Zachary Shahan CEO and Chief Editor of the brilliant and highly recommended media company "CleanTechnica" is putting the new all-time highs for Lithium price into the perspective of the big picture of the ongoing Tesla rEVolution and The End of the ICE Age.
"Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a leading entity tracking and analyzing lithium market information, concludes that the lithium market needs to scale up to 25 times or more of the 2021 level by 2050." CleanTechnica
Now you can better understand my slide "100M T of Lithium LCE Needed by 2050" from Lithium Will Power Us For The Next 50 Years And Then Robots: Kirill Klip GEM Royalty TNR Gold Lithium Presentation.
"Looking closer, the analysts forecast 2.9 million tonnes of LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent) a year by 2032. Consider that, in total, 2.7 tonnes of LCE were produced from 2015 through 2022 so far. In 2040, one month’s lithium needs are expected to be equal to all of the battery-grade lithium produced in 2021." CleanTechnica
The looming deficit in the supply chain for Battery Grade Lithium is pushing Lithium prices to smash new all-time highs in China again this year after a very brief consolidation.
This is the reflection of the exponentially growing demand and the very limited ability of the established producing facilities to increase the supply of Battery Grade Lithium. "Skyrocketing Lithium prices unlikely to stabilize soon", says Ganfeng Lithium Chairman: "Overall global demand for the material could reach 3 million tons by 2030".
Chart by Nicholas Winton
Talking about the production side to address this looming deficit, we discussed recently a very important confirmation for all TNR Gold shareholders from Salta, Argentina. According to the publication of Cronica del NOA about the meeting between Ganfeng Lithium and the Governor of Salta Gustavo Saenz: "The Mariana project, which began construction last June, will start producing in 2024 an estimated 20 thousand tons per year of Lithium Chloride".
Now we can discuss my quote from our News Release: "TNR Gold Monetizes Royalty Holding On Ganfeng's Mariana Lithium By Partial NSR Sale To Lithium Royalty Corp For USD$9,000,000", and better understand why we can have potentially another unique entry point opportunity into our TNR Gold GEM Royalty Story provided by the ruthless Mr Market.
The future valuation of TNR Gold NSR Royalty on Mariana Lithium will depend on the Lithium price and the amount of production by these facilities. Lithium prices in China are moving above USD$70,000 per T of LCE spot price and Ganfeng inaugurated Mariana Lithium construction last June with their USD$600 million investment plan to develop "Phase 1" facilities for 20,000 T of Lithium Chloride annual production starting in 2024.
With 0.45% NSR on Mariana Lithium left after Ganfeng would exercise their 1% NSR buyback right the potential future undiscounted pre-tax cash flow for TNR Gold generated from only this Royalty holding can represent the annual amounts which are higher than the total market cap of the Company today.
"Kirill Klip, TNR’s Chief Executive Officer commented, “We are very pleased that after many months of deliberate negotiations we have achieved this major milestone for our Company and a further validation of TNR Gold’s business model. By monetizing part of our royalty holdings, we are providing a very important benchmark for valuations of assets in our royalty portfolio and generating very significant capital, while selling to LRC only a portion of our royalty holding on the Mariana Lithium Project.
This strategic transaction with LRC allows us to significantly improve our working capital position and strengthen our balance sheet. The parties expect the transaction to close within 60 days. The Company has received an initial advance of USD$350,000 from LRC under the terms of the royalty purchase agreement.
We believe that our royalty holdings are undervalued, and their appropriate values are not reflected in the Company’s share price. This transaction clearly demonstrates it. We have generated a total amount of cash for TNR Gold that is well above the Company’s recent market capitalization. We have received significant industry interest in our assets and the Company is working on potential new strategic partnerships to provide further benchmarks for the market valuations of our royalty holdings.”
