Friday, 20 January 2017

Lithium Race: Audi To Launch 5 New Electrified Models In China, Including One With 500km Of Range.



It is getting crowded in China - everybody is rushing to make electric cars there. As we have discussed in the case of the whole VW Group - we are witnessing unprecedented disruption of the transportation industry with EVs climbing on the exponential part of the S-curve on one side and unprecedented transfer of the best technology for lithium batteries and electric cars to the largest market in China - on another side.  Volkswagen Group plans to produce 30 models of electric cars by 2025 in response to its emissions scandal. Now they are moving from talking to the actual walking. Lithium is the magic metal at the very heart of this Electric rEVolution.



International Lithium At Wentworth 2016 Presentation.







Lithium Race: Volkswagen Group Plans 8 Plug-in Electric Cars For China.





It looks like China is getting very fast "great again", at least in all things green. I do hope that Elon Musk will be able to save America from being "great again" with steam engines powered by "the clean coal". Now all automakers are anxious to move fast into China with their electric cars. China is The Centre of The Lithium Universe and has become the ground for mass scale testing of the most advanced technologies for the lithium batteries and electric cars. So far Chinese companies mostly were tapping in the very gracious subsidies of the Chinese government. 

These developments will put China in the lead not only in the numbers of electric cars sold but in R&D development as well after the best technology will be transferred from the West in exchange for the access to the largest auto market in the world. While the West will be debating "How can we have the Global Warming if the Weather is cold?", China will start making the best electric cars for millions facilitating The Switch.





Energy rEVolution And The Secular Bull Market In Lithium.





"Happy New Year everyone! Time is to check out what is in store for us in the coming hunting season. Lithium is in a secular bull market according to Chris Berry and now Galaxy will start M&A season by selling a stake in its "red hot" development in Argentina. We will have a lot of hype and nonsense in Lithium like in every bull market being born on this planet. Institutions will take their positions and start the "unbiased" education of their retail clients with the real push for this Next Big Thing in the mainstream. Retail investors will be primed for slaughter by the filthy promoters riding the wave of 100 and 1 new names in Lithium. Next phase will separate smart investors who will be making money from those who will be separated from their money. Your best guidance will be your own homework and guys like Joe Lowry and Chris Berry can give you a very good head-start.  

It is relatively easy this time. The Switch is happening, Energy rEVolution is the Next Big Thing and Lithium is the magic metal at the very heart of it. We have the World Just Before The Internet. You have just to avoid eToys and At Home and find Apple, Google and Facebook in this place...

At International Lithium, we will continue to build our Vertically Integrated Lithium Business with the giant from China Ganfeng Lithium. We will be learning from the best and think very hard how to build value for shareholders. The start is very simple: we are the largest shareholders in this business. Our Holding Company TNR Gold is on par with Ganfeng with its stake in ILC and I personally have around 10% in the Company. The rest of the magic can come with the very hard work. Happy New Year everybody! It is going to be another year of The Switch and a parabolic rise of Electric Cars climbing their S-curve.

Please note that in Chris Berry article Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Market Caps are in RMB, while the rest is in dollars. Read more."




The Switch.


"I will throw a few numbers just to give you a teaser here. The rest is on this blog for those who are ready to learn. The cost of Lithium in your iPhone is $1 dollar, in Tesla's Lithium battery cost of Lithium is 2-3% in the price of the finished product. We are in a generational shift 2 to 7,000: 2 is the number of the batteries in your father's remote control, more than 7,000 is the number of lithium batteries in Tesla Model S. It takes 63 kg of LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent) to build Tesla Model S 70 kWh battery. Every 1% increase in sales of Electric Cars as part of total auto sales brings new demand for 70,000 t of LCE. Total production last year was 160,000 -180,000 t of LCE. During all our humankind history 1,000,000 EVs were sold before 2015. This year alone we can get 1,000,000 electric cars sold. Worldwide we are still close only to 1% of Electric cars in total auto sales. BYD - EV automaker from China where Warren Buffett is holding a 10% stake, will sell this year 100,000 EVs, it took GM 7 years to sell the same amount 100,000 of GM Volts. China is talking now about California style Zero Emissions Mandate: 8% of all news cars to be electric by 2018 and 12% by 2020. Let's digest it for a minute. With sales of EVs now only above 1% mark, we are talking about the factor of 8X in  ... two years time and 12X increase in the number of electric cars produced in China by 2020! Now Goldman Sachs numbers can be really conservative: they are talking about 3 times increase in Lithium Demand by 2025. I am talking about the total disruption of $12 Trillion industries: 4$ Trillion Transportation and $8 Trillion Energy and Utilities. I am talking about all cars being electric very soon. 

