Morgan Stanley joins top financial institutions with its own very bold prediction for over a billion electric cars on the road by 2050. You will not be surprised to hear from me that, actually, this is quite a conservative estimate and all new cars can be electric by 2040. IMF has issued a report "Riding the Energy Transition: Oil Beyond 2040" - "Just as motor vehicles displaced horses a century ago, electric cars could replace motor vehicles in the next 10 to 25 years"
Please note that in IMF's view for the electric cars my forecast of 36 million tonnes of LCE (Lithium Carbonate) to be produced by 2040 is very conservative and must be tripled in order to accommodate this transition to a fully electric fleet of new cars. According to The Economist, in the case of all new cars being electric by 2040, this fleet will count 1.8 Billion electric cars. We are talking here about over 100 million tonnes of LCE being produced by 2040 in order to make it happen.
Our starting point for electric cars is just over 1% of total auto sales in the world and only 200,000 tonnes of LCE produced in 2016. The dramatic increase in demand for lithium will require accelerated production from all known reserves of lithium and new resources will need to be found and put into production, this being crucial the Energy rEVolution.
LEGAL DISCLAIMER
Lithium Hydroxide Production From Brine: Effective Separation Of Lithium From Contaminants By Membrane Technology.
Lithium Hydroxide Production From Brine: Effective Separation Of Lithium From Contaminants By Membrane Technology.
Kirill Klip, Executive Chairman International Lithium Corp.
We are talking here a lot about the new groundbreaking technologies for electric cars and lithium batteries. Now it is time to consider the most advanced technologies for the production of lithium as a raw material. The increasing usage of lithium batteries is driving the demand for lithium as a raw material and new extraction technologies will provide the technological advantage to the most progressive companies investing in the future.
My lower estimate for future demand is that 36 million tonnes of LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent) must be produced by 2040 in order to meet the IEA's target for the 600 million electric cars necessary to keep global temperature increase below 2%. However, over 100 million tonnes of LCE will be needed if all new cars are to be electric by 2040, this being one of IMF's scenarios for the future. Now let's just start adding here the Energy Storage for Solar and Wind Power Generation.
Our starting point for electric cars is just over 1% of total auto sales in the world and only 200,000 tonnes of LCE produced in 2016. The dramatic increase in demand for lithium will require accelerated production from all known reserves of lithium and new resources will need to be found and put into production, this being crucial the Energy rEVolution.
At International Lithium, we are very interested in processes developed for the recovery of Lithium Hydroxide directly from brine. Lithium Hydroxide is the highly sought strategic commodity which is used in lithium batteries as Tesla and Panasonic are doing for example at Tesla Gigafactory. Read more.
My lower estimate for future demand is that 36 million tonnes of LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent) must be produced by 2040 in order to meet the IEA's target for the 600 million electric cars necessary to keep global temperature increase below 2%. However, over 100 million tonnes of LCE will be needed if all new cars are to be electric by 2040, this being one of IMF's scenarios for the future. Now let's just start adding here the Energy Storage for Solar and Wind Power Generation.
Our starting point for electric cars is just over 1% of total auto sales in the world and only 200,000 tonnes of LCE produced in 2016. The dramatic increase in demand for lithium will require accelerated production from all known reserves of lithium and new resources will need to be found and put into production, this being crucial the Energy rEVolution.
At International Lithium, we are very interested in processes developed for the recovery of Lithium Hydroxide directly from brine. Lithium Hydroxide is the highly sought strategic commodity which is used in lithium batteries as Tesla and Panasonic are doing for example at Tesla Gigafactory. Read more.
Barron's:
Tesla: The Right Electric Vehicle at the Right Price?
Morgan Stanley predicts that over a billion electric cars will be on the road by 2050--and Tesla's success is one reason why.
"Yesterday, the folks at Morgan Stanley issued a massive report on the future of electric vehicles call On the Charge. In it, its analysts contend that there "over a billion EVs on the road by 2050," and explore nearly every aspect of the electric vehicle universe from the automakers to infrastructure to metals demand from batteries.
ILLUSTRATION: GETTY IMAGES
The first part of the report is titled "Why BEVs [battery electric vehicles] are really coming this time" and it's certainly justified that they begin there. Electric vehicles, after all, have been talked about for decades now, but there success looks, if not assured, then far more likely, and Tesla's(TSLA) success is one reason why.
The reason: "Tesla shows that the consumer preference for internal combustion engines can be swayed," Morgan Stanley's analysts write. They explain why:
Even successful electric vehicles such as the Nissan Leaf have made little headway in gaining global car market share, and many vehicles have failed to sell in any volume at all. However, technology and usability are improving, and charging times are falling. There will come an inflection point where range and usability combine with the right price.
The Tesla Model S has taken a 30% share in the $100k plus US luxury market share, and with over 400,000 orders in less than a month after initial launch, the Tesla Model 3 launch also suggests there is plenty of consumer demand for the right electric vehicle product at the right price."
No comments:
Post a Comment