Friday, 7 October 2016

Tipping Point For rEVolution: Range Is All The Rage In Paris, As Electric Cars Steal The Show After DieselGate.

The New York Times.

  The New York Times reports about the tectonic shift after DieselGate in Europe and Paris Motor Show being overtaken by the flood of promises about electric cars.  The ugly truth is that ALL DIEsel cars are emitting cancer hazard pollution and majority of them many times over the limits. People will just stop buying them. Now we have some brave prototypes and even real electric cars as well. Tesla Model S is outselling Mercedes S-Class, BMW7 and Audi 8. Automakers are getting the message finally: Tesla Model 3 will put then out of business and they are praying that Apple will continue just talking to every single automaker while making iPhones N+1 instead of millions electric iCars on Tesla Model 3 powertrain.
  Even GrandPa from Daimler has dressed down to the jeans electric uniform posing next to All-Electric EQ Mercedes promising to beat Tesla in ten years.  They are all welcome to try - we need millions of electric cars and it looks like we can be driving a lot of them made in China much sooner than "they will beat Tesla".  
  By the way, Europe is already selling more electric cars than the US this year. This tide is coming and this year we can celebrate 1,000,000 electric cars being sold in 2016 - it will get attention. But the most important is that the real electric cars are coming priced below $40k with the range over 200 miles: GM Bolt, Opel Ampera-e, Renault Zoe and Tesla Model 3.  China is the wild card still below the radar screens: New Energy Plan with military style attention to the detail and execution is taking over lithium supply chain. Megafactories for batteries are rising and the best lithium technology is being tested by Formula E. Everything is ready for The Switch with record Solar and Wind installations, Energy Storage  being rolled out and electric cars going into mass production.  

Lithium And Energy rEVolution: EVs Sales Reach All-Time High In US For September, Almost 17,000 Sold.


  InsideEVs reports about another record sales of electric cars in the US. In September 16,974 EVs were sold which is 67% increase y/y from 2015. Now InsideEVs tracks 29 model of electric cars being sold in the US. It compares with 25 companies in China already selling 51 models of electric cars and 200 companies developing 4,000 new EVs models. Worldwide sales of EVs are now at 441,179 up to the end of August. We still have a chance to reach my goal of 1,000,000 electric cars sold in 2016. Now China will have to deliver more than 500,000 EVs sold and it is possible. Tesla with its own record number of 111% jump in sales in the Q3 this year will deliver the boost to the sales of EVs in the US and GM Bolt is the wild card. They are going to deliver first to Lyft now - I do hope that the production is on track and normal sales and deliveries will start in November. 
  As you can see among the leaders in sales of EVS in the US the best electric cars are selling the best.  Tesla Model S - 21,715 total sales in 2016; Chevy Volt - 16, 326; Tesla Model X - 12,740. This year Ford overtakes Nissan with its Enegi  and 11,650 in sales. Nissan Leaf is number 5 this year in sales with 9,238. 
  I would note that both Teslas are the most expensive electric cars and once we have the better price offer with the range over 200 miles from GM Bolt and Tesla Model 3 these numbers will become even more impressive. I expect Chevy Bolt to beat Chevy Volt in the first full year of sales in 2017. The trend is obvious - lithium technology and cheaper battery batteries allow us now much better fully electric cars (BEV) and hybrid technology with two very costly powertrains is only a transition technology. Customers are ready to buy the best electric cars, bring them on Apple! I am waiting for the latest full data from China for the August.
  Some investors are still searching for the lithium in news releases from Nevada. I would note that marketing companies will probably make more money than investors on this trend. Joe Lowry from Global Lithium will be a very good guide for all interested in this "hot commodity." Panasonic is actually supplying the lithium cells to Tesla and they are buying lithium chemicals from China mostly now.  There is no lithium under Tesla Gigafactory floor and Chinese giants are going for the best lithium projects all over the world where lithium is actually located in economically viable for extraction deposits.   Read more."

Lithium Race: China Wants 3 Million Electric Cars On Road By 2025.

