Tuesday, 2 December 2014

Chris Martenson: The Crash Course - Shale Oil. Can We Survive This Energy War?

   Let's put some numbers and technical details of the "Shale Oil Revolution" into perspective. Please make no mistake: Currency Wars are moving fast into Energy Wars or, more precisely - Shale Oil Wars. The economic miracle in U.S is based on the cheap energy and strong US dollar will be killing it fast. The weaker US Dollar must come to save the Shale Oil now.
  We have the technology to change all this geopolitical picture ones and for all - Electric Cars and Elon Musk with Tesla Motors has demonstrated the power of lithium based power-trains. When finally will it  be fully embraced, using this opportunity of the borrowed time of "Shale Oil revolution?"

Elon Musk Interview: World Needs Hundreds of Gigafactories.

  Elon Musk talks about the Gigafactory and incredible numbers behind his vision: "Everything will be fully electric, except for Rockets!" In China his vision can be the only way forward with personal mobility due to the terrible level of air pollution. Read more."

ZeroHedge: Federal Reserve Confirms Biggest Foreign Gold Withdrawal In Over Ten Years.

  The disconnect in the demand for Gold and its manipulated price continues ... Instead of breaking out above MA50 Gold was sold out heavily in the very thin holiday trade with Oil crashing down after OPEC decision. Next week will be crucial for the Gold and other commodities markets. US Dollar on the chart below will be the guide. Who will risk deflation now? Higher US Dollar and lower Oil prices mean exactly that. Say good buy to Oil Shale and all economic boom connected to it. Before yesterday the most crowded trade: Long US Dollar looked like reversing itself, next week will show the next step in this epic ongoing Oil and Currency Wars.
  Actually for the FED the higher Gold price and lower US Dollar will be the best outcome now - it will show the "so much needed Inflation", save Shale Oil and allow to manage next cycle of the gradual rise in the stock market preventing the collapse. In this logicdiscussion about ECB ability to buy Gold doesn't look so crazy any more. Will FED join this game now? At some stage it will have to deliver all that Gold "safely stored in its vaults" and this repatriation virus is not going just to fade away. Normally markets are positioned for the majority of participants to lose, this outcome will be the most unexpected I guess. Read more."

Chris Martenson:

"If you've watch the previous video chapter on Peak Cheap Oil, you may be wondering how any of that could be still be true given all the positive recent stories about shale oil and shale gas , many of which have proclaimed that “Peak Oil is dead”.
The mainstream press has faithfully repeated every press and PR statement made by the shale producers. And if you simply followed the headlines, you might even believe this about the US: - It is soon going to be energy independent, - Its oil production will surpass even Saudi Arabia putting it in the number one spot,and - The US will even be exporting oil again like the days of old.
The only problem with this story is that it is misleading in some very important ways. And entirely false in others.
Here are there are five main things to know about the shale plays. 1. They deplete very quickly. The typical shale, or tight rock, well production declines by 80% to 90% within three years. 2. They are expensive. All oil and gas coming form them is several times more expensive than what we got from conventional oil plays. 3. They are environmentally damaging because the fracking fluid is highly toxic and much of it escapes during the blowback process and sometimes water wells are contaminated. 4. Because each well has low flow and depletes quickly, massive numbers of wells must be drilled creating significant infrastructure damage to roads and bridges. Currently no state or municipal authorities are capturing anything close to the total cost of the infrastructure damage from the shale operators which means taxpayers are gong to be left paying those bills. 5. Not all shale plays are created equal – some are vastly superior to others. And even within a given play there are sweet spots and dry holes which can only be determined by punching a well in and seeing what comes out. Some call this the ‘mapping by braille’ approach.
When we put all of these together it adds up to a very expensive set of plays that will only last for a very short while.
To the extent that mainstream press has been conveying the message that peak oil is dead and that our energy concerns have been laid to rest is the extent to which they have been misleading us.
In many ways, the increased crude output from shale plays has bought us some time. We can either use the temporary boost in energy supplies, expensive though they are, to build towards a future when these too eventually run out, or we can use them as an excuse to carry on with business as usual.
If we do choose business as usual as our operating strategy - I use that word very loosely – then we will just march straight into the shale oil peak around the year 2020 and be very disappointed with ourselves and our utterly inappropriate transportation infrastructure."