Now you will better appreciate the following fact that International Lithium Strategic Partner Ganfeng Lithium has more than doubled its total sales in 2015 in just 9 months of this year!  We are talking here about Energy rEVolution and Lithium is the magic metal at the very heart of it. Only a few experts, as usual, do really know what they are talking about. Joe Lowry, Chris Berry and Andrew Miller from Simon Moores' Benchmark are taking the floor below.







   And The Switch ... The Switch is the coming tide when literally millions of people will be switching very fast (as fast as all those millions of EVs can be made) to the electric cars. GM Bolt will give us the first taste of what is coming. The first two electric cars priced below $40k and with a range of over 200 Miles will change everything. Tesla Model 3 will start the real flood of affordable electric cars which are just better than anything else at the same price from the ICE age. Despite all headlines about Electric Cars on my blog, 99% of all new cars are still powered by the last century technology of controlled explosions and by burning oil in different compositions while killing us all and our planet at the same time. Do you remember the 90s - The World Before The WWW and Information Revolution? Now we have 21st Century and Energy Revolution: The World Just Before The INTERNET. Read more."



Energy rEVolution: The World Just Before The INTERNET - Lithium’s Boom Year: 2016 In Review.

   



ElectricCarsReport:


"AUDI AG announced a new deal with Chinese FAW Group to introduce a series of electrified vehicles as part of a 10-year plan to expand in China. As part of the plan, the company has committed to rolling out five new electrified vehicles in China by 2022.
The agreement was signed yesterday in Changchun by Rupert Stadler, CEO of AUDI AG, Jochem Heizmann, President of Volkswagen Group China, and Xu Ping, Chairman of Board of Directors of FAW Group.
“In the past 29 years, Audi and the FAW Group have written Chinese automotive history. Together we have established the premium market in China and have continuously advanced its development,” says Rupert Stadler. “Now we are once again setting a historic milestone by enhancing our successful partnership with a strong roadmap for the coming decade.”
“We are starting the next phase of our joint growth path in China. More than ever, our partnership is focusing on profitable, sustainable growth,” says Dietmar Voggenreiter, Board Member for Sales and Marketing at AUDI AG, with regard to the signing of the agreement in Changchun. “China is the leading market worldwide for electric mobility. With our e-tron initiative, we want to create a compelling premium offer of products and services here.”
In the next five years alone, Audi and FAW have agreed to produce five additional e-tron models locally and introduce them to the Chinese market – including purely battery-powered cars with ranges of more than 500 kilometers (310.7 mi).
With the Audi A6 L e-tron as first locally produced plug-in hybrid and the Q7 e-tron as import model, Audi will sell two electrified full-size models in China from this year on.
Volkswagen Group, for its part, plans to produce 30 electric or hybrid vehicles by 2025 in response to its emissions scandal."

Thursday, 19 January 2017

Lithium Race: Volkswagen Group Plans 8 Plug-in Electric Cars For China.




It looks like China is getting very fast "great again", at least in all things green. I do hope that Elon Musk will be able to save America from being "great again" with steam engines powered by "the clean coal". Now all automakers are anxious to move fast into China with their electric cars. China is The Centre of The Lithium Universe and has become the ground for mass scale testing of the most advanced technologies for the lithium batteries and electric cars. So far Chinese companies mostly were tapping in the very gracious subsidies of the Chinese government. 

These developments will put China in the lead not only in the numbers of electric cars sold but in R&D development as well after the best technology will be transferred from the West in exchange for the access to the largest auto market in the world. While the West will be debating "How can we have the Global Warming if the Weather is cold?", China will start making the best electric cars for millions facilitating The Switch.






Lithium Race Goes Exponential: More Electric Cars Are Sold In China Than In The Rest Of The World Combined.





"Reuters reports from the grounds of The Centre of The Lithium Universe. More electric cars are sold in China than in the rest of the world combined! I will not open the very big secret telling you that these cars are not the best in the world yet and sales are driven by the government subsidies, but just imagine what will happen when really best electric cars will be sold at the prices below $30k ... then in a couple of years below $20k? A BMW 2-type car with much better performance, cheaper and with 10% of the running cost of ownership? Multiply it on the opportunity provided by the largest auto market in the world and state level fight for the survival gasping for the fresh air literally. Then just make a few calculations related to coming California Style ZEV mandates...  


We have the major catalyst in the making in China right now. The whole country is leapfrogging into the 21st century with The New Energy Plan. Implications will be very far reaching and Lithium Market is just one of the signs of things to come when bottlenecks in the supply chains are reflecting the returned appetite from the Dragon. This Lithium Race is going into the exponential part of the S-curve now. Read more."


Lithium Race: China Electric Cars Sales Going Exponential - Up 56% With Record 43,441 In November.






We have just discussed the BMI Lithium Index showing that lithium prices are strengthening again. Now you know why it is happening. BMI Lithium Index is weighted by volumes of Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide and gives you the real picture of the supply chain for high-tech applications like batteries. Lithium Hydroxide is used to make cells for the lithium batteries like Tesla is using made by Panasonic now. International Lithium's Strategic partner Ganfeng Lithium supplies Panasonic and BYD among many other battery makers in the Electric Car space. Now you have the picture ...