  "I guess that it is the case that whatever China wants they will get. In the case of electric cars with all the best central planning can get they will be there much faster. I am expecting that China will sell 500,000 only in this year. And we will see 1,000,000 electric cars sold worldwide in 2016. They have sold already 207,000 by August in 2016! Bloomberg is even more optimistic on the chat above. I will throw my own number - China will have at least 5 million electric cars by 2025. Why - just stay with me for a while. These twenty minutes can change your next 20 years of life. If Tony Seba is correct: all new cars sold by 2025 will be electric.
  There is a state-level military plan in action in China to leapfrog ICE-age technology directly into the post carbon world with its New Energy Plan. It is a part of strategic planning on the state-level within Five Year Plans. New Energy is based on Solar, Wind and Electric Cars. Military style planning includes the whole commodity chain starting with Lithium Raw Materials - Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi are investing all over the globe to secure lithium supply. Lithium Chemicals including for lithium batteries production - China is number 1 in the world already including Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi making it into "The New Lithium Top 5." Lithium Batteries - Now Warren Buffett's BYD is chasing Panasonic and new coming Megafactories in China from CATL, BYD, Foxconn, Boston Power, A123, LG Chem and  Panasonic will make China the center of Lithium Universe for many years ahead. Electric Cars - there are 25 companies which are making 51 models of EVs already in China and 200 companies are developing 4,000 new EV models.  
  This is what I call a serious exercise of a structural shift in the economy, driving internal consumption by building a 21st-century manufacturing base in Solar, Wind and Electric Cars and growing its middle class who will produce and consume all those beautiful cars. Now they will be able to breathe a fresh air as well. Welcome to Henry Ford idea with the state level implementation of new lithium technology and 1.4 billion people who would like to be happy and only starting to consume a fraction of the goods compare to the West.   
  I am preaching for the same approach here in the West for years. My dog is listening to me every time, but even him got bored already. Nothing is perfect anywhere, but you better check it out and learn fast: while we are still fighting DieselGate after one year from its mass media discovery, Red Dragon is flying fast and high picking up the best lithium projects, technology and brains to feed its new appetite for growth. Links below will provide you with my ideas where this growth will lead us  and what will be the diet for this hungry creature. For those who is a long time here - we are coming back to our main investment thesis. It is very difficult to handle dragons: they are naughty, moody and can fry you just by trying to kiss. It is a better business to run a grocery store and feed them well. This New Energy domination plan will require a lot of Lithium and Copper and this is where my research is leading me to as well now. Read more."

The New York Times:

