Showing posts with label Federal Reserve System. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Federal Reserve System. Show all posts

Tuesday, 27 January 2015

Oil Wars: U.S. Shale Oil to Crash American Economy.



  Plunging commodities and rising US Dollar are signalling deflation, will ECB QE save the world with Chinese stimulus now? Can FED really raise the rates in this situation? Yesterday's run on Gold could show us the things to come. FED Open Mouth Committee can start to talk the US Dollar down now. Euro is weak enough already to hurt US corporations earnings. Triple blow from killed Shale Oil, slowing export and going down earnings from overseas will put FED in the corner. Strong dollar means deflation - the very thing they are fighting against now. Once dollar will reverse its parabolic rise we can have our day with gold. Gold above $1,350 will bring this story back on the mainstream investors' radar screens.


Oil Wars: How Low Can Oil Go?




 How low can oil go? What will happen at $20 dollar Oil? Will this crash trigger another financial crisis and Great Recession?


Jim Rickards Discusses Future of Saudia Arabia.



   Oil is the wild card played last year on the backdrop of all Currency Wars. Now the Shale Oil related financing could bring the shock to the whole financial system again. 

Chris Martenson: The Crash Course - Shale Oil. Can We Survive This Energy War?



   "Let's put some numbers and technical details of the "Shale Oil Revolution" into perspective. Please make no mistake: Currency Wars are moving fast into Energy Wars or, more precisely - Shale Oil Wars. The economic miracle in U.S is based on the cheap energy and strong US dollar will be killing it fast. The weaker US Dollar must come to save the Shale Oil now.
  We have the technology to change all this geopolitical picture ones and for all - Electric Cars and Elon Musk with Tesla Motors has demonstrated the power of lithium based power-trains. When finally will it  be fully embraced, using this opportunity of the borrowed time of "Shale Oil revolution?"

Saturday, 24 January 2015

Oil Wars: How Low Can Oil Go?



  How low can oil go? What will happen at $20 dollar Oil? Will this crash trigger another financial crisis and Great Recession?

Jim Rickards Discusses Future of Saudia Arabia.



   Oil is the wild card played last year on the backdrop of all Currency Wars. Now the Shale Oil related financing could bring the shock to the whole financial system again. 

Chris Martenson: The Crash Course - Shale Oil. Can We Survive This Energy War?



   "Let's put some numbers and technical details of the "Shale Oil Revolution" into perspective. Please make no mistake: Currency Wars are moving fast into Energy Wars or, more precisely - Shale Oil Wars. The economic miracle in U.S is based on the cheap energy and strong US dollar will be killing it fast. The weaker US Dollar must come to save the Shale Oil now.
  We have the technology to change all this geopolitical picture ones and for all - Electric Cars and Elon Musk with Tesla Motors has demonstrated the power of lithium based power-trains. When finally will it  be fully embraced, using this opportunity of the borrowed time of "Shale Oil revolution?"




Thursday, 8 January 2015

David Morgan: Oil, Derivatives And Unbelievable Lack of Trust in the System.


"If the oil sector unraveled, as it is doing now, what would happen to gold and silver prices? David Morgan of Silver-Investor.com thinks, “Gold, I am pretty sure, would maintain right where it’s at, and that would be the worst case scenario, or it would go up and go up rapidly. Gold and silver may go down temporarily like we saw in 2008, but they will catch a bottom and come up. Silver in a deflationary environment has not done that well in the past. . . . Gold and silver are crisis hedges. People will say I don’t know what is happening. I’m scared. I need something I can trust. You can trust money that has been money for 5,000 years. That’s something you can trust. . . . You can’t escape the truth. The truth wins out in the end. We are getting to that point, an inflection point. I think gold will go up, and I think silver would follow and probably go up more rapidly once people caught on there is uncertainty. There is an unbelievable lack of trust in the system. People need something they can trust. Physical gold and silver is something you can trust, and it’s been that way for thousands of years. People aren’t that stupid, they understand that.” Morgan goes on to say, “I am not implying this is going to unravel tomorrow. I think it’s going to take a longer time frame than you might expect. I really think it’s going to take four or five months from now. I am thinking May or June before you start looking for the repercussions of this sub $50 (per barrel) oil.”