BYD backed by Warren Buffet is solidly in the lead in the lithium race in China this year. All in all new record of 43,441 electric cars sold in China in November must be put in the perspective. It took GM 7 years to sell 100,000 Chevy Volts from 2009! Two BYD electric cars are leading the sales in China: BYD Tang with 29,895 and BYD Qin with 21,047 units sold respectively. BYD has 4 of its EVs among the top-selling electric cars in China with BYD e6 18,077 and BY e5 13,219 sold by the end of November. And now we can see what I was talking all this year about. China is the Centre of the Lithium Universe now. BYD already sold 92,375 electric cars by December 2016! What took GM 7 years, will be done by BYD in China in just 1 year. 

We also have a very healthy new dynamic in China EVs sales now: Zotye Cloud EV is taking the first place in sales in November with 5,024 units, followed by Geely Emgrand / Dorsett EV with 3,799. Actually, BYD is not among top 5 best selling electric cars in China in November at all. We have the emerging competition in the EV space when the quality and price metrics will be driving the coming tide. The Switch will happen so much faster than anybody is expecting now. There are 25 companies in China which are making 51 models of electric cars in China now. EV sales in China are going exponential now: up 36% from the last October and 56% year over year, pulling the plug-in market share to a record 1.4%, above the Europe (1.2%) and U.S. (1.1%). 

Now you can better understand what is coming next: China is pushing for Zero Emissions Mandates with EVs reaching 8% of all new cars sales by 2018 and 12% by 2020! The Chinese electric cars market is the largest in the world now and will reach over 350,000 new electric cars in 2016 with total fleet of 650,000 estimated by the year end (The whole world had just 1.3 million on the roads in early 2016), it will be followed by Europe with 630,000 and by the U.S with 560,000. It is very important to note that we are talking here only about electric cars. To be precise EVs include electric buses and other utility vehicles like trucks. We are getting very close to my magic 1 million EVs sold just in 2016 and 2 million units in EV fleet on the world's roads. This is what I call The Switch: last 12 months we have almost doubled the amount of EVs in the world. It took us all our history to make first million of electric cars before 2015 and only 12 months to double that amount now.



Electric rEVolution: BMI Lithium Price Index In December Shows Prices Strengthening.




"I will throw a few numbers just to give you a teaser here. The rest is on this blog for those who are ready to learn. The cost of Lithium in your iPhone is $1 dollar, in Tesla's Lithium battery cost of Lithium is 2-3% in the price of the finished product. We are in a generational shift 2 to 7,000: 2 is the number of the batteries in your father's remote control, more than 7,000 is the number of lithium batteries in Tesla Model S. It takes 63 kg of LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent) to build Tesla Model S 70 kWh battery. Every 1% increase in sales of Electric Cars as part of total auto sales brings new demand for 70,000 t of LCE. Total production last year was 160,000 -180,000 t of LCE. During all our humankind history 1,000,000 EVs were sold before 2015. This year alone we can get 1,000,000 electric cars sold. Worldwide we are still close only to 1% of Electric cars in total auto sales. BYD - EV automaker from China where Warren Buffett is holding a 10% stake, will sell this year 100,000 EVs, it took GM 7 years to sell the same amount 100,000 of GM Volts. China is talking now about California style Zero Emissions Mandate: 8% of all news cars to be electric by 2018 and 12% by 2020. Let's digest it for a minute. With sales of EVs now only above 1% mark, we are talking about the factor of 8X in  ... two years time and 12X increase in the number of electric cars produced in China by 2020! Now Goldman Sachs numbers can be really conservative: they are talking about 3 times increase in Lithium Demand by 2025. I am talking about the total disruption of $12 Trillion industries: 4$ Trillion Transportation and $8 Trillion Energy and Utilities. I am talking about all cars being electric very soon. 

Now you will better appreciate the following fact that International Lithium Strategic Partner Ganfeng Lithium has more than doubled its total sales in 2015 in just 9 months of this year!  We are talking here about Energy rEVolution and Lithium is the magic metal at the very heart of it. Only a few experts, as usual, do really know what they are talking about. Joe Lowry, Chris Berry and Andrew Miller from Simon Moores' Benchmark are taking the floor below.







   And The Switch ... The Switch is the coming tide when literally millions of people will be switching very fast (as fast as all those millions of EVs can be made) to the electric cars. GM Bolt will give us the first taste of what is coming. The first two electric cars priced below $40k and with a range of over 200 Miles will change everything. Tesla Model 3 will start the real flood of affordable electric cars which are just better than anything else at the same price from the ICE age. Despite all headlines about Electric Cars on my blog, 99% of all new cars are still powered by the last century technology of controlled explosions and by burning oil in different compositions while killing us all and our planet at the same time. Do you remember the 90s - The World Before The WWW and Information Revolution? Now we have 21st Century and Energy Revolution: The World Just Before The INTERNET. Read more."
 