The Paris Motor Show runs through Oct. 16. CreditMichel Euler/Associated Press 
PARIS — For perhaps the first time at a major international auto salon, the stars of the Paris Motor Show are electric cars.
The 2016 show, open to the public through Oct. 16, also has the usual sampling of futuristic designs and prototypes. And of course there are some conventional new models soon to hit dealer showrooms.
But this show may end up being best remembered as a tipping point for an electric car revolution poised to challenge the automobile industry’s internal-combustion status quo — although some of the excitement is still speculative, of course.
Volkswagen, trying to move beyond the diesel-emissions cheating scandal that has tarnished its brand, is displaying an all-electric concept car it calls the I.D.
VW already sells the all-electric e-Golf, but its limited range between charges is a big drawback. The e-Golf is considered a “city electric” for short commutes, not a long-distance road warrior.
But at next month’s Los Angeles Auto Show, Volkswagen plans to introduce a new e-Golf, with a range the company says exceeds 124 miles, measured using the Environmental Protection Agency’s test protocols.
Karl-Thomas Neumann, chief of Opel, with the brand’s new Ampera-e electric car. G.M., which owns Opel, says the Ampera-e has a range of over 300 miles on a single charge. CreditChristophe Ena/Associated Press 
The new e-Golf, to be sold in more locations than the current model, will serve as a “bridge vehicle,” the company says, to the new all-electric based on the I.D., whose debut is planned for 2020. Volkswagen says it will have an electric self-driving car by 2025, which is why the I.D. on display here features a steering wheel that retracts into the dashboard when the car is in autonomous mode.
Mercedes-Benz used the Paris show to announce a new subbrand of electric cars, Generation EQ (a play on I.Q.). The vehicles are scheduled to roll out in stages over the next three to seven years. The inaugural model, on display here, is a sport utility vehicle.
Almost every other manufacturer in attendance is offering at least one new model with full electric operation or a hybrid combination of gas and electric.
Exhibit A came from the Opel division of General Motors, which unveiled the production-ready Ampera-e — the European version of its all-electric Chevrolet Bolt, which is supposed to go on sale late this year in North America.
The five-passenger subcompact Ampera-e promised the trifecta of electric car must-haves: considerable utility for a car its size, a mass-market price and an all-electric range of more than 500 kilometers, or 310 miles. (The Chevrolet version has a stated range of 238 miles, based on E.P.A. standards, which are tougher than their European counterparts.)
Six years ago, when the Nissan Leaf, the industry’s first mass-produced electric vehicle, went on sale, the company said its range was less than 100 miles. That proved
Four years ago, Tesla pulled ahead as the new standard-bearer, with electric cars that could go up to 265 miles on a charge. The company said here that its new Model S P100D was rated at 315 miles. But its $135,000 price puts the car well out of the reach of mainstream buyers.
The electric autonomous-driving Renault Trezor concept car on display in Paris. Renault said that future production models based on the Trezor, which has a red cockpit, would appear only after 2020.CreditBenoit Tessier/Reuters 
Tesla’s long-promised, lower-price Model 3, which is to sell for $35,000 to $42,000 and is heavily subscribed with advance orders, is still only in prototype form and will not be available until late next year, at the earliest. Tesla did not display a production-ready Model 3 here, to the vocal disappointment of some attendees.
Extending an electric car’s range has been G.M.’s goal since the demise of its ill-fated EV1, which it produced from 1996 to 1999. The EV1 had a range of barely 100 miles.
But G.M. claims to have solved the problem. As evidence, the company announced here that its engineers had driven the Ampera-e 417 kilometers, or 260 miles, from London to the Paris show via the Channel Tunnel.
“When we arrived, we still had a further 80 kilometers of range left,” said Pam Fletcher, the project’s executive chief engineer. “That is substantially more than we just announced for this car two weeks ago.”
While she did not detail the exact methodology, route or road conditions of that drive, “any careful driver, on a national road, could have driven this car 500 kilometers,” Ms. Fletcher said. “We are presenting a real production car, not something that is two to three years away.”
The Ampera-e’s price was not announced here. But its nearly identical cousin in America, the Chevrolet Bolt, has a base price of $37,495. And a range of possible tax credits and incentives offered in the United States could lower the final cost by more than $7,000.
“I’m impressed,” Chris Paine, writer and director of the 2006 documentary film “Who Killed the Electric Car?” wrote in an email about the Ampera-e. “The real question is when it will hit showrooms for us to drive, or have Lyft pick us up in one.”
Dieter Zetsche, chairman of Daimler, Mercedes-Benz’s parent company, presented the brand’s new Generation EQ electric vehicles, which are scheduled to appear in stages over the next three to seven years. CreditIan Langsdon/European Pressphoto Agency 
The Ampera-e will go on sale in Europe next spring, the company said.
Another Paris debutant was a next-generation Renault Zoe EV, with a projected range of 400 kilometers, or 248 miles.
But the Zoe, the first generation of which made its debut in 2012, has been offered for about $27,000 without a battery, less expensive than the Bolt. Buyers then lease a battery pack from the manufacturer for about $100 a month. Renault said the new Zoe would probably have a battery purchase option.
The sexiest concept model at the show is probably the Renault Trezorautonomous-driving electric car. This aircraftlike flight of design fancy is likely never to see production — especially its cornea-scorching red plexiglas cockpit. Renault said future production models based on the Trezor would appear only “beyond 2020.”
Mercedes-Benz built the largest stage here and rigged it for a huge light show with pulsating sound to introduce its Generation EQ vehicles. “We’re now flipping the switch,” said Dieter Zetsche, chairman of Daimler, Mercedes-Benz’s parent company. “We’re ready for the launch of an electric product offensive that will cover all vehicle segments, from the compact to the luxury class.”
The attention devoted to electric cars at the Paris show stole the spotlight from diesel-powered cars, once a staple of the European automobile market and past stars of this show.
Diesel’s inherently dirtier emissions are not welcome in Paris these days. To address the city’s notoriously bad air quality, the municipal government has since July 1 prohibited cars that were registered before 1997 from operating on the streets on weekdays from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. By 2020, environmental activists predict, all diesels might be banned in Paris.
And the mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, has proposed expanding car-free areas. One just approved will transform a major thoroughfare along the Seine into a pedestrian zone.
But this city, where the electric-car-sharing service Autolib’ has been operating for nearly five years, would presumably be hospitable to more e-cars — as the electric revolution at the Paris Motor Show may have foreshadowed."

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