McKinsey comes out with its forecast on the future of oil and adoption rate of electric cars. For a lot of people, this potential future will represent the very dramatic change. Now let's try the future Tony Seba is talking about when all cars will be electric by ... 2025! Below is another forecast from McKinsey, which they got totally wrong. Tesla Gigafactory opening on July 29th, 2016 will start the new era when we can store electricity very efficiently and cheap in the mass-produced lithium batteries.
Cheap lithium batteries change everything for EVs and Renewable Energy with Energy Storage. Now the real story will be happening in Asia with numerous Megafactories coming on-line. I envision that lithium batteries will become the commodities like solar panels and with dramatically falling prices they will ignite the real transformation and mass marker for electric cars and solar. 25 companies in China are already manufacturing 51 models of electric cars. Lithium becomes the strategic commodity underpinning this Energy rEVolution and security of its supply is the crucial element of military geopolitical planning now like oil, wich is losing its ground according to McKinsey.
Ganfeng And International Lithium In EV Race: 25 Companies Are Making 51 Models Of Electric Cars In China Already.
Lithium Race: World’s Top 10 Selling Plug-In Electric Cars And Top 10 Manufacturers – May 2016.
InsideEVs.
"We are all excited by Tesla's headlines and the coming new catalyst for the lithium market with the opening of Gigafactory later this month, but the real story of the lithium race is happening in China right now. China has become the largest auto market in the world for electric cars last year and BYD has become already the biggest manufacturer of electric cars in the world this year. Waren Buffett holds the stake in BYD and this New Energy conglomerate is taking the world with its electric buses and electric cars. This year BYD has moved into utility energy storage as well in the U.S. with EDF.
It is called The New Energy in China and is a part of the 5-year plans which are exercised with military discipline for the last few decades. Electric Cars, Solar and Wind power with lithium battery domination are all parts of the building of this strategic industry in China to rule in the 21st century.
25 companies are making 51 models of electric cars in China already and they are not all Teslas yet but are getting very fast there. The whole new strategic industry is being created from scratch and companies like Ganfeng Lithium are growing very fast from $3 million dollars in sales in 2000 to $4.5 billion in market cap now.Ganfeng Lithium is the strategic partner of International Lithium and finances our two J/V projects in Ireland and Argentina. In this EV race into the 21st-century Energy rEVolution, the security of lithium supply becomes the most important factor for the leaders to keep their dominant position in the fast-changing marketplace. Read more."
Lithium 2.0 Launch: Security Of Supply - Galaxy Resources To Buy General Mining In Lithium Takeover.
"This chart of lithium price in China is keeping awake at night very many people now in our very small industry. Quite a lot of them have totally missed the launch of Lithium 2.0 and now the security of supply is the major geopolitical issue. Tesla is still relying on Panasonic to supply lithium cells and a lot of people are relying on the "Lithium Found in Nevada" under Tesla's Gigafactory floor.
Ganfeng Lithium: $4.5 billion giant from China is the strategic partner of International Lithium and now financing two of our J/V operations in Ireland and in Argentina. We are going where Lithium is and not just the hype around it. As we have discussed before, Lithium 2.0 is now for real as we have the real electric cars finally on the road and GM Bolt and Tesla Model 3 bring us mass market for electric cars. Cheap lithium batteries change everything. Exponential growth in EVs sales is following by deployment of Energy Storage now. Read more."
"Ganfeng exports and produces over 20 unique lithium products. In addition, it has developed an innovative patented technology that significantly shortens the standard production process. To support their expanding global operations, Ganfeng has taken steps to secure its future supply by investing heavily in a Canadian company called International Lithium Corp (TSX.V: ILC)." Peter Cole.
Oil&Gas Journal:
McKinsey: Cars, petrochemicals in oil-market ‘tug of war’
HOUSTON, July 6
07/06/2016
Overall, the consultancy has lowered its long-term outlook for oil demand to an extent that “warrants a fresh, critical look at energy investments.”
Here are highlights of the report by McKinsey analysts Occo Roelofsen, Namit Sharma, Rembrandt Sutorius, and Christer Tryggestad:
• The energy demand growth rate worldwide will slow to 0.7%/year through 2050—30% slower than the firm originally forecast.
• Energy demand will grow in emerging and developing countries and decline in Europe and North America.
• Chemicals will grow twice as fast as energy demand while demand for light vehicles peaks around 2023.
• Demand for electricity will grow at twice the rate of nonelectric energy. Solar and wind will account for almost 80% of net added capacity and 34% of generation by 2050.
• The fossil-fuel share of total energy will decline to 74% in 2050 from 82% at present. Gas will grow at almost twice the rate of total energy demand, while coal peaks by 2025. Oil demand growth will slow to 0.4%/year.
• Carbon dioxide emissions related to energy will flatten and start to subside about 2035 as efficiency of combustion engines improves, electric vehicles increase in number, and power generation shifts to wind and solar.
Petrochemicals and vehicles
Through 2035, the analysts say, 70% of growth in demand for liquid hydrocarbons will be for petrochemical feedstock.
But global demand growth for petrochemicals soon will fall to 1.2 times the increase in gross domestic product from the traditional 1.3-1.4 times GDP as mature plastics markets become saturated.
Increased plastics recycling and improved plastic-packaging efficiency can slow the rate further.
By 2030, meanwhile, electric vehicles might represent nearly half the new cars sold in China, the European Union, and the US and almost 30% globally, according to a business-as-usual case that for the first time includes adoption of autonomous vehicles and car-sharing.
“If the market penetration of electric, autonomous, and shared vehicles accelerates oil demand driven by light vehicles could be approximately 3 million b/d lower in 2035 than assumed in the business-as-usual case,” the analysts say. Accelerated adoption of light-vehicle technologies and changing plastics demand together might lower oil demand in 2035 by nearly 6 million b/d.
“An important result is that oil demand will peak around 2030 at fewer than 100 million b/d in this scenario,” the analysts say.
Structural shifts
Underlying the analysis is an expectation by McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) for a structural lowering of macroeconomic growth.
MGI cites the aging of populations in developed countries, which will lower the share of workers in the total population. With a shrinking labor force leading to “a global macroeconomic downshift” and continuation of a flattening in productivity, GDP growth in the next 50 years will be 40% lower than in the previous half-century.
A growing share of global GDP will be driven by services, which are less energy-intensive than heavy industries. And individual energy-use efficiency will improve.
MTI expects energy intensity of global growth to fall by 50% through 2050.
The McKinsey analysts suggests energy companies respond to the slowdown they see in oil-market growth by identifying “pockets of growth and investment,” “value pools across the system,” and “shaping moves and new business models required to capture value.”
No comments:
Post a Comment