Green Car Reports:


"As it works to recover from its diesel emission scandal, the Volkswagen Group is rapidly embracing electric cars.
By 2025, the company hopes to be selling 1 million electric cars per year, and plans to launch 30 different electric models across multiple brands in the coming years.
According to a news report, China—for several years, the world's largest single car market—will be a major focus of the VW Group's electric-car activities.

The automaker is planning no fewer than eight new or updated plug-in models for the Chinese market, according to Chinese car website Autohome.
Citing what appears to be an internal planning document, the report shows a mix of battery-electric cars and plug-in hybrids from the main Volkswagen brand, as well as Audi and domestic Chinese brands established by VW and Chinese partners.
The list includes the Volkswagen e-Golf, an updated version of which was unveiled at the 2016 Los Angeles Auto Show with a larger battery pack, a more powerful motor, and minor styling updates.

China will also get a plug-in hybrid version of the second-generation VW Tiguan crossover.
That model may come to the U.S. as well, although Volkswagen has not confirmed anything so far.
The VW Group is also reportedly planning two larger plug-in hybrid sedans for the Chinese market.

One is an updated version of the Audi A6 L e-tron already on sale there, the other is a version of a sedan from local automaker SAIC that shares a platform with the Audi.
China will also get the Audi e-tron electric SUV, slated to start European production in 2018, as well as the production version of the Volkswagen ID concept first shown at the 2016 Paris Motor Show.
The ID is a compact hatchback, but VW also showed an alternate version called the ID Buzz at the 2017 Detroit Auto Show, with styling inspired by the classic Microbus.

Both ID concepts ride on the new Modular Electric Toolkit (MEB) platform, which was developed specifically for small electric cars.
The presentation did not specify
China has traditionally required foreign automakers to partner with domestic firms to win permission to build cars within its borders.

This is to allow local companies to learn from their more experienced foreign counterparts.
But the Chinese government is now considering relaxing those rules for plug-in electric cars.
While the government wishes local firms to be competitive in the electric-car segment, it also wants to get more electric cars on its roads faster—which it has concluded means putting fewer restrictions on the foreign automakers already producing them elsewhere.
[hat tip: Shrawan Raja, Indian Autos Blog]"

Friday, 13 January 2017

Lithium Race And The New Energy Plan: China Will Plow $361 Billion Into Renewable Power Generation By 2020.






Let's all better compete in the Clean Energy Race than Arms Race. Asymmetric Warfare will be the name of the game now.  Solar and Electric Cars mean business these days. Whoever will succeed to bring them all up to the state level scale will enjoy the benefits of virtually free energy after the CAPEX is invested, while the other side will be sitting on Trillions of dollars in stranded assets. 

Trade War - anybody? It has never stopped really and is taking its way now with the tide of disrupting technologies from the labs with literally millions of the best-trained engineering minds and into the markets taking them by storm. FED central planners can never really even imagine what the real central planning can do: China's New Energy Plan is in action now. So one would think: who should call whom now first: Elon Musk or Donal Trump?


Lithium Race Goes Exponential: More Electric Cars Are Sold In China Than In The Rest Of The World Combined.





"Reuters reports from the grounds of The Centre of The Lithium Universe. More electric cars are sold in China than in the rest of the world combined! I will not open the very big secret telling you that these cars are not the best in the world yet and sales are driven by the government subsidies, but just imagine what will happen when really best electric cars will be sold at the prices below $30k ... then in a couple of years below $20k? A BMW 2-type car with much better performance, cheaper and with 10% of the running cost of ownership? Multiply it on the opportunity provided by the largest auto market in the world and state level fight for the survival gasping for the fresh air literally. Then just make a few calculations related to coming California Style ZEV mandates...  


We have the major catalyst in the making in China right now. The whole country is leapfrogging into the 21st century with The New Energy Plan. Implications will be very far reaching and Lithium Market is just one of the signs of things to come when bottlenecks in the supply chains are reflecting the returned appetite from the Dragon. This Lithium Race is going into the exponential part of the S-curve now. Read more."





Lithium Race: Which Will Be The First Country To Ban Fuel-Burning Cars: Norway, Netherlands, Germany, India or China?






