk.
The next chart demonstrates the most important driver for the supercharging Lithium market again. Albemarle states that current Lithium market prices are well below re-investment economics and unsustainable. A substantial part of the cost curve is operating below breakeven. Higher Lithium prices are required over the next decade to support over 100 new projects needed to meet anticipated demand.
In conclusion, the answer to our question is positive. Lower Lithium prices are the best cure for the low Lithium prices. To meet the projected demand we need much higher Lithium prices, otherwise, lack of investments and expansions will lead to deficits. Supply and price shocks are imminent. The cheaper EVs will supercharge the Lithium market again and China holds the key to this success with companies like BYD leading the seismic shift in the marketplace.
Meanwhile, in China, Ganfeng Lithium continues its advance from the bottom established in August and back-tested in September.
Energy storage will be driving the next chapter of Lithium demand and humanoid robots will be coming into the picture with every headline about the groundbreaking technological progress.
The latest generation of Optimus GEN III uses a 2.3 kWh, 52-volt Lithium battery with an energy density of 300 Wh/kg. I believe that Solid-State Lithium batteries will be used in future generations of humanoid Robots, these batteries can provide a much higher energy density of 400 Wh/kg now.
“Ganfeng's second-generation hybrid solid-state lithium batteries use lithium metal as the anode and can reach an energy density of 400 Wh/kg, the company said." (CnEVPost)
"For all TNR Gold shareholders, it will be very interesting to note here that Lithium Chloride is the preferred Lithium chemical composition to convert into Lithium metal. Now we can put all recent developments at the Mariana Lithium Project into the perspective of this new battery technology."
Ganfeng Lithium finished summer in style decisively announcing to the international markets that its share price is coming back to life. Industry insiders were not surprised by Mr Market's attention following the successful development of the giant Lithium projects in Argentina.
We had another set of positive news coming to all TNR Gold shareholders from the 13th International Seminar on Lithium in South America, organized in Jujuy by Panorama Minero. President of Ganfeng's subsidiary Litio Minera Argentina S.A., Jason Luo has confirmed that "the production phase will begin at the end of 2024".
Last year we repaid our investment loan in full, and our Company has no debt. We believe that the recent market prices of our shares do not properly reflect the underlying value of the shares. Our transformation from the project generation junior mining company into the cash flow generating royalty company will bring the necessary catalyst for the market valuation of our assets.
We are building The Green Energy Metals Royalty and Gold Company. TNR Gold is plugged into Tesla Energy rEVolution with our Royalty Holdings on the Mariana Lithium Project with Ganfeng Lithium, Los Azules Copper, Gold and Silver Project with McEwen Mining and Batidero I and II Properties of Josemaria Copper-Gold Project with Lundin mining.
On the links below you can find more information about TNR Gold's Royalty portfolio, potential valuations of TNR Gold's NSR Royalties and how the Mariana Lithium Project is moving into the production phase in Argentina.
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