Chris Martenson: The Crash Course - Shale Oil. Can We Survive This Energy War?



   "Let's put some numbers and technical details of the "Shale Oil Revolution" into perspective. Please make no mistake: Currency Wars are moving fast into Energy Wars or, more precisely - Shale Oil Wars. The economic miracle in U.S is based on the cheap energy and strong US dollar will be killing it fast. The weaker US Dollar must come to save the Shale Oil now.
  We have the technology to change all this geopolitical picture ones and for all - Electric Cars and Elon Musk with Tesla Motors has demonstrated the power of lithium based power-trains. When finally will it  be fully embraced, using this opportunity of the borrowed time of "Shale Oil revolution?" Read more."

Friday, 2 January 2015

Inside Story: What's Driving Oil Prices Down?


  

Chris Martenson: The Crash Course - Shale Oil. Can We Survive This Energy War?


Let's put some numbers and technical details of the "Shale Oil Revolution" into perspective. Please make no mistake: Currency Wars are moving fast into Energy Wars or, more precisely - Shale Oil Wars. The economic miracle in U.S is based on the cheap energy and strong US dollar will be killing it fast. The weaker US Dollar must come to save the Shale Oil now.
  We have the technology to change all this geopolitical picture ones and for all - Electric Cars and Elon Musk with Tesla Motors has demonstrated the power of lithium based power-trains. When finally will it  be fully embraced, using this opportunity of the borrowed time of "Shale Oil revolution?"

Tuesday, 2 December 2014

Chris Martenson: The Crash Course - Shale Oil. Can We Survive This Energy War?



   Let's put some numbers and technical details of the "Shale Oil Revolution" into perspective. Please make no mistake: Currency Wars are moving fast into Energy Wars or, more precisely - Shale Oil Wars. The economic miracle in U.S is based on the cheap energy and strong US dollar will be killing it fast. The weaker US Dollar must come to save the Shale Oil now.
  We have the technology to change all this geopolitical picture ones and for all - Electric Cars and Elon Musk with Tesla Motors has demonstrated the power of lithium based power-trains. When finally will it  be fully embraced, using this opportunity of the borrowed time of "Shale Oil revolution?"

Elon Musk Interview: World Needs Hundreds of Gigafactories.



  Elon Musk talks about the Gigafactory and incredible numbers behind his vision: "Everything will be fully electric, except for Rockets!" In China his vision can be the only way forward with personal mobility due to the terrible level of air pollution. Read more."



ZeroHedge: Federal Reserve Confirms Biggest Foreign Gold Withdrawal In Over Ten Years.




  The disconnect in the demand for Gold and its manipulated price continues ... Instead of breaking out above MA50 Gold was sold out heavily in the very thin holiday trade with Oil crashing down after OPEC decision. Next week will be crucial for the Gold and other commodities markets. US Dollar on the chart below will be the guide. Who will risk deflation now? Higher US Dollar and lower Oil prices mean exactly that. Say good buy to Oil Shale and all economic boom connected to it. Before yesterday the most crowded trade: Long US Dollar looked like reversing itself, next week will show the next step in this epic ongoing Oil and Currency Wars.
  Actually for the FED the higher Gold price and lower US Dollar will be the best outcome now - it will show the "so much needed Inflation", save Shale Oil and allow to manage next cycle of the gradual rise in the stock market preventing the collapse. In this logicdiscussion about ECB ability to buy Gold doesn't look so crazy any more. Will FED join this game now? At some stage it will have to deliver all that Gold "safely stored in its vaults" and this repatriation virus is not going just to fade away. Normally markets are positioned for the majority of participants to lose, this outcome will be the most unexpected I guess. Read more."

