Thursday 29 October 2015

Joe Lowry: Citi's Recent Lithium Report - Read It With Caution.

  Joe Lowry from Global Lithium is giving his take on latest CITI research on Lithium Industry. Lithium is finally making its way on the Wall Street and into Institutional Portfolios. Those who makes it right now will be able to enjoy The Electric Future later. Joe Lowry is the must follow for his sober insider's outlook into the realities of our Lithium Industry.

Joe Lowry: The 2015 Lithium Awards.

  Joe Lowry has produced another brilliant illustration on the state of the Lithium market just before the major technological shift in a few Trillion dollar industries which is happening all at once now: Communication, Transportation and Energy. You can find more about the real news from the Lithium Industry on his Twitter feed and LinkedIn page and on the links below. The whole world is going Electric and Lithium Is The Magic Metal at the very heart of this rEVolution.
  Ganfeng Lithium is strategic partner of International Lithium, holds 17.5% in our company and finances now two J/V projects with ILC in Ireland and Argentina. Stay tuned for our new developments.

Joe Lowry: China - The New Center of the Lithium Universe?


  "I am back from all the latest disruptions. Somebody on Twitter wrongly got my slogan: Join Disruption Or Be Disrupted and they started Censoring me on DieselGate and Volkswagen scandals. Now it is on the Capitol Hill and I loved one representative asking Volkswagen U.S. CEO during his testimony: "What are you going to read in jail". Lets courts do their job. Prosecutors have already raided Volkswagen in Germany today. For us the one thing is very important now: all cost accounted, including medical bills and damage to the planet, Electric Cars are already better and cheaper than the ones with Internal Combustion Engines (ICE). 
  Now I can get back to business and would like to share with you Joe Lowry's article on Lithium and my thoughts on China's military plan how to build Electric Cars as Strategic Industry for Post Carbon Economy and Next Industrial rEVolution. Read more."

International Lithium and Ganfeng: Argentina's Mine Industry Doubles Down on Lithium

International Lithium Corp. - A Green-Energy Metals Company.

  "I have written extensively about International Lithium and our strategic partner Ganfeng Lithium. Our J/Vs in Argentina and Ireland are financed by this giant from China and we have very important access to the technology. Basically we are building the secure supply chain for Ganfeng Lithium using their expertise in raw materials needed for production of battery grade lithium from the very beginning. Our brine bulk sample from Mariana is being tested at Ganfeng state-of-the-art R&D facilities in China and in Ireland we have identified 22 exploration targets. Now, according to our latest NR, we are waiting for the approval of the budgets for both projects to be rapidly advanced after very encouraging results were received from the last exploration stage this year.

   Today I would like to show you another side of International Lithium. We have the very strong technical team headed by our CEO Gary Schellenberg. Anthony Kovac - our COO and John Harrop - our VP of Exploration are among very few top level exploration managers and geologists in lithium sector. This Team depth has allowed International lithium to attract Ganfeng and strike two major J/V deals in all our industry. These days we are getting the first fruits of this very hard work. Coming volume shows that market is waking up and we are receiving at least some recognition of the value we have been building all these years. 
  I am talking a lot about the security of lithium supply and Tesla Lithium Hydroxide Supply Deal is another proof and was noticed by market overnight. Now venture capital is knocking on all doors chasing the upstream supply chain for electric cars and Energy rEVolution. 
  We have another great project at International Lithium: Mavis Lake Lithium And Tantalum Project which is located in mining friendly Canada in the area with excellent infrastructure and very encouraging initial exploration results with high grade Lithium and Tantalum. It will be our next strategic advance for the company. With J/Vs moving forward we are looking for the strong Strategic Partner to develop this project for the potential supply of this strategic commodity for the ongoing Next Industrial rEVolution. West will wake up one day to the fact that China has managed to control now not only over 90% of REE production, but 75% of Battery Grade Lithium Hydroxide as well. 
  Security of Supply means exactly this - Security. When the price is taking the second consideration and availability of critical materials is taking the central stage. My personal mission is to make this Security happen for the Western world for real as well, even if this part of the World still lives by HFT rules and Q by Q performance reflecting the coming bonuses. Our Asian friends are beating us all here with the state-level plans looking for The Next Fifty Years and building new strategic industries like Electric Cars in China.
  We have Elon Musk, we need more like him, but it is a very good start. Our strategic partner for Mavis Lake is waiting somewhere in between of latest Q performance reviews. If you know the one - you know whom to call. Now I do not have really to explain any more What Is Lithium For - Elon Musk has made the great job and every single Tesla Model S is the best moving ad of the things to come. All cars will be electric and it will be very soon. And by the way any new hard rock mine for Lithium will take 5-7 years to build Lithium brine operations will take 4-5 years at best. 
  Why International Lithium? You can check presentation above. Read more."

Ganfeng Increases Stake In Avalonia Lithium Project, Ireland And Finalizes Exploration Loan Agreement With International Lithium For Mariana Lithium Project, Argentina.

 "Mr. Kirill Klip, President, International Lithium Corp. comments, “The restructuring of our loan facilities with strategic partner Ganfeng Lithium provides ILC with financial relief and access to capital through the long term Exploration loan. In Argentina, all political candidates running in the upcoming elections are echoing the importance of mining and foreign investment to that country, something I view as very positive for our Mariana project. In Europe there is a growing concern that emissions standards are not being met with the clean diesel scandal paving the way for electric cars powered by lithium batteries. This gives our Avalonia project in Ireland strategic importance. Together with Ganfeng Lithium we continue to work towards supplying lithium as a raw material for clean power technologies in Europe and around the world.”

Joe Lowry:

Citi's Recent Lithium Report - Read it with Caution

"The investing world is hungry for information about the lithium industry. Citibank has a well recognized global brand in banking so when they publish something on lithium, people pay attention. Recently Citi released "Lithium-The Future is Electric". There is a lot of interesting research in the report and I would suggest reading it - with caution. It is hard to separate the wheat from the chaff.
The report is being quoted by many who write about lithium one day and perhaps, the Westminster Dog Show, the next. Similar to the 1990s adage "nobody ever got fired for buying IBM"; it seems many casual writers about lithium believe that if: "Citi says it, it must be correct". The problem is Citi does not know lithium and even some of their referenced sources don't know lithium very well either.
I could mention numerous issues with the Citi report but will focus on just one:
Citi's Lithium Cost Curve
First the good news, the costs for SQM and ALB are close to reality. The Orocobre cost (even with the caveat that the cost curve is by capacity not production) is so far off that Citi clearly is out of its depth writing on this subject. The other brine costs shown are much lower than reality as are the spodumene based costs. Well at least Citi is close on the two major carbonate producers but the margin of error on the other names listed is cause for alarm."
You may want to bank with Citi but you should probably consider Benchmark or Signum Box if you want to get high quality lithium reports. I have no interest (financial or otherwise) in either company; however I do recommend them to clients on a regular basis.
Despite all the issues with Citi's report, they got the theme correct - lithium's future is electric." 

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