Saturday, 28 January 2017

China Beats The US and Europe In Lithium Race, Sales Of Electric Cars Jump 86% With 352,000 Sold In 2016.

Geely Emgrand EV.

China beats the US and Europe in lithium race with 351,861 electric cars sold in 2016! "EV Sales" reports that sales of plug-in vehicles in China are at the record 1.45% share of all auto sales leaving Europe (1.3%) and the US (0.9%) far behind. China is moving in the fast lane with 44,874 EVs sold in December. Sales of electric cars in China jumped astonishing 86% from 2015 when we saw 188,700 EVs sold. It is important to note, that here we are talking only about electric cars and electric buses and commercial trucks must be added to these very impressive numbers. The Switch is happening right now. China is the Centre of the Lithium Universe now: 46% of all worldwide electric cars sales are happening in China.

Warren Buffett's BYD has stolen the show in 2016 with 100,173 EVs sold in total and 6 models among  the 10 EVs which are the best sellers in China. To put things in perspective, BYD has sold the same amount of electric cars in China just in 2016 as GM sold its 100,000 of Chevy Volts during 7 years from 2009.

Now the competition on price is driving the explosive growth of electric cars in China. Geely Emgrand EV with 45 kWh lithium battery and over 250 km range was the best selling electric car in China with a massive 6,023 units sold in December - a new record for a single model. Top ten EV models by sales in China in 2016 were produced by BYD, BAIC, Geely, Zotye, Cherry and SAIC. There are more than 70 models of electric cars on sale in China now! The Chinese EV market is the most dynamic in the world, following the footsteps of the exponential growth of its largest auto market of the world.

Another very important observation is that lithium batteries for EVs are getting larger capacity and they provide longer range while electric cars are getting cheaper! The most popular in December in China Geely Emgrad is equipped with very respectful 45 kWh lithium battery (Tesla Model 3 and GM Bolt have 60 kWh batteries) wich provides over 250 km of range. I think that it will become the industry standard very fast for all affordable EVs to have 60 kWh lithium batteries providing over 200 miles of range and for the luxury ones like Tesla Model X 100 kWh will become the norm with over 300 miles of range.

The dramatic drop in prices for lithium batteries with mass-volume production will change the whole economic proposition for electric cars. At the magic, $100 per kWh cost of lithium battery for Tesla Model 3 battery will be only $6,000, and for Tesla Model X with 100 kWh it will be only $10,000. These prices are below the cost of engines and automatic transmissions in ICE cars! Electric Cars will become not only cheaper to own during their lifetime, but they will become cheaper to buy. This is when The Switch will be happening with millions switching to EVs. This tide is coming on the streets near you.

"I will throw a few numbers just to give you a teaser here. The rest is on this blog for those who are ready to learn. The cost of Lithium in your iPhone is $1 dollar, in Tesla's Lithium battery cost of Lithium is 2-3% in the price of the finished product. We are in a generational shift 2 to 7,000: 2 is the number of the batteries in your father's remote control, more than 7,000 is the number of lithium batteries in Tesla Model S. It takes 63 kg of LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent) to build Tesla Model S 70 kWh battery. Every 1% increase in sales of Electric Cars as part of total auto sales brings new demand for 70,000 t of LCE. Total production last year was 160,000 -180,000 t of LCE. During all our humankind history 1,000,000 EVs were sold before 2015. This year alone we can get 1,000,000 electric cars sold. Worldwide we are still close only to 1% of Electric cars in total auto sales. BYD - EV automaker from China where Warren Buffett is holding a 10% stake, will sell this year 100,000 EVs, it took GM 7 years to sell the same amount 100,000 of GM Volts. China is talking now about California style Zero Emissions Mandate: 8% of all news cars to be electric by 2018 and 12% by 2020. Let's digest it for a minute. With sales of EVs now only above 1% mark, we are talking about the factor of 8X in  ... two years time and 12X increase in the number of electric cars produced in China by 2020! Now Goldman Sachs numbers can be really conservative: they are talking about 3 times increase in Lithium Demand by 2025. I am talking about the total disruption of $12 Trillion industries: 4$ Trillion Transportation and $8 Trillion Energy and Utilities. I am talking about all cars being electric very soon. 

Now you will better appreciate the following fact that International Lithium Strategic Partner Ganfeng Lithium has more than doubled its total sales in 2015 in just 9 months of this year!  

   And The Switch ... The Switch is the coming tide when literally millions of people will be switching very fast (as fast as all those millions of EVs can be made) to the electric cars. GM Bolt will give us the first taste of what is coming. The first two electric cars priced below $40k and with a range of over 200 Miles will change everything. Tesla Model 3 will start the real flood of affordable electric cars which are just better than anything else at the same price from the ICE age. Despite all headlines about Electric Cars on my blog, 99% of all new cars are still powered by the last century technology of controlled explosions and by burning oil in different compositions while killing us all and our planet at the same time. Do you remember the 90s - The World Before The WWW and Information Revolution? Now we have 21st Century and Energy Revolution: The World Just Before The INTERNET. Read more."