Chris Martenson:

"If you've watch the previous video chapter on Peak Cheap Oil, you may be wondering how any of that could be still be true given all the positive recent stories about shale oil and shale gas , many of which have proclaimed that “Peak Oil is dead”.
The mainstream press has faithfully repeated every press and PR statement made by the shale producers. And if you simply followed the headlines, you might even believe this about the US: - It is soon going to be energy independent, - Its oil production will surpass even Saudi Arabia putting it in the number one spot,and - The US will even be exporting oil again like the days of old.
The only problem with this story is that it is misleading in some very important ways. And entirely false in others.
Here are there are five main things to know about the shale plays. 1. They deplete very quickly. The typical shale, or tight rock, well production declines by 80% to 90% within three years. 2. They are expensive. All oil and gas coming form them is several times more expensive than what we got from conventional oil plays. 3. They are environmentally damaging because the fracking fluid is highly toxic and much of it escapes during the blowback process and sometimes water wells are contaminated. 4. Because each well has low flow and depletes quickly, massive numbers of wells must be drilled creating significant infrastructure damage to roads and bridges. Currently no state or municipal authorities are capturing anything close to the total cost of the infrastructure damage from the shale operators which means taxpayers are gong to be left paying those bills. 5. Not all shale plays are created equal – some are vastly superior to others. And even within a given play there are sweet spots and dry holes which can only be determined by punching a well in and seeing what comes out. Some call this the ‘mapping by braille’ approach.
When we put all of these together it adds up to a very expensive set of plays that will only last for a very short while.
To the extent that mainstream press has been conveying the message that peak oil is dead and that our energy concerns have been laid to rest is the extent to which they have been misleading us.
In many ways, the increased crude output from shale plays has bought us some time. We can either use the temporary boost in energy supplies, expensive though they are, to build towards a future when these too eventually run out, or we can use them as an excuse to carry on with business as usual.
If we do choose business as usual as our operating strategy - I use that word very loosely – then we will just march straight into the shale oil peak around the year 2020 and be very disappointed with ourselves and our utterly inappropriate transportation infrastructure."


Sunday, 30 November 2014

Swiss Have Voted No To Gold Initiative: SNB Will Not Compete With China, India and Russia.

  


  Swiss people have voted today with no to the Swiss Gold Initiative. BIS and SNB can report back to FED the good news. Jim Rickards will have so large new audience to educate for his books in the years to come now. China, India and Russia will be buying Gold without any competition from the West now. Monday Gold trading session will be interesting with record negative GOFO rates, India news and, as some are suggesting, even short covering in Gold on this news.
  The focus should be on the dollar and Oil, stock exchanges in Saudi Arabia and Dubai are falling very sharply today and Saudi Arabia is in a bear market now. All these games can be out of control and Shale Oil in U.S. economic miracle is at stake now.


 Peter Schiff has discussed the expected by him No Vote last Friday with interesting observation: "Now all Swiss people who voted yes, will be buying Gold to protect themselves."

  

ZeroHedge: Federal Reserve Confirms Biggest Foreign Gold Withdrawal In Over Ten Years.


The disconnect in the demand for Gold and its manipulated price continues ... Instead of breaking out above MA50 Gold was sold out heavily in the very thin holiday trade with Oil crashing down after OPEC decision. Next week will be crucial for the Gold and other commodities markets. US Dollar on the chart below will be the guide. Who will risk deflation now? Higher US Dollar and lower Oil prices mean exactly that. Say good buy to Oil Shale and all economic boom connected to it. Before yesterday the most crowded trade: Long US Dollar looked like reversing itself, next week will show the next step in this epic ongoing Oil and Currency Wars.  Actually for the FED the higher Gold price and lower US Dollar will be the best outcome now - it will show the "so much needed Inflation", save Shale Oil and allow to manage next cycle of the gradual rise in the stock market preventing the collapse. In this logic discussion about ECB ability to buy Gold doesn't look so crazy any more. Will FED join this game now? At some stage it will have to deliver all that Gold "safely stored in its vaults" and this repatriation virus is not going just to fade away. Normally markets are positioned for the majority of participants to lose, this outcome will be the most unexpected I guess. Read more."



ZeroHedge:

Swiss Gold Referendum Fails: 78% Vote Against "Protecting The Country's Wealth"




Whether as a result of an unprecedented scare campaign by the Swiss National Bank (most recently reinforced by Citigroup), or due to confidence that Swiss gold is as safe abroad as it is at home, or simply due to good old-fashioned "hanging chads", today's most awaited event has come and gone and the result - according to early projections by Swiss television SRF - is that the Swiss population overwhelmingly rejected a referendum to force the Swiss National Bank to hold some 20% of its reserves in gold in a landslide vote, with about 78% voting against what AP politely termed "protecting the country's wealth by investing in gold." ... 
...And then there is the question of what happens to the tension in the gold swap market: as noted last week, the 1 Month GOFO rate had tumbled to the most negative in over a decade. It was not clear if this collateral gold squeeze was the result of Swiss referendum overhang or due to other reasons. The market's reaction on Monday should answer those questions. Read more at ZeroHedge."


