Sunday 27 September 2015

Answer To The DieselGate: Lithium Race - One Million Electric Cars Now In The World, Did You Get One?

  We did it! There are one million electric cars in the world, did you get one? Please notice that China has come up already second after the U.S. from the very late start. It will become World Number One in EV sales by the next year. Now VolkswagenGate will add fuel to this fire, I expect more people to consider EVs after this scam.

Lithium Race: Electric Cars Sales Are Going Exponential. 

  Growth in sales of electric cars is going exponential and we are fast approaching the  mile-stone with one million EVs sold sometime in September of this year. We need more and better electric cars and, finally, they are coming. Tesla Model S is entertaining all tech crowd with its Ludicrous Mode, Tesla Model X will start breaking hearts of Range Rover squad. Apple Electric iCar will bring us all The iPod moment with electric cars taking off into the mass market stage overnight.

  New catalyst will come with GM Bolt in production next year, Tesla Model S being unveiled in March in Geneva and new Nissan Leaf with 500 km range. Noise from Audi about Electric SUV with 500 km range in 2018 and Electric Aston Martin with 200 miles range is helping the general feeling of Lithium Rush in the air. 
  Warren Buffett's BYD is making solid progress in sales and China promises to become the top workld market for EVs if not this year than next for sure. Tesla has got the best selling EV title in June and BYD has made it to the top three best selling EVs in the same month. BMW, Mercedes, Renault all are pumping up production of EVs and Europe has taken number one EV Sales spot with China growing very fast. China is the separate story and "War on Pollution" has produced numerous contestants for the government cash including Internet TV and E-Commerce giants moving into the space. 
  The results remain to be seen, but serious players are moving fast now in EV and Lithium Battery race with BYD, SAIC, Brilliance, LG Chem, Foxconn, Boston Power, A123, BAIC BJEV leading the way among many others. Lithium is the magic metal at the very heart of this rEVolution and supply is already under strain even before Tesla Gigafactory and other Megafactories are coming on-line. 

Lithium Race In "War On Pollution": Investors Swarming Lithium Battery Market In China.

  I continue to map the fast changing landscape for Lithium Battery business. Today we can start to add more Megafactories to the list. Tesla Gigafactory is being chased not only by Warren Buffet with BYD, but other well established players that we have discussed before: LG Chem, BYD, Foxconn, Boston Power and A123. Today we can start to dig out 17 new players in lithium battery space. I think that in the end we will have very similar situation to the Solar Panels - lithium batteries will become a commodity and price will drop dramatically. For my personal Holy Grail we need $100 per kWh - it will bring us my magic 20/200: $20k electric car with 200 miles range. 
  In the end we will have the overcapacity built and consolidation in the lithium battery space, but for now: the more - the better! State-level government policy to build new strategic industry: electric cars,  brings its fruits already and new stimulus money which are fighting stock market collapse are sipping in the incredibly high growth lithium space.
  The best players will be rising faster with this tide and Ganfeng Lithium is very well positioned for this growth. Ganfeng is building vertically integrated lithium  business with International Lithium as strategic partner to develop the secure supply of lithium. Ganfeng newly built facility with 6,000 t/y of Lithium Hydroxide capacity is ready to supply this rapidly growing demand for high purity battery grade lithium. China now controls 75% of Lithium Hydroxide battery grade production facilities in the world. Prices are already going up even before all these Gigafactories will be coming on-line. Joe Lowry will be your best guide into the building shortages in the lithium market and a lot of broken dreams and promises in this industry. He forecasts the dramatic 150% rise in Lithium Demand over next 10 years and Apple Electric iCar is not even accounted for!
  Ganfeng has bought a small Chinese mobile lithium battery maker last year and has secured 10% stake in revamped Boston Power, which is building its own Megafactory in China now. Check out our latest news from both J/V projects of International Lithium financed by Ganfeng in Argentina and Ireland.
  "War on Pollution" and state-level plan are driving this incredible advance in technological leap into post carbon world by China now. Leapfrog into EV space mass production is happening already. Not a lot of people realise that Warren Buffet is one of the major players now in China with his BYD investment and Elon Musk talks Tesla production in China while building Superchargers Network. It will charge the mass market with Tesla Model 3 rolling out in 2018. Apple iCar will change our landscape overnight and connection with Foxconn can be a very interesting twist to the whole story. Ganfeng Lithium already supplies LG Chem, BYD, Boston Power and Panasonic which supplies cells to Tesla Motors and investing in Tesla Gigafactory. International Lithium new aggressive stage of development will bring us closer to potential production for this well established top lithium materials producer in the world.

Joe Lowry - Lithium Supply & Demand: Origins, Growth and Investment.