  Dr. Joe Romm provides us with more information on the recent decision of German Bundesrat to ban fuel-burning cars. This tipping point for electric cars to become the fast growing mass market is the result of the technological advance called "The Learning Curve" when doubling of production brings on average 26% in cost reduction. It is true for the price of Solar PV, it is even faster for the chip makers and for Lithium Batteries Bloomberg reports about 14-19% cost reduction every year.
  Now we are in the fast lane approaching this transition with first electric cars priced below $40k and with a range of over 200 miles coming to the market: GM Bolt and Tesla Model 3. BMW i3 with the new larger battery, Renault Zoe with 400 km range and Nissan Leaf with upgraded battery are driving the sales in Europe and China stands on its own with 25 companies making 51 models of electric cars. 
  Lithium Technology is here and the best electric cars will become only cheaper and better. Bloomberg estimates 2022 - 2026 when EVs will reach parity with ICE on capital cost alone. I will translate: depending on the country from 2022 electric cars will become cheaper to buy than comparable ICE ones. They will provide much better performance, safety and fraction of running cost to operate. This progress is inevitable and Tesla shows what is coming with Tesla Model S outselling ALL luxury sedan brands in the U.S. and Western Europe by a very wide margin. In the Q3 of this year, Tesla Model S sales were almost double of Mercedes S-Class and more than double of BMW 7!  
  And, finally, as Dr. Joe Romm is pointing out that governments start to wake up to the horrible cancer hazard air pollution on our streets from fuel-burning cars and voices for the ban of such cars are louder and louder.  We can already add Netherlands to his list of countries and I have put China there as well. Masters of the asymmetric warfare Chinese will definitely capitalize on the advance they have managed to gain with their New Energy Plan at the right time. China has the largest EVs market in the world, Warren Buffett-backed BYD is the largest manufacturer of electric carsChinese companies are the largest lithium chemicals producers for the lithium batteries already. Lithium Megafactories are rising with billions of dollars in investments and they are buying the best lithium projects to secure supply of this critical metal.
  If and when China will ban fuel-burning cars remains the speculation at this moment, but it will change the geopolitical landscape overnight making many Trillions of dollars in assets in the West worthless and some major companies literally shrinking in size within a year or two. We will have more Chinese names at the top of the World's largest companies for sure and size of the Chinese economy will jump reflecting the new growth based on the manufacturing base of the 21st centuryThis Energy rEVolution will be very fast and brutal to those unprepared. It is time to check your portfolios in order not to get caught in "The Death Spiral" - like Fitch is predicting for the oil companies. And whoever would like to start new trade wars should be thinking twice and long term in advance, like China is doing building secure lithium supply to power new Energy Plan and Electric rEVolution. With the diminishing role of Oil as the only source of Energy, will our world be able to have a peaceful transition to the new order? I will leave these worries to our brave politicians, you should think about your investments and on which side of the history you would like to be to make the difference. You can find my chronicles of this Energy rEVolution on this blog and below are some links for your own research including the Dr. Joe Romm article. Read more."




The Switch.


"I will throw a few numbers just to give you a teaser here. The rest is on this blog for those who are ready to learn. The cost of Lithium in your iPhone is $1 dollar, in Tesla's Lithium battery cost of Lithium is 2-3% in the price of the finished product. We are in a generational shift 2 to 7,000: 2 is the number of the batteries in your father's remote control, more than 7,000 is the number of lithium batteries in Tesla Model S. It takes 63 kg of LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent) to build Tesla Model S 70 kWh battery. Every 1% increase in sales of Electric Cars as part of total auto sales brings new demand for 70,000 t of LCE. Total production last year was 160,000 -180,000 t of LCE. During all our humankind history 1,000,000 EVs were sold before 2015. This year alone we can get 1,000,000 electric cars sold. Worldwide we are still close only to 1% of Electric cars in total auto sales. BYD - EV automaker from China where Warren Buffett is holding a 10% stake, will sell this year 100,000 EVs, it took GM 7 years to sell the same amount 100,000 of GM Volts. China is talking now about California style Zero Emissions Mandate: 8% of all news cars to be electric by 2018 and 12% by 2020. Let's digest it for a minute. With sales of EVs now only above 1% mark, we are talking about the factor of 8X in  ... two years time and 12X increase in the number of electric cars produced in China by 2020! Now Goldman Sachs numbers can be really conservative: they are talking about 3 times increase in Lithium Demand by 2025. I am talking about the total disruption of $12 Trillion industries: 4$ Trillion Transportation and $8 Trillion Energy and Utilities. I am talking about all cars being electric very soon. 

Now you will better appreciate the following fact that International Lithium Strategic Partner Ganfeng Lithium has more than doubled its total sales in 2015 in just 9 months of this year!  We are talking here about Energy rEVolution and Lithium is the magic metal at the very heart of it. Only a few experts, as usual, do really know what they are talking about. Joe Lowry, Chris Berry and Andrew Miller from Simon Moores' Benchmark are taking the floor below.







