Sunday, 16 September 2018

Gold And Commodities In The Debt Cycle: Ray Dalio - "US Dollar Can Easily Depreciate 30% During The Next Debt Crisis".

Is it only me? Why is it so difficult to buy assets at the bottom and so easy to chase bubbles and running away stocks in a friendly herd rushing to the slaughterhouse? Ray Dalio gives the answer: if you have to actively manage your money go against your instincts: "buy when there is a blood on the streets and sell when times are good". 

Nothing is new here - it all sounds very familiar, but the execution is making all the difference as usual. These simple investment principles have made fortunes and lack of emotional discipline has separated millions of brave investors and their money. This is a human nature to do exactly the opposite: selling at the bottom and buying at the top.

We have a lot of signals pointing to the higher prices of Gold and Commodities these days. Ray Dalio is talking about the most significant catalyst among all of them in his new book: "A Template For Understanding Big Debt Crises". "US Dollar Can Easily Depreciate 30% During The Next Debt Crisis" - this warning from the man who is managing the world largest hedge fund is coming as very sobering. And a time frame for this next debt crisis is very close - "next couple of years" according to Ray Dalio.

Only the future will tell whether he is right that "a feeling is not the indication of the future".  The book is free and everybody can have it and it is definitely worth to study the templates of 48 crises described in his study. Otherwise, it can be such a pity that we all had the warning but still could not do anything and escape the herd's destiny getting closer and closer to the slaughterhouse.

TNR Gold's Shotgun Project: Mining M&A - NovaGold’s Laser-focused Strategy Of Unlocking The Value Of Donlin Gold In Alaska After Newmont Buys Out Share Of Galore Creek.

This is why I am calling TNR Gold's Shotgun Gold project location in Alaska "Gold in Alaskan Elephant Country":

“This transaction is a win-win for all parties,” said Thomas Kaplan, NovaGold’s chairman. “For NovaGold’s shareholders, it is the continuation of a laser-focused strategy of unlocking the value of its assets and transforming the company into a pure play on Donlin gold, which we believe is the most important gold development story in the industry.”

Now Nova Gold has more capital to advance Donlin Gold and Alaska is getting back into mining business with the new wave of M&A activity in mining. The driving force for the next wave of consolidation in mining will be the lack of available exploration capital for the mining juniors due to the down cycle in the Gold market and smaller and smaller returns on the invested capital with the exploration in the green fields. 

To put it simply: it is harder and harder to find the promising projects with the initial confirmed resource, blue sky exploration potential, and stable mining jurisdiction to capitalize on the major gold discovery. I believe, that TNR Gold's Shotgun project is well placed in this part of the cycle in order to attract the major strategic partner for its development.

InvestorIntel: TNR Gold Fine Tuning Royalty Model For Green Energy Metals.

"The third major component in TNR’s portfolio is the Shotgun gold project, located close to NovaGold and Barrick Gold’s Donlin project in Alaska. Early resource numbers suggest the project holds 20.7 million tons of ore with an average gold grade of 1.06 grams a ton, with a 0.5 g/t cut-off grade. Barrick and NovaGold’s project obtained a key environmental approval from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in April, indicating the government of Donald Trump is more amenable to mining in Alaska. Once again, external factors are moving in TNR Gold’s favor. 
Klip’s next step with Shotgun is to find an exploration partner of the same caliber as McEwen. One of TNR’s board members, Greg Johnson, founded NovaGold and was instrumental in the discovery of Donlin. He is entrusted with the task of finding that partner, Klip said. Don’t bet against TNR repeating the success it has had so far in ILC and Los Azules."

Alaska is coming back in play as the best jurisdiction for the elephant style Gold deposits on the American soil. Barrick and Nova Gold are moving forward the giant Donlin Gold deposit and now the whole region play will bring the reevaluation for all players involved. 


Please read legal disclaimer. There is no investment advice on this blog. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before any investment decisions. DYOR.

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