Teslarati provides very interesting outlook for the potential economy of scale at the Tesla Gigafactory. Race is on to reduce price for lithium batteries and start the real rEVolution with mass market for electric cars.
"Now auto-makers can start to be really worried. ICE cars can become obsolete very fast. Elon Musk has just opened huge energy storage market combined with unprecedented growth in Solar installations all around the world. Tony Seba will be the good source to comprehend this tectonic shift."
Tesla Gigafactories: Is There Enough Lithium to Maintain the Growth of the Lithium-Ion Battery Market?
Elon Musk talks about "hundreds of Gigafactories to come" and other lithium batteries players are building their own Megafactories today. Tam Hunt brings the hot industry subject to the headlines. The short answer is: Yes, we have enough Lithium potentially in the world for electrification of all our transportation. But in order to get it as the raw material ready to be used we have to invest hundreds of millions of dollars and years to build this supply chain. The security of supply of lithium is taking the central stage for the main battery grade lithium producers.
The drama is that the demand is coming when junior miners are cut off the capital they need to develop the new projects. That is why International Lithium is very well positioned to participate in this trend with the financing of our lithium J/V projects by Chinese giant Ganfeng Lithium. Lithium supply issues are hitting headlines now and our results are coming from our exploration programs these days. You can find more information from lithium industry insiders on the supply issues on this blog.
We have great news today from our both J/V projects with Ganfeng Lithium! You already know about my personal vision for the lithium industry and our strategic partnership between International Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium from China. Now we have results coming in from our exploration and development programs.
The success of Tesla’s GigaFactory is critical to any increase in its share price and here’s why.
At present, the lithium to make lithium ion batteries comes mostly from South America. From there it gets shipped to North America for refining and processing. Then it goes to Japan or South Korea for further refining and processing. Finally, it comes back to North America as part of batteries that will be installed in an electric car. That car will then be sold in America, Europe or China. A first year business administration student can tell you there are huge inefficiencies built into that system.
According to Forbes, the genius of the Tesla plan is to consolidate as many of those steps as possible under the roof of its GigaFactory in Nevada. Forbes calculates that even if consolidation only shaves a few percentage points off the cost of each step in the process, the cumulative effect will be significant savings. It estimates savings of 10% are possible in both supply chain costs and labor costs. Then, if the volume of Tesla automobile sales increases, economies of scale should account for a further 10% reduction, for total savings of 30%.
But there’s one thing the Forbes report doesn’t take into consideration — the impact on profits from selling batteries for purely non-automotive uses such as grid storage systems coupled with commercial, industrial and residential uses.