  Joe Lowry has published another brilliant piece on the state of lithium industry, exploding demand and  very sober outlook for the supply side. Joe brings more than twenty years of deep inside technical knowledge in this very opaque market place and knows almost all major lithium producers by "kicking all the tires" of their field operations. Lithium race is upon us and President Obama opens the new chapter for the sustainable clean economy. Where lithium will come from?

International Lithium Corp. Reports on Continuing Work in Argentina and Ireland With Ganfeng Lithium.


Mr. Kirill Klip, President, International Lithium Corp. comments, "Our projects are advancing in tandem with rising lithium prices. The lithium supply chain is being stressed even before the commissioning of the Tesla Gigafactory and other megafactories from BYD, Foxconn, Boston Power and LG Chem. Our joint ventures with Ganfeng Lithium demonstrate that cooperation between companies with varying expertise in the raw materials supply chain can work to secure a supply of strategic commodities. In this case, lithium which is necessary for the clean energy initiatives announced by the U.S. and China. These two countries alone will provide mass markets for electric cars and home energy storage units increasing the demand for lithium batteries."


1 Million Electric Cars Now In The World

September 22nd, 2015 by  
More than one million all-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids have been sold worldwide to date, according to the most recent figures. Considering that the 500,000 threshold was just passed last July, that means that growth has really been picking up as of late — with a bit over 200,000 in sales between July–December 2014; and with around 300,000 of sales in just the last 9 months or so.
Of these estimated 1,004,000 EVs sold worldwide to date, an estimated 62% are pure EVs and 38% PHEVs. The vast majority of these sales have occurred since late 2010, when the Chevrolet Volt and the Nissan LEAF launched (click those links for some serious flashbacks). That means that the one million sales threshold was passed after around 4 years + 10 months of time.
As one can probably guess, of these million or so sales, a great majority have been from only a few models — the Nissan LEAF, the Chevrolet Volt, the Tesla Model S, the Toyota Prius PHEV, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, the Mitsubishi i-MiEV, the BYD Qin, the BMW i3, the Renault Zoe, and the Ford Fusion Energi leading the pack. As seen in the graph above, roughly 200,000 Nissan LEAFs have been sold to date, and 100,000 Volts, making those two the clear leaders — though the Tesla Model S is close behind with 75,000 units sold.
Presumably, with the launch of the Model X and the Model 3, Tesla will claim a much greater market share, but that remains to be seen. BYD also looks likely to increase its market share notably in the coming years, based on market trends and new models. Mitsubishi and Toyota have been doing fairly well as well, though one wonders what the future holds for those two companies — the US release of the Outlander PHEV should be interesting, for instance, if it ever happens.
As far as Toyota goes, while the Prius PHEV is technically a plug-in the model, it only has 11 miles of rated all-electric range (and 6 miles on the highway), so those numbers should be taken with a caveat on that point. The company’s future plans concerning EVs appear to be rather nebulous for now — though, one wonders how long the hydrogen car charade can keep going, so maybe that’ll change soon.
With regard to where these million+ sales have occurred, there are no surprises there — the US, ChinaJapan, and Northern Europe lead the pack by a substantial margin. The US accounts for a bit more than a third of the total figure (363,265 units sold); China follows with about half of that share (157,354 units sold); Japan with a fair bit less than that (121,000+); and various European countries and Canada round out the top 10.
It should probably be noted here that President Obama’s supposed goal to spur 1 million EV sales in the US by the end of 2015 will not be achieved — less than half of that figure will likely have been sold by the end of the year. But maybe he misspoke and the goal was 1 million EV sales worldwide. 😉
Sales in the US will likely pick up in the coming years, though, as cheaper models (such as the Chevy Bolt, the Model 3, etc) launch. That said, until good-quality models start being offered in the sub $20,000 range, it’s unlikely that sales will see the boom that advocates would like to see, in my opinion.
It’ll be interesting to see how units do on the used car markets in the near future, though — 6 years from now, how much will a used Chevy Bolt be selling for? Will it be cheap/functional enough that someone of lesser means might be willing to give it a try rather than going with a conventional offering?
Sales in the European and Chinese markets are continuing to grow relatively fast. I wouldn’t be surprised to see China take the top spot within only a few years.
On the subject of the European markets, it has only been a couple of countries driving the majority of the growth of recent times, and much of this has been down to policy support (most especially in the UKNorway, France, and the Netherlands).
A final note that’s probably worth making here: much of the EV sales in Germany and France to date have been of units offered by local companies — BMW and Renault, in particular. Foreign manufacturers have had a hard time gaining much of a market share in these countries, with the Tesla Model S and Nissan LEAF being exceptions.
Images via GM-Volt"

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