We are talking a lot about Tesla these days and groundbreaking achievements of lithium-based technology for electric cars - now they can drive themselves. I do understand Elon Musk's push for self-driving cars as a much safer option on the road than the majority of drivers, but the ability to produce millions of electric cars is even more important. The self-driving technology has a far-reaching legal and moral issues which our society will have to address in order to fully embrace it. A lot of vested interests will try to kill the whole idea of self-driving cars hitting on the electric ones. The latest report from Fitch on the "Death Spiral" for the Oil industry due to the fast improvements in lithium batteries for electric cars will open the new lines of attacks on "dirty electric cars."
I do hope that Elon Musk can really do everything and deliver Tesla Model 3 next year. But we are not alone, tectonic shift in the geopolitical situation is now driving "The Switch". China is fully charged with its New Energy Plan leaving in the dust firing the last cylinders of the corrupted lobbying institutions in the West. InsideEVs reports from the Center of Lithium Universe and the largest market for electric cars. BYD backed by Warren Buffett has delivered again for the 4th month in a row more than 10,000 EVs sold. The company is on track to sell more than 100,000 EVs in one year! It will be the first one in the world to do so and, for the reference, Tesla will, hopefully, have 80,000 - 90,000 in sales this year. It took GM 7 year to sell 100,000 Chevy Volts from 2009! We are getting to the exponential part of the S-curve for the adoption of EVs now.
Electric rEVolution: Joe Lowry - New Lithium Supply And Demand Forecast.
Copyright Global Lithium LLC, used with permission.
"Joe Lowry provides us with his conservative outlook for Lithium Supply and Demand up to 2020. He is the must follow for all seriously interested in lithium market. Always do your very own DD, but at least you have the best data to work with. Now we have a news to put his view into perspective: Germany calls Europe to ban all ICE cars from 2030! It means that ramp up in the building production facilities for EVs and Lithium Batteries must be started now. Finally, we are talking seriously about The Switch to renewable Energy and Electric Cars by 2030! Lithium Technology is here and Lithium is a magic metal at the very heart of this Energy rEVolution. Read more."
Lithium Market Small But Complex. Canadian Junior And Chinese Partner Taking Long View.
Lithium Race: China Wants 3 Million Electric Cars On Road By 2025.
"I guess that it is the case that whatever China wants they will get. In the case of electric cars with all the best central planning can get they will be there much faster. I am expecting that China will sell 500,000 only in this year. And we will see 1,000,000 electric cars sold worldwide in 2016. They have sold already 207,000 by August in 2016! Bloomberg is even more optimistic on the chat above. I will throw my own number - China will have at least 5 million electric cars by 2025. Why - just stay with me for a while. These twenty minutes can change your next 20 years of life. If Tony Seba is correct: all new cars sold by 2025 will be electric.
There is a state-level military plan in action in China to leapfrog ICE-age technology directly into the post carbon world with its New Energy Plan. It is a part of strategic planning on the state-level within Five Year Plans. New Energy is based on Solar, Wind and Electric Cars. Military style planning includes the whole commodity chain starting with Lithium Raw Materials - Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqiare investing all over the globe to secure lithium supply. Lithium Chemicals including for lithium batteries production - China is number 1 in the world already including Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi making it into "The New Lithium Top 5." Lithium Batteries - Now Warren Buffett's BYD is chasing Panasonic and new coming Megafactories in China from CATL, BYD, Foxconn, Boston Power, A123, LG Chem and Panasonic will make China the center of Lithium Universe for many years ahead. Electric Cars - there are 25 companies which are making 51 models of EVs already in China and 200 companies are developing 4,000 new EV models.
This is what I call a serious exercise of a structural shift in the economy, driving internal consumption by building a 21st-century manufacturing base in Solar, Wind and Electric Cars and growing its middle class who will produce and consume all those beautiful cars. Now they will be able to breathe a fresh air as well. Welcome to Henry Ford idea with the state level implementation of new lithium technology and 1.4 billion people who would like to be happy and only starting to consume a fraction of the goods compare to the West.
I am preaching for the same approach here in the West for years. My dog is listening to me every time, but even him got bored already. Nothing is perfect anywhere, but you better check it out and learn fast: while we are still fighting DieselGate after one year from its mass media discovery, Red Dragon is flying fast and high picking up the best lithium projects, technology and brains to feed its new appetite for growth. Links below will provide you with my ideas where this growth will lead us and what will be the diet for this hungry creature. For those who is a long time here - we are coming back to our main investment thesis. It is very difficult to handle dragons: they are naughty, moody and can fry you just by trying to kiss. It is a better business to run a grocery store and feed them well. This New Energy domination plan will require a lot of Lithium and Copper and this is where my research is leading me to as well now. Read more."
InsideEVs:
For the fourth month in a row, BYD sold more than 10,000 plug-in electric cars.
BYD Qin
The 10,114 deliveries however translates to a relatively slow (for BYD anyway) pace of growth – 76% year-over-year. That’s great result, but it’s the company’s slowest in more than two years.
We are not sure whether the demand has currently peaked at 10,000 cars a month in China where BYD makes them available, or just that BYD is experiencing some production bottlenecks at this volume level.
Total plug-in sales after nine months now stand at 73,785 (which is up 106% year-over-year).
Given the strong end of year sales trends for China, the 100,000 mark will surely fall this year and well, BYD will be first to sell 100,000 plug-ins in single year – and for a single country. No small feat. Next year we expect Tesla will also manage to sell 100,000 all-electric cars in the single year.
BYD August sales breakdown:
- Qin – 3,125
- Tang – 2,120
- e5 – 2,094
- Qin EV300 – 1,534
- e6 – 1,241
BYD plug-in electric car sales in China – September 2016
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