Ganfeng  is the largest integrated lithium producer  in China, with a total capacity of around 30,000 tpa LCE. Ganfeng’s products include lithium metal, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate , lithium fluoride, lithium chloride, and other chemical products of lithium. In Australia, Ganfeng Lithium owns a 43.1% interest in the Mt. Marion lithium spodumene mine with Mineral Resources Ltd. (43.1%) and Neometals Ltd. (13.8%). Ganfeng  was founded in 2000 and trades on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange with a market capitalisation of around US$ 3 billion. 

“Ganfeng has a strong commitment to supply Lithium products to various industries worldwide,” stated Ganfeng’s Director, Wang Xiaoshen, “so we clearly have a vested interest in these projects and have been very hands-on in the evaluation of ILC’s properties. I feel confident that these projects fit our resource strategy.”

Building The Secure Lithium Supply For Electric rEVolution: International Lithium Corp. Announces Strategic Changes

"I would like to thank all shareholders of International Lithium for their continuous support of our company. My special thanks are going to Ganfeng Lithium Chairman Mr. Li Liangbin and Vice Chairman Mr. Wang Xiaoshen. Thank you for supporting my vision for our Company! We will be building this great business for ILC shareholders. Read more."

Lithium Race And The New Energy Plan: China Will Plow $361 Billion Into Renewable Power Generation By 2020.

"We have very serious money coming very fast into renewable energy space all over the world now. Bill Gates is making a Billion dollar fund to invest in the clean energy and China cannot really hide anymore its very ambitious quest for the world domination ... in all things Green first. And Green is the color of money this time. And I actually think that these are very positive developments: hopefully, President Trump will not help just China to become Great again and America will get its fair share of common sense. 

Let's all better compete in the Clean Energy Race than Arms Race. Asymmetric Warfare will be the name of the game now.  Solar and Electric Cars mean business these days. Whoever will succeed to bring them all up to the state level scale will enjoy the benefits of virtually free energy after the CAPEX is invested, while the other side will be sitting on Trillions of dollars in stranded assets. 

Trade War - anybody? It has never stopped really and is taking its way now with the tide of disrupting technologies from the labs with literally millions of the best-trained engineering minds and into the markets taking them by storm. FED central planners can never really even imagine what the real central planning can do: China's New Energy Plan is in action now. So one would think: who should call whom now first: Elon Musk or Donal Trump? Read more."

Lithium Race Goes Exponential: More Electric Cars Are Sold In China Than In The Rest Of The World Combined.

"Reuters reports from the grounds of The Centre of The Lithium Universe. More electric cars are sold in China than in the rest of the world combined! I will not open the very big secret telling you that these cars are not the best in the world yet and sales are driven by the government subsidies, but just imagine what will happen when really best electric cars will be sold at the prices below $30k ... then in a couple of years below $20k? A BMW 2-type car with much better performance, cheaper and with 10% of the running cost of ownership? Multiply it on the opportunity provided by the largest auto market in the world and state level fight for the survival gasping for the fresh air literally. Then just make a few calculations related to coming California Style ZEV mandates...  

We have the major catalyst in the making in China right now. The whole country is leapfrogging into the 21st century with The New Energy Plan. Implications will be very far reaching and Lithium Market is just one of the signs of things to come when bottlenecks in the supply chains are reflecting the returned appetite from the Dragon. This Lithium Race is going into the exponential part of the S-curve now. Read more."

EV Sales:

China December 2016 (Updated)

Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Image result for Geely Emgrand EV
Geely Emgrand EV

Newcomers Month

The Chinese market had 44.874 new EV's in December, far from the 60.000 expected by analysts, but still up 27% YoY, pulling the Plug-in Market Share to a record 1.45%, above the USA (0.9%) and Europe (1.3%). 

Despite the “disappointing” plateauing in December, which a bit like expecting that Usain Bolt breaks the 0-100 meters World Record every time he goes on track, looking at the big picture, the 351.861 units registered in China during 2016 represent approximately 46% of ALL plug-ins sold worldwide this year, with Chinese carmakers responsible for 43% of all EV production in 2016.

To confirm the rising trend of the Big Red Giant, in 2013 China had only 6% of the worldwide plug-in production, since then it had increased share at a 11-12% yearly pace.

In December there were a number of fresh models shining, with the BAIC EC180 being the most impressive, reaching Second Place right on its landing month.

