Monday, 4 July 2016

Lithium Race: World’s Top 10 Selling Plug-In Electric Cars And Top 10 Manufacturers – May 2016.


InsideEVs.



Lithium Race Moves Into Ludicrous Mode: Elon Musk - Tesla Will Build 1 Million Electric Cars A Year By 2020.


 "Now we can talk about the mass market for electric cars for real! Despite all naysayers and enormous challenges Elon Musk accelerates our lithium race into a ludicrous mode. Not only Tesla Model 3 will get this "Ludicrous Mode" option as well, but Tesla production estimates are now moved into that area. Elon Musk is talking about reaching 500,000 electric cars a year two years earlier now in 2018 and mind-boggling production rate increase for Tesla to 1,000,000 electric cars a year in 2020! 
  In order to comprehend the magnitude of this very complex manufacturing operation you have to check the production rate this year: in 2016 Tesla is aiming to deliver ... 80,000 to 90,000 EVs. Financial pundits are rushing to explain already how it cannot be done on time and that Tesla will need capital and short sellers are announcing their positions. Elon Musk response is a sleeping bag next to production line to check the quality of Tesla model X on-line. Life will never be easy for those who are making things to happen. Pundits will be pundits - they will continue to talk, Elon Musk will be Elon Musk - a billionaire with the sustainable vision for this world to move forward and he will continue to make unbelievable and disrupt $12 Trillion Industry of Energy and Transportation.  Read more"




InsideEVs.


  InsideEVs provides the latest data on electric cars sales. Tesla Model S is closing on Nissan Leaf with its 16,824 sales this year from January to May vs Leaf's 22,982. As no surprise to us, BYD is the world's top EV manufacturer with 33,209 electric cars produced vs Nissan's 24,246, with Tesla claiming the 3rd place with 21,677 EVs made. Elon Musk is aiming for 80k - 90k Teslas to be produced this year. Now let's put it into perspective with his announcement of 500,000 Teslas to be produced in 2018 and 1 million EVs by 2020! But the real story is happening in Asia right now, China has become the largest market for electric cars last year already and you can see the new names coming into the EV Top Ten Manufactures like BAIC with 10,464 in sales.  There are now 28 companies producing 51 models of electric cars in China already! 


Lithium 2.0 Launch: Security Of Supply - Galaxy Resources To Buy General Mining In Lithium Takeover.




  Now you can appreciate that my scenario of lithium demand doubling within next 5 years as the conservative one. Only Tesla with its plan of 1 million EVs produced by 2020 will consume at least 60 GWh of lithium batteries capacity assuming the average of 60 KWH batteries per EV. Knowing the Elon Musk's maniacal insistence on producing the most of all components in-house, we can add Gigafactory 2 in Europe as well to the list above.
  Where will all this lithium come from? This is the very good question to ask the best experts at coming Benchmark Minerals Intelligence Lithium Batteries Supply Tour 2016, which will start in London on June 6th at UBS. I will give you a teaser and few links on this blog to dig out your own conclusion.  Albemarle is the top lithium producer now. SQM is struggling with political issues, FMC is struggling with lithium production and both are producing Lithium for less than 20% of revenue. It means that even if you can technically produce more, you have to sell 80% more of other products as fertilisers as well. Ganfeng and Tianqi are taking the market by the storm and both are in fierce competition. Now Tianqi controls Talison with Albemarle (Albemarle has acquired Rockwood Lithium) and Ganfeng is buying lithium spodumene from Talison and lithium brine concentrate from SQM. It is not very well constructed base for the exponential growth and at AGM on 21st of September 2015 Ganfeng Lithium has officially informed its shareholders: "its major risk is the security of lithium supply." Ganfeng has invested in Neometals and approved budgets for International Lithium J/V projects in Ireland and Argentina. Ganfeng owns 15% stake in International Lithium. The presentations below will provide you with more initial information for your due diligence.  Read more."



International Lithium At Wentworth 2016 Presentation.










InsideEVs:



Over 54,000 plug-in electric cars were sold in May worldwide, which is about 42% more than year ago.
With nearly 3,300 sales in May, the Nissan LEAF remains best selling model YTD by a sizable margin.
Second best is the Tesla Model S (with some 2,250 sales in May), which will need to pay some attention to the BYD Tang(3,249 moved in May), which is approaching quickly.
Thankfully for Tesla, June is the “big push” month of the quarter, so it will likely take the Tang into August before it can realistically make a run for the #2 spot.  We estimate some ~5,000 Model S sedans were sold in June – however, there is generally a lag time of about 3-4 weeks until all worldwide numbers roll in.
The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV continues to sit comfortably in fourth, as the model has already crossed the 10,000 mark this year.
After first five months, we also note that plug-in models now need to average nearly 1,500 sales a month to find themselves in the Top 10 this year.
(1) – Includes Chevrolet Volt I and II, Holden Volt, Opel and Vauxhall Ampera;

Manufacturers



World’s Top 10 Plug-In Car Manufacturers – 2016 January-May (data source: EV Sales Blog)

BYD Qin EV300
BYD is the clear leader among plug-in electric manufacturers, and there is likely no stopping them in 2016…or in 2017.
The Chinese company not only has the high selling Tang plug-in hybrid SUV, but a growing lineup of several different models (three in Top 10 YTD), which makes BYD’s lead difficult to overcome.
Nissan and Tesla take 2nd and 3rd so far this year, but it is interesting to find that BMW is now in 4th ahead of Mitsubishi.
Ford also found its way back to the Top 10 in May, tallying just over 8,700 sales.
Our thanks to EV Sales Blog for tallying up and estimating the individual sales by OEM.