"TNR holds a 1.5% NSR Royalty on the Mariana Lithium Project in Argentina, of which 0.15% NSR Royalty is held on behalf of a shareholder. Ganfeng Lithium’s subsidiary, Litio Minera Argentina (“LMA”), has the right to repurchase 1.0% of the NSR Royalty on the Mariana Project, of which 0.9% is the Company’s NSR Royalty interest. The Company would receive CAN$900,000 and its shareholder would receive CAN$100,000 on the repurchase by LMA, resulting in TNR holding a 0.45% NSR Royalty and its shareholder holding a 0.05% NSR Royalty.
The Mariana Lithium Project is 100% owned by Ganfeng Lithium. The Mariana Lithium Project has been approved by the Argentina provincial government of Salta for an environmental impact report, and the construction of a 20,000 tons-per-annum lithium chloride plant has commenced."
Mariana Lithium Project** measured and indicated resource: 4,410,000 T of LCE and 49,700,000 T of potash with the additional inferred resource: 786,000 T of LCE and 9,260,000 T of potash.
(Updated Mariana Lithium Project measured and indicated resource: 6,854,000 T of LCE with the additional inferred resource: 1,267,000 T of LCE – Company news release, July 14, 2021)"
We are building The Green Energy Metals Royalty and Gold Company. On the links below you can find more information about TNR Gold, our assets and learn more about the Lithium market. As usual, make your own research, stay safe and prosper. Join rEVolution!
Please read my legal disclaimer. There is NO investment advice on any Kirill Klip feeds and blogs. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before any investment decisions.
Do Your Own Research.
Decarbonizing transportation rests on scaling up electric vehicle production rapidly and massively, and that rests on scaling up battery mineral mining and refining. Batteries are also necessary to a greater and greater degree for scaling up renewable energy deployments in an efficient and effective manner. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a leading entity tracking and analyzing lithium market information, concludes that the lithium market needs to scale up to 25 times or more of the 2021 level by 2050.
While much emphasis is put on the electric vehicle market and all of the lithium needed for that, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence actually puts stationary energy storage is the main driver of demand by that time — ⅔ of the 11.2 million tonnes expected to be produced each year by then.
Looking closer, the analysts forecast 2.9 million tonnes of LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent) a year by 2032. Consider that, in total, 2.7 tonnes of LCE were produced from 2015 through 2022 so far. In 2040, one month’s lithium needs are expected to be equal to all of the battery-grade lithium produced in 2021.
“The long term path for lithium is set, yet the supply chain scaling challenge has just begun,” Simon Moores, chief executive of Benchmark, explained. “What this data shows is that we are at just the beginning of a generational challenge, not one that’s going to be solved in the 2020s.”
Benchmark is aware of 40 lithium mines that have been in operation — producing lithium — in 2022. By 2050, the company sees a need for 234 more lithium mines if there’s no battery recycling underway (which, of course, is completely unrealistic but is a place to start from for such an analysis). In terms of recycling, “Benchmark forecasts that in 2040, nearly 20% of lithium chemicals will be produced from recycled batteries or process scrap.” For now and in the near future, due to the relatively low number of old electric vehicles on the road, very little recycled lithium comes from recovered EV batteries — rather, such content is coming from process scrap. It’s estimated that lithium from recycled batteries will make up more of such content starting sometime in the mid-2030s and then will account for a greater and greater portion of such supply.
Benchmark also noted that EV battery demand was responsible for 39% of overall battery demand in 2015 but is now up to 79% of demand this year. However, as stated above, Benchmark expects 67% of battery demand to be from the stationary energy storage market by 2050, and just 33% from the EV battery market. Nonetheless, with the European Union aiming for no fossil fuel vehicle sales by 2050 and China looking to have 100% “new energy vehicle” sales by 2060, the EV market needs to achieve dramatic growth in EV battery production. “It’s crucial that legacy OEMs, EV producers, and battery cell makers make the big and at times uncomfortable decisions in investing in long term generational critical minerals supply, especially for lithium,” Moores said. “If not, Automakers won’t hit their EVs, governments won’t achieve Net Zero by 2050, and market volatility will be here to stay for much longer.”
To learn more insights on the global lithium market from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, you can join its upcoming “Benchmark Week” in the middle of November."
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