Here are last month Top 5 Best Selling models:

Image result for Geely Emgrand EV
#1 – Geely Emgrand EV: Geely, one of the largest car makers in China, owner of Volvo and LTI, the iconic Black Cab from London, joined this year the EV Bandwagon, by selling the Emgrand EV, an electric conversion of its successful middle-of-the-road sedan, and last month it was the most successful to date, with a massive 6.023 units, a new all-time record for a single model, allowing it to win for the first time the Best Seller status. With ok looks and good-but-not-outstanding specs (127 hp, 0-100kms/h in 9.9 seconds, 253 kms range from a 45 kWh Lithium battery), Geely is betting to make a good first entry into the market, stealing sales from BYD and BAIC sedans, while the more export-oriented Lynk & Co plug-ins do not arrive.

Image result for baic ec180
#2 – BAIC EC180: After being shown in last November, the BAIC EC180 has landed in the following month with a bang, registering 4.128 units, a new record for a debut month, this city car has the advantage of offering a rather appealing Crossoverized-look, good equipment features, Ok interiors and a usable range, with 180 kms. Is this enough to sustain the record figures registered in December? No one really knows, but BAIC has great ambitions for this platform, with more models coming and input from a certain LeEco company…

Image result for chery arrizo 7 phev specs
#3 – Chery Arrizo 7 PHEV: Another newcomer willing to stir the established players, the Arrizo 7 PHEV is Chery’s new product, having arrived just in October, it is already reaching the podium, thanks to 2.922 registrations last month. Sitting at the heart of the plug-in hybrid sedan market, with a starting price of 150k Yuan (20.500 euro), a 9.3 kWh battery and 50 kms electric range, this model wants to give the BYD Qin and SAIC’s e550 a run for the money and hopefully repeat this podium position in other occasions.

Image result for byd e6 specs 
#4 – BYD e6: Below all these newcomers we have the longest running plug-in in China, zooming the streets since 2010, the BYD e6, this model experienced a record year in 2016, thanks to some new impressive range specs, shaming everyone bar Tesla, with its 400 kms range coming from a 80 kWh battery. Popular among taxi-fleets, this model ended the year with 2.528 units in December.

Image result for byd e5 specs 
#5 – BYD e5: This plain-Jane sedan is on the rise, having beaten its monthly record, with 2.420 units delivered in December, starting to become a regular in this Top 5. Unlike the more show stopping BYD Qin EV300, the e5 feels more taxi-friendly regular looking but with basically the same specs as the all-electric Qin, 305 kms range included. A BYD for cost conscious (230k Yuan / 30k Euro) customers.

Year-to-Date Ranking – 100% BYD Podium

With over 70(!) models on sale, three of them landing last month, the Chinese EV market is by far the most dynamic on Earth, with plenty of surprises and changes.

Proof of this balance is the fact the BYD Tang, China’s Best Selling Plug-in in 2016, ended the year with 31.000 units, or just 9% of the plug-in market, the lowest share of any winner in the World. Also, it hasn’t won any Monthly Best Seller trophy since July…Despite this, it was a record year for the Chinese SUV, scoring 31.405 units, slightly below the 31.898 all-time record set by its BYD Qin relative in 2015, but enough to leave the same BYD Qin in Second Place this year, some 10.000 units behind.

But the real surprise this year was the Third Place of the veteran BYD e6, thanks to a strong Q4 (7.715 units), it climbed to Third Place for the first time since 2013, with a record 20.605 units, making it three BYD’s in the podium seats, a first.

Below we find two BAIC’s, the E-Series EV and the EU260, both had disappointing performances in December and were surpassed by the old fox BYD e6, while the Geely Emgrand EV jumped to #6 in December, leaving strong credentials for 2017. Will we see it run for the leadership? 

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, the leader BYD lost 3% share, to 28%, but it was enough to win the Manufacturers title (Third in a row), to put three BYD’s in the podium, another in #9 and other in #14. Not bad, eh? 

BAIC (12%) ended in Second Place and Zotye (11%) secured the Third Spot, ahead of SAIC, Chery and Zhidou, all with 6% share.

An always popular debate is Tesla’s performance in China, so here is a small tip on its performance, there was only some 100 Model S delivered in December, because that month was the first mass delivery of the Model X, with more than 1.000 units being registered that month.

As result, Tesla ended the year with 3% share, being the Best Selling foreign manufacturer, ahead of Porsche (1%).

Finally, looking at the breakdown between BEV’s and PHEV’s, unlike other markets where plug-in hybrids are winning the upper hand, all-electric cars just keep on improving share, ending the year at 76%, up 1% regarding November 2016 and 7% more than the result achieved in 2015.

BYD Tang
BYD e6
BAIC E-Series EV
Geely Emgrand EV
Zotye Cloud EV
Chery eQ
BYD e5
SAIC Roewe e550
Zotye E200
Zhidou D1 EV
JMC E100
BYD Qin EV300 
Zhidou D2 EV
Tesla Model S  e)
Kandi K17 Cyclone
Changan Eado EV
TOTAL Market

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