   And The Switch ... The Switch is the coming tide when literally millions of people will be switching very fast (as fast as all those millions of EVs can be made) to the electric cars. GM Bolt will give us the first taste of what is coming. The first two electric cars priced below $40k and with a range of over 200 Miles will change everything. Tesla Model 3 will start the real flood of affordable electric cars which are just better than anything else at the same price from the ICE age. Despite all headlines about Electric Cars on my blog, 99% of all new cars are still powered by the last century technology of controlled explosions and by burning oil in different compositions while killing us all and our planet at the same time. Do you remember the 90s - The World Before The WWW and Information Revolution? Now we have 21st Century and Energy Revolution: The World Just Before The INTERNET. Read more."




Reuters:


China will plow 2.5 trillion yuan ($361 billion) into renewable power generation by 2020, the country's energy agency said on Thursday, as the world's largest energy market continues to shift away from dirty coal power towards cleaner fuels. 
The investment will create over 13 million jobs in the sector, the National Energy Administration (NEA) said in a blueprint document that lays out its plan to develop the nation's energy sector during the five-year 2016 to 2020 period.
The NEA said installed renewable power capacity including wind, hydro, solar and nuclear power will contribute to about half of new electricity generation by 2020.
The agency did not disclose more details on where the funds, which equate to about $72 billion each year, would be spent.
Still, the investment reflects Beijing's continued focus on curbing the use of fossil fuels, which have fostered the country's economic growth over the past decade, as it ramps up its war on pollution.
Last month, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country's economic planner, said in its own five-year plan, that solar power will receive 1 trillion yuan of spending, as the country seeks to boost capacity by five times. That's equivalent to about 1,000 major solar power plants, according to experts' estimates.
The spending comes as the cost of building large-scale solar plants has dropped by as much as 40 percent since 2010. China became the world's top solar generator last year. 
"The government may exceed these targets because there are more investment opportunities in the sector as costs go down," said Steven Han, renewable analyst with securities firm Shenyin Wanguo.
Some 700 billion yuan will go towards wind farms, 500 billion to hydro power with tidal and geothermal getting the rest, the NDRC said.
The NEA's job creation forecast differs from the NDRC's in December that said it expected an additional 3 million jobs, bringing the total in the sector to 13 million by 2020. 
Concerns about the social and economic costs of China's air pollution have increased as the northern parts of the country, including the capital Beijing, have battled a weeks-long bout of hazardous smog.
Illustrating the enormity of the challenge, the NEA repeated on Thursday that renewables will still only account for just 15 percent of overall energy consumption by 2020, equivalent to 580 million tonnes of coal.
More than half of the nation's installed power capacity will still be fueled by coal over the same period.
(Reporting by Meng Meng and Beijing Monitoring Desk; Writing by Josephine Mason; Editing by Michael Perry and Christian Schmollinger)"

Thursday, 12 January 2017

Lithium Race Goes Exponential: More Electric Cars Are Sold In China Than In The Rest Of The World Combined.




Reuters reports from the grounds of The Centre of The Lithium Universe. More electric cars are sold in China than in the rest of the world combined! I will not open the very big secret telling you that these cars are not the best in the world yet and sales are driven by the government subsidies, but just imagine what will happen when really best electric cars will be sold at the prices below $30k ... then in a couple of years below $20k? A BMW 2-type car with much better performance, cheaper and with 10% of the running cost of ownership? Multiply it on the opportunity provided by the largest auto market in the world and state level fight for the survival gasping for the fresh air literally. Then just make a few calculations related to coming California Style ZEV mandates...  


We have the major catalyst in the making in China right now. The whole country is leapfrogging into the 21st century with The New Energy Plan. Implications will be very far reaching and Lithium Market is just one of the signs of things to come when bottlenecks in the supply chains are reflecting the returned appetite from the Dragon. This Lithium Race is going into the exponential part of the S-curve now.


Lithium Race: China Electric Cars Sales Going Exponential - Up 56% With Record 43,441 In November.






We have just discussed the BMI Lithium Index showing that lithium prices are strengthening again. Now you know why it is happening. BMI Lithium Index is weighted by volumes of Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide and gives you the real picture of the supply chain for high-tech applications like batteries. Lithium Hydroxide is used to make cells for the lithium batteries like Tesla is using made by Panasonic now. International Lithium's Strategic partner Ganfeng Lithium supplies Panasonic and BYD among many other battery makers in the Electric Car space. Now you have the picture ...

BYD backed by Warren Buffet is solidly in the lead in the lithium race in China this year. All in all new record of 43,441 electric cars sold in China in November must be put in the perspective. It took GM 7 years to sell 100,000 Chevy Volts from 2009! Two BYD electric cars are leading the sales in China: BYD Tang with 29,895 and BYD Qin with 21,047 units sold respectively. BYD has 4 of its EVs among the top-selling electric cars in China with BYD e6 18,077 and BY e5 13,219 sold by the end of November. And now we can see what I was talking all this year about. China is the Centre of the Lithium Universe now. BYD already sold 92,375 electric cars by December 2016! What took GM 7 years, will be done by BYD in China in just 1 year. 

