Wednesday, 10 February 2016

Lithium Race - Tesla: Model 3 Will Cost As Low As $22k After Incentives, Taking Orders In March.

InsideEVs: Close to the Model 3 reveal, Tesla officially re-confirms $35k pricing.

  InsideEVs reports, that rumours that Tesla Model 3 will not be unveiled in Geneva at the very beginning of March, as it was reported by Elon Musk before, are true. Now we will learn more about Tesla Model 3 "only" at the end of March. But we have more important news today: it is great to see that the pricing before the incentives is confirmed at $35k. Let's the first price wars for electric cars begin between GM Bolt and Tesla Model 3. This aggressive pricing means that in U.S. Tesla Model 3 will be sold below $30k and in some U.S. states even as low as $22k! Colorado will be that magic place to go and buy Tesla where you will get $6k of state tax credit on top of $7.5k federal tax credit. We are getting very fast in this lithium race to my magic 20/200 formula for the mass market for EVs. 

"We are entering into the new phase of The Next Industrial rEVolution, when electric cars will grow exponentially from the very low base of 0.8% of total sales in the world. Just in China alone 26 companies are now making 51 models of electric cars. China has become the largest lithium market in the world, moves to claim the largest lithium battery market next and will become the largest electric cars marker in the world this year. Lithium is the magic metal at the very heart of this Energy rEVolution."

My Outrages Lithium Price Prediction Of $15k per MT Of LCE And Joe Lowry On China Lithium Market Upheaval.

Copyright Global Lithium LLC, used with permission.

  Joe Lowry makes very interesting observations about the dynamic in our Lithium Universe. China is the largest Lithium Market in the world now. Security of Lithium Supply becomes the most important element of your business plan, when market is growing exponentially. It is all happening even before Tesla Gigafactory is coming online with other Lithium Megafactories to follow. My prediction about $15k MT LCE prices in China now suddenly does not look totally outrages any more!

"Asia is taking the very important lead in this space as well. China is not only leapfrogging directly into the Lithium Energy Space with Electric Cars and Solar, but building the advanced materials base for this new Energy rEVolution. Panasonic, Nissan, Toyota, NEC, Sony, Samsung, Huyndai, LG Chem and others are staking its own place in electric cars now. China is the largest Lithium Market in the world already, moving to claim the largest Lithium Battery Producer title and Electric Cars in China will become the largest World's EV market early in the next year.
  Listen to that podcast, read the article about LG Chem and do your own research. Numerous companies are building Lithium Batteries facilities now in China: LG Chem, BYD, Boston Power (Ganfeng Lithium has 10% stake), Foxconn, Samsung, A123 - which will exceed even Tesla Gigafactory production capacity! 17 start ups only this year are trying to capitalise in lithium batteries market on the "War on Pollution" announced by China and state-level plan to build new strategic industry - Electric Cars. Read more."

Lithium Race: Will Price War Between GM Bolt And Tesla Model 3 Bring Us Mass Market For EVs?

  "Finally, GM Bolt is out as production model at CES 2016! What is even better: GM promises to deliver now 200 miles with around $30k price tag! We are getting to my 20/200 EV mass market formula now: when $20k buys you BMW 2 type EV with 200 miles range. The first Price War in the Electric Space is officially on now! GM Bolt is priced "around" $30k and is challenging Tesla Model 3 to be unveiled at Geneva Auto show in March this year. Elon Musk will easily match performance of GM Bolt, in my personal opinion. Tesla can deserve even price premium to GM Bolt: next move from Elon Musk will be very interesting - will he go for the bold statement and the market share by matching GM Bolt at $30k price tag instead of $35k?

  Later, Gigafactory will allow Elon Musk to be more aggressive with pricing with the increased volume, but what will be Tesla's move now? GM Bolt is supplied by LG Chem with lithium batteries: it will be very interesting to know the price and whether LG Chem is going for the market share as well now by selling lithium batteries below cost. I have never heard that LG Chem is working on the next stage of Lithium Solid State Batteries, can somebody help me here, please?
 Lithium Solid State Batteries can be the largest secret around Gigafactory and Tesla Model 3 future. If Elon Musk is really working on it now and will be able to commercialise it - we can talk about $100/kWh lithium battery cost, when 50 kWh lithium battery for Tesla Model 3 will be costing only $5k and will provide at least 200 miles range! Read more."

Lithium Race To Mass Market For Electric Cars: What Do We Know About Tesla’s Secret Model 3?

"The Salt Lake Tribune gives us today a very good summary of what we already know about Tesla Model 3 and I will provide a few links to show why this Lithium Race to mass market for electric cars is picking up speed and we have reached the point of no return. Lithium is the magic metal at the very heart of this Energy rEVolution and cheap lithium batteries change everything. Read more."

"The price is right. The base model will cost $35,000, reportedly before government incentives, which in the United States range from $7,500 to more than $13,000, depending on the state."


The question of “Will the Tesla Model 3 really keep the $35,000 price-point that  CEO Elon Musk promised so many years ago?”has definitively been answered.
Tesla Says The Model 3 Is On Track For 2017 Arrival
Tesla Says The Model 3 Is On Track For 2017 Arrival (concept art via
Seeking final clarification Bloomberg (who always seems to have Tesla’s ear for some reason) reached out to Tesla for confirmation ahead of the first reveal of the Model 3 next month.
“We can confirm it’s $35,000 before incentives,” Khobi Brooklyn, a Tesla spokeswoman told Bloomberg. “We haven’t changed our minds.” 
This means of course for the unwashed masses in the United States, the Model 3 will be available from $27,500, while other state residents will do even better – such as an effective starting price of $25,000 in California.  Far below the average newcar transaction price in the US today.
The new question quite likely will now shift to  “How long will Tesla keep the Model 3 priced from $35,000?” as the company has a history of deleting and/or upgrading the base model (at a higher price).  But we will leave that for another day.
Given Tesla’s most anticipated quarterly report ever tomorrow after the market close (which we will cover live), we expect CEO Elon Musk to be peppered with questions about the March reveal during the subsequent Q&A session.
Tesla's Elon Musk (Shown Here From Hong Kong In January) Has Always Been Consistent With Model 3 Pricing
Tesla’s Elon Musk (Shown Here From Hong Kong In January) Has Always Been Consistent With Model 3 Pricing
Ms. Brooklin declined to give any more information on the car, or steal any thunder from her CEO, but did offer some guidance on the Model 3’s arrival:
“The Model 3 is on time, and everyone is going to learn more about it at the end of March.  That’s when we’ve committed to talking about it and giving a really great update, and that’s what we’re going to do.”
Bloomberg also did some math on how long we can expect those $7,500 federal rebates to last until Tesla hits the 200,000 trigger that would start the phase out, and came up with a mid-2018 figure.
As it stands today, the US EV credit phase out begins at the start of the second calendar quarter after the manufacturer has sold 200,000 eligible plug-in electric.  So potentially there could be up to 6 further months of credits regardless of the amount sold, followed by 6 months at 50%, and another 6 months at 25%.
See example below:
Current $7,500 Credit Program Phase-Out Example
Current $7,500 Credit Program Phase-Out Example

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