Lithium Race And Tesla Earthquake Aftershock: Coming Electric Cars Tsunami - Electrification Of China And India.
Kirill Klip, Executive Chairman International Lithium Corp.
International Energy Agency is finally seriously promoting electric cars. This brilliant infographic gives us the sense of what is really happening in the EV space now. I will give you another headline: "Tesla Earthquake Aftershock: Lithium Supply Chain Market Is Not Even Close To Being Ready For The Coming Electric Cars Tsunami." - translation is on the links below on my blog. I will help your research with another digest. Energy rEVolution is very hard to miss now, but the intensity of continued Oil and ICE Age auto-lobby disinformation propaganda tells me that serious money is still to be made in this Next Industrial rEVolution.
The Lithium Technology is here. It took all humankind history to reach 1 million electric cars on our roads by 2015 and then just over a year to double it to 2 million units in the EV fleet in 2016! This is called exponential growth and we are at the very beginning of it. We have just crossed 1% of electric cars sales share for worldwide auto sales and electric cars are still just 0.2% of the total number of cars in the world. We have a long way to go to all new cars being electric, but it can be much faster than a lot of people think: Lithium Race At IMF: "Electric Cars Can Replace Motor Vehicles In The Next 10 To 25 Years."
Norway already has a 29% share of electric cars sales;
Netherlands - 6.4%;
Sweden - 3.4%;
China, France, UK - 1.5% (each);
U.S. - 1.4%.
Now with an introduction of Tesla Model 3, this growth in EV sales will be dramatically accelerated. Tesla Model S and X comprise 45% of all electric cars' sales in the US this year! They are the best electric cars, but also the most expensive. Somebody has put it brilliantly about Tesla Model 3: "We had the best electric cars and we had the affordable electric cars. Now we have the best affordable electric car". The other more than 200 models of electric cars coming by 2020 will do the rest.
Electrification of China and India will drive the next phase of the worldwide growth in EV fleet. India has announced that all new cars on sale will be electric by 2030 and they are taking it seriously making the first tender for 10,000 EVs to be supplied for the government ministries and agencies now. Transfer of the best technology for Lithium Batteries and Electric Cars will be next. China is already The Centre of The Lithium Universe and exercises its state-level New Energy Plan step by step with the military discipline, starting with securing a Lithium Supply Chain.
IEA reports that in 2016, China accounted for more than 40% of the electric cars sold in the world, with 336,000 new cars registered. That is more than double the number sold in the U.S. China also has the largest electric car stock, with about a third of the global total EV fleet. But EVs are more than just electric cars: China has more than 200 million electric two-wheelers, 3 to 4 million low-speed EVs and 300,000 electric buses. The next fast growing sector will be electric trucks, like the ones produced by BYD. BYD is backed by Warren Buffett with his 10% stake and is the largest EV maker in the world at this moment, but Tesla is expected to overtake this company in the number of electric cars produced per month by the end of this year.
BYD is very proud to be back on the wave in China in July with over 11k EVs sold, it gives us over 130k per year EVs sold annualized. Elon Musk is talking about the rate of production with 20k Teslas per month by the end of this year and over 500k per year by the end of 2018. Tesla has more than 400,000 reservations for its Model 3. Now Elon Musk estimates the demand for Tesla Model 3 at 700,000 per year.
We have The Switch in action when millions will be choosing electric cars. Bloomberg is forecasting that we will be able to choose from 200 EV models by 2020 and Elon Musk is "thinking hard" where to build Gigafactories 3,4,5 and 6. The market is not even close to the proper translation of what kind of EV tsunami is coming and how it will affect the demand for lithium and other energy metals.
Our starting point for electric cars is just over 1% of total auto sales in the world against only 200,000 tonnes of LCE produced in 2016. The dramatic increase in demand for lithium will require accelerated production from all known reserves of lithium and new resources will need to be found and put into production, this being crucial to the Energy rEVolution.
LEGAL DISCLAIMER
Lithium Hydroxide Production From Brine: Effective Separation Of Lithium From Contaminants By Membrane Technology.
Lithium Hydroxide Production From Brine: Effective Separation Of Lithium From Contaminants By Membrane Technology.
Kirill Klip, Executive Chairman International Lithium Corp.
We are talking here a lot about the new groundbreaking technologies for electric cars and lithium batteries. Now it is time to consider the most advanced technologies for the production of lithium as a raw material. The increasing usage of lithium batteries is driving the demand for lithium as a raw material and new extraction technologies will provide the technological advantage to the most progressive companies investing in the future.
My lower estimate for future demand is that 36 million tonnes of LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent) must be produced by 2040 in order to meet the IEA's target for the 600 million electric cars necessary to keep global temperature increase below 2%. However, over 100 million tonnes of LCE will be needed if all new cars are to be electric by 2040, this being one of IMF's scenarios for the future. Now let's just start adding here the Energy Storage for Solar and Wind Power Generation.
Our starting point for electric cars is just over 1% of total auto sales in the world and only 200,000 tonnes of LCE produced in 2016. The dramatic increase in demand for lithium will require accelerated production from all known reserves of lithium and new resources will need to be found and put into production, this being crucial to the Energy rEVolution.
At International Lithium, we are very interested in processes developed for the recovery of Lithium Hydroxide directly from brine. Lithium Hydroxide is the highly sought strategic commodity which is used in lithium batteries as Tesla and Panasonic are doing for example at Tesla Gigafactory. Read more.
My lower estimate for future demand is that 36 million tonnes of LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent) must be produced by 2040 in order to meet the IEA's target for the 600 million electric cars necessary to keep global temperature increase below 2%. However, over 100 million tonnes of LCE will be needed if all new cars are to be electric by 2040, this being one of IMF's scenarios for the future. Now let's just start adding here the Energy Storage for Solar and Wind Power Generation.
Our starting point for electric cars is just over 1% of total auto sales in the world and only 200,000 tonnes of LCE produced in 2016. The dramatic increase in demand for lithium will require accelerated production from all known reserves of lithium and new resources will need to be found and put into production, this being crucial to the Energy rEVolution.
At International Lithium, we are very interested in processes developed for the recovery of Lithium Hydroxide directly from brine. Lithium Hydroxide is the highly sought strategic commodity which is used in lithium batteries as Tesla and Panasonic are doing for example at Tesla Gigafactory. Read more.
LEGAL DISCLAIMER
Please read legal disclaimer. There is no investment advice on this blog. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before any investment decisions. DYOR.
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