We also have a very healthy new dynamic in China EVs sales now: Zotye Cloud EV is taking the first place in sales in November with 5,024 units, followed by Geely Emgrand / Dorsett EV with 3,799. Actually, BYD is not among top 5 best selling electric cars in China in November at all. We have the emerging competition in the EV space when the quality and price metrics will be driving the coming tide. The Switch will happen so much faster than anybody is expecting now. There are 25 companies in China which are making 51 models of electric cars in China now. EV sales in China are going exponential now: up 36% from the last October and 56% year over year, pulling the plug-in market share to a record 1.4%, above the Europe (1.2%) and U.S. (1.1%). 

Now you can better understand what is coming next: China is pushing for Zero Emissions Mandates with EVs reaching 8% of all new cars sales by 2018 and 12% by 2020! The Chinese electric cars market is the largest in the world now and will reach over 350,000 new electric cars in 2016 with total fleet of 650,000 estimated by the year end (The whole world had just 1.3 million on the roads in early 2016), it will be followed by Europe with 630,000 and by the U.S with 560,000. It is very important to note that we are talking here only about electric cars. To be precise EVs include electric buses and other utility vehicles like trucks. We are getting very close to my magic 1 million EVs sold just in 2016 and 2 million units in EV fleet on the world's roads. This is what I call The Switch: last 12 months we have almost doubled the amount of EVs in the world. It took us all our history to make first million of electric cars before 2015 and only 12 months to double that amount now.



Electric rEVolution: BMI Lithium Price Index In December Shows Prices Strengthening.




"I will throw a few numbers just to give you a teaser here. The rest is on this blog for those who are ready to learn. The cost of Lithium in your iPhone is $1 dollar, in Tesla's Lithium battery cost of Lithium is 2-3% in the price of the finished product. We are in a generational shift 2 to 7,000: 2 is the number of the batteries in your father's remote control, more than 7,000 is the number of lithium batteries in Tesla Model S. It takes 63 kg of LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent) to build Tesla Model S 70 kWh battery. Every 1% increase in sales of Electric Cars as part of total auto sales brings new demand for 70,000 t of LCE. Total production last year was 160,000 -180,000 t of LCE. During all our humankind history 1,000,000 EVs were sold before 2015. This year alone we can get 1,000,000 electric cars sold. Worldwide we are still close only to 1% of Electric cars in total auto sales. BYD - EV automaker from China where Warren Buffett is holding a 10% stake, will sell this year 100,000 EVs, it took GM 7 years to sell the same amount 100,000 of GM Volts. China is talking now about California style Zero Emissions Mandate: 8% of all news cars to be electric by 2018 and 12% by 2020. Let's digest it for a minute. With sales of EVs now only above 1% mark, we are talking about the factor of 8X in  ... two years time and 12X increase in the number of electric cars produced in China by 2020! Now Goldman Sachs numbers can be really conservative: they are talking about 3 times increase in Lithium Demand by 2025. I am talking about the total disruption of $12 Trillion industries: 4$ Trillion Transportation and $8 Trillion Energy and Utilities. I am talking about all cars being electric very soon. 

Now you will better appreciate the following fact that International Lithium Strategic Partner Ganfeng Lithium has more than doubled its total sales in 2015 in just 9 months of this year!  We are talking here about Energy rEVolution and Lithium is the magic metal at the very heart of it. Only a few experts, as usual, do really know what they are talking about. Joe Lowry, Chris Berry and Andrew Miller from Simon Moores' Benchmark are taking the floor below.







   And The Switch ... The Switch is the coming tide when literally millions of people will be switching very fast (as fast as all those millions of EVs can be made) to the electric cars. GM Bolt will give us the first taste of what is coming. The first two electric cars priced below $40k and with a range of over 200 Miles will change everything. Tesla Model 3 will start the real flood of affordable electric cars which are just better than anything else at the same price from the ICE age. Despite all headlines about Electric Cars on my blog, 99% of all new cars are still powered by the last century technology of controlled explosions and by burning oil in different compositions while killing us all and our planet at the same time. Do you remember the 90s - The World Before The WWW and Information Revolution? Now we have 21st Century and Energy Revolution: The World Just Before The INTERNET. Read more."
 



