Thursday 28 April 2016

Lithium Race: Tesla Model 3 Base Battery Less Than 60 kWh, “All-In” Pack Costs Already Under $190/kWh!


  This is huge if Tesla Model S and X lithium batteries are already with "All-In" cost per kWh at $190! It is made on the very low volume and before Tesla Gigafactory. We are not even talking about the next step for Lithium Technology - Solid State Lithium Batteries. GM has reported before that GM Bolt will enjoy $145 per kWH pricing, but LG Chem was not very happy with that announcement - I personally suspect that LG Chem was going very aggressive in that pricing just to get into the first electric car for the mass market from GM. All recent developments are pointing out that adoption for Electric Cars will surprise everybody and this tide is coming to take the world over very fast.

Ireland Lithium For Europe: ILC And Ganfeng - Germany Plans $1.4 Billion In Incentives For Electric Cars.

 This is really big news for us at International Lithium and Ganfeng - finally Germany is putting its act together. CNBC is on all morning on Volkswagen - New York Times reported that there was a Power Point Presentation in 2006 how to cheat on emissions. It is only the beginning of AutoGate - all autos cannot comply with any limits in the real driving conditions. Now Mercedes is under investigation, FIAT, PSA Peugeot, Mitsubishi was rigging fuel consumption data from ... 1991! What does it mean? It means that when you account all costs properly Electric Cars are already cheaper than ICE age once with much better performance. The problem is that we do not have enough good ones.  People are buying all they can get from Tesla Motors. Tesla Model S has already outsold in Europe Audi 8, BMW 7 and Mercedes S in 2015!

  This is the real news without hype: people will buy more EVs now. Germany is igniting the EV boom in Europe's largest auto-market. India, Norway, Netherlands and Austria are all considering banning any new ICE cars to be sold in 2020s! Now the question is how to build millions of electric cars and fast. Daimler, LG Chem and A123 are building lithium batteries factories in Europe now. Tesla is talking to Germany and France on the next Tesla Gigafactory 2 location in Europe. From the last year I am calling for Elon Musk to come to Ireland where we are developing Avalonia J/V with Ganfeng Lithium. In my very personal opinion Ganfeng should be building its own lithium production plant in Ireland right at the doorstep of Europe. After Apple's melt down on the slowing sales of iPhones there are a lot of calls for it to buy into the Next Big Thing and buy Tesla. The automakers that can strike a strategic alliance with Tesla Motors and buy Tesla Model 3 lithium technology and power-trains will make millions of electric cars and take the market over. Will it be China again with its military plan to dominate the post carbon economy after this Next Industrial rEVolution in Energy? Read More.

Lithium Technology Catalyst: Generational Shift From 2 to 7,000 - Video Inside The Tesla Battery.

  As you already know, all cars will be electric. The question now is how fast? What is the technology behind this incredible drive and performance of Tesla electric cars? I would like to share this great video from Tesla Model 3 Owners Club. Now you can have a glance into the Tesla Lithium Battery Technology literally. Tesla Gigafactory is the key to meet the totally unexpected even by Elon Musk demand for Tesla Model 3 now. 400,000 reservations in just two weeks speak volume about the real demand for the best affordable electric cars for the masses. Cheap lithium batteries change everything, now we have to make millions of the best EVs available. 
  Who will join the race to mass market now? GM Bolt will give us the first test of being electric on scale, Tesla Model 3 will start the real tide, but who will make millions of EVs per year now? We have the groundbreaking catalyst in place for the lithium industry. We are shifting from consuming 2 batteries per household in your father's TV remote control to more than 7,000 in Tesla model S. Panasonic which supplies lithium cells to Tesla buys lithium from Ganfeng in China. International Lithium is plugged into development of Ganfeng Lithium Vertically integrated business in China with our J/V in Ireland and Argentina. Maybe you have missed that 28 companies in China are making 51 models of Electric Cars already? They are not competitors to Tesla yet, but are getting there. And by the way, Elon Musk is getting himself into China with Tesla Motors as well. Will we be able to build "Made in USA" best Electric Cars on scale? International Lithium is building the supply chain for North America now. Watch the video"


This week, UBS analyst Colin Langan suggested his research indicated that any base Tesla Model 3 cars sold at $35,000 would be done so at a significant loss; mainly due to the still relatively expense costs of the e-drivetrain and advanced production parameters of the car – a statement that I think many of can agree with.  The money is in the options
For his part, Elon Musk earlier suggested the day of the Model 3’s introduction that he believed the average selling/optioned Model 3 would net the company about $42,000.
Elon Musk Thoughts On Average Model 3 Selling Price (@elonmusk)
Elon Musk Thoughts On Average Model 3 Selling Price (@elonmusk)
UBS’ Langan hosted a call on the Model 3 with Jon Berisa (President & CEO of Auto Lectrification), who also served 35 years with GM, some of which as a chief engineer on the Chevy Volt.
Mr. Bereisa noted a “best case” for final battery pack costs (not just the cells) comes in at about $133-155/kWh in ~9 years times.
Tesla Model 3 Debuted March 31st, 2016 - 215 Miles Of Range, From $35,000
Tesla Model 3 Debuted March 31st, 2016 – 215 Miles Of Range, From $35,000
Reports the StreetInsider:
“In a detailed breakdown of factory variable cost (FVC), Jon sees the Model 3’s FVC $1,510 above base price of $35k vs. the Bolt’s FVC $4,980 below base price of $37.5k. Compared to the Bolt, the Model 3 adds incremental variable cost from its aluminum content, lack of scale, extra sensors, a faster propulsion system, and higher pack costs. Jon estimates TSLA’s pack costs at $260/kWh and GM’s at $215/kWh (due to GM sourcing the cell at-cost from LG).”
So an interesting report to be sure…and then Tesla’s head of Investor Relations, Jeff Evanson called in to take it up a notch, and to dispute some of the conclusions of the pair.
The first issue taken with the report was that the Model 3 is actually only partially aluminum, not all-aluminum to the extent of the Model S, and the second issue was on the size of the Model 3 battery, and what the actual battery pack costs are today for the Model S/X, and how the “maths” based on all those figures work out on the Model 3.
  • the Model S/X “all-in” battery pack costs today is less that $190/kWh, and
  • that the Model 3 will have a base battery sized smaller than 60 kWh
The question now of course is how much below 60 kWh can the model 3 actually be to net the estimated 215 mile range pegged by Tesla at the vehicle’s launch last month?
Given the upcoming Chevrolet Bolt EV has a 60 kWh battery and early estimates by “sources” for that car have its EPA rating landing around 210-220 miles, it could not be too much less.  Perhaps ~55 kWh?  Nissan’s 2016 SV/SL LEAF achieves 107 miles of range on 30 kWh…but is aerodynamically a laggard in the EV space compared to many of its peers.

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