Reuters:



By Jake Spring | BEIJING
More electric cars are sold in China than in the rest of the world combined, but are mainly locally-branded models that are cheaper and have a shorter range than those offered by foreign automakers such as Tesla (TSLA.O) and Nissan (7203.T).
The Chinese-branded electric vehicle (EV) market is propped up by huge government subsidies as part of Beijing's policy to build global leadership in cleaner energy driving.
China has spent billions of dollars on subsidies to help companies including Warren Buffett-backed BYD (002594.SZ) (1211.HK) and BAIC Motor (1958.HK) achieve large-scale production of plug-in vehicles, which are gaining traction among urban drivers as well as taxi fleets and government agencies.
Sales of battery electric and plug-in hybrids increased 60 percent in January-November, to 402,000 vehicles. By 2020, China wants 5 million plug-in cars on its roads.
The domestic EVs don't have the 'wow' factor of a fast, longer-range and luxury-style Tesla. They sell on price.
In Shanghai last year, a two-door battery electric Chery eQ cost around 60,000 yuan ($8,655) after subsidies. Without subsidies, the eQ would cost an additional 100,000 yuan or so. At this week's Detroit auto show, General Motors (GM.N) showed off its latest Bolt EV, which costs around $30,000 after a $7,500 federal tax credit.
"EV cars are very cheap (in China), you'll only spend a little money to buy a car. If you just go to work or use an EV in the city, it's OK ... for using within 100 kms (62 miles)," said Xie Chao, who works for a chemical company in Shanghai.
Xie said he has bought three EVs since 2015 - an Anhui Jianghuai Automobile (600418.SS) iEV4, a BAIC EV160 and a Geely Automobile (0175.HK) Emgrand EV - one for him to use, one for his wife and one he rents out.
Most Chinese electric cars come with similar specifications, so price is the deciding factor, said Dawei Zhang, CEO of EVBuy, a dealer. The eQ has been the top seller in recent months, with decent enough quality at a low price, he said.
"It's a transport tool. It's purely for mobility rather than for showing off, having a big car for all the family, or for any technology factors," he added.
Some EV buyers in Beijing and Shanghai said they primarily bought plug-in vehicles to easily get a license plate. Half a dozen of China's biggest cities tightly control license plates for traditional gasoline cars, but freely award plates that can only be used by plug-in vehicles. 
For those set on buying a plug-in, price is key.
"I only considered BYD and BAIC. I definitely can't afford the 300,000-600,000 yuan price of a luxury-style Tesla or Denza," said Qu Lijian, a 31-year-old government worker in Beijing, who eventually opted for a BYD Qin pure electric car.
Denza is a Chinese brand produced by a joint venture between BYD and Daimler (DAIGn.DE).
SUBSIDY SLOWDOWN
China's cocktail of pro-electric policies is a challenge for global automakers, as foreign manufacturers can access subsidies only via joint ventures with local partners, producing cars under new made-for-China brand names such as Denza. 
But those brands lack the cachet of established foreign marques, and cost more than most local brands even after subsidies.
That's in part because Chinese automakers are more aggressive in lowering their costs regardless of quality, said an executive at a multinational auto parts firm.
"The lowest price wins (the contract). That's the process, no questions asked," said the executive, who declined to be identified to avoid impacting future contract bidding. 
"And when you win, they come back and ask you for another price reduction," the executive added, noting less stringent safety regulations in China also help keep costs lower than in the United States.
The version of the Leaf that Nissan's joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile (600006.SS) offers in China, under the Venucia brand, "isn't selling very well," Nissan's global chief Carlos Ghosn told Reuters in November. Chinese EV buyers don't want to spend much more than $8,000, after incentives, and the Nissan vehicle is too expensive, Ghosn said.
The playing field for foreign brands in China should, though, gradually even out as subsidies are phased out by 2020.
This year, subsidies have been reduced by a fifth, likely adding about 15,000 yuan to the price of a Chery eQ, though official 2017 subsidies for individual models aren't yet clear, notes EVBuy.
Local EV manufacturers have, with the help of subsidies, been able to build economies of scale, pushing down their cost per unit and allowing them to spend more on research and development, Li Yunfei, BYD's deputy chief of branding and public relations, told Reuters.
"By 2020, China will have no subsidies, but your scale has expanded, your costs have come down, and you'll be able to hit a price that consumers can accept," he said.
While China has grabbed early-mover advantage, global automakers plan to quickly ramp up their plug-in offerings in the world's biggest market. GM's local joint venture, for example, promises to spend 26.5 billion yuan ($3.8 billion) on electrification and developing 10 "new energy" models by 2020.
It won't be one-way traffic.
Chinese brands such as GAC Motor and BYD are looking to advance on global rivals' home turf.
GAC Motor, part of Guangzhou Automobile Group (601238.SS), debuted its pure electric GE3 sport utility vehicle, among other models, at the Detroit show on Monday. A spokeswoman told Reuters that the company plans to enter the United States by 2019, delaying from an initial target of 2017, without further explanation.
Shenzhen-based BYD already sells its electric buses in Africa, Europe and South America and has a factory in the United States. The company is preparing "on all fronts" to enter foreign passenger car markets, Li said, without elaborating.
"Because Chinese companies have this large Chinese market, when they have big enough scale and their power grows, their products improve and they increasingly understand foreign markets," he said.
"In the future, they will definitely take the world stage. The potential is huge."
(Reporting by Jake Spring, with additional reporting by Joseph White in DETROIT; Editing by Ian Geoghegan)"