Saturday, 8 November 2014

Gold and Commodities: What Is next - Major Reversal Or Another Bloodbath?



  We had a small party this Friday with Gold short covering in a full action. Will this Reversal hold to its promise now? All hope was lost for the Gold bugs and all miners were obliterated in capitulation last week. This is when the bottoms are formed. No buyers and everybody who can has already sold. Last few weeks we had no bids in any junior miners and if any volume came in it was sold at any price. It is The Capitulation. I have seen it before and not a lot of people out of our industry can believe it, but we have hit even the lower low than in the middle of financial Panic in 2008 in our sector!
  Nobody knows the future and I am not a trader any more. I have to stick with my companies moving forward, building up the assets even when nobody cares any more. But when the turn-around comes the move from insanity Low to another side is the most dramatic of all as well. You just have to stay in one piece before it. Have we reached this level?
  The chart above could be the answer. Everybody is Bullish on US Dollar and Markets. Everybody is Bearish on Gold and Miners. Sentiments are at the total extremes.  Fundamentals are supporting much higher Gold, Silver and Copper prices. The most important: smart money - Industry Insiders are buying the best assets now.
  Please notice the fist Candle when USD started this rally in May 2014, the move was dramatic and uninterrupted. Now we have the Reversal Candle just formed. What will bring the downward pressure on US Dollar now? I do not know, but Nothing grows up into the Sky. Strong US Dollar means that Deflation can become the reality. Who will risk it now? We will see very soon and the next week will be very important. The real short squeeze has not even started yet. 
  Alan Greenspan talking about Gold as Premier Currency, Charles Nenner calling the cycle bottom and China buying record amount of Gold could be the signs of the tide coming up now to the gold market.
  You can find my previous posts links to showcase my Big Picture view on this blog and I will remind you about our assets in International Lithium and TNR Gold, as usual.


TNR Gold Los Azules Copper M&A: Barrick In Talks With Chinese Miner Zijin On Pascua-Lama Investment.

  

  "Argentina comes to the forefront of mining M&A activity with this report about Barrick's talks with another Chinese miner. Los Azules copper is located in the same province San Juan in Argentina and will benefit from any potential development at Pascua Lama. China is very active in Argentina. Trade and military cooperation agreements were signed and currency swap line is in place now. Recent change to the investment rules will allow more investment into the very lucrative shale oil sector in the country. Next year elections should be changing the investment climate for the better as well continuing this trend. Read more."


International Lithium Corp. and Ganfeng Lithium Finalize Joint Venture on Mariana Lithium Brine Project, Argentina.





China Rolls Out Welcome Mat for Electric Cars: Ganfeng Lithium Partners with International Lithium in Argentina and Ireland.



“Ganfeng has an army of lithium-focused geologists who looked at projects in every corner of the planet,” stated ILC president Kirill Klip in an exclusive interview, “but they chose ILC to do business with. This is a big de-risking factor for our current and future shareholders. The Chinese do their homework. They believe in the geology of our assets, our management and our development strategy.” Read more.



International Lithium And Ganfeng Lithium: Avalonia Lithium Project, Ireland.






Friday, 7 November 2014

Video: Peter Schiff's Message to Switzerland: Save Your Currency and Your Country.


Peter Schiff joins the voices to support the Yes Vote in Swiss Gold Referendum.

Bloomberg: 1,500 Tons Of Gold On The Line In Swiss Vote To Buy Back Bullion.


The story about Swiss Gold Referendum has made its way up to the Bloomberg. Now everything depends on the people of Switzerland, but at least we will have the opportunity for the proper discussion about the FIAT Currency systems and Gold. China is not only buying record amounts of gold now, but taking out the best long term mining assets all over the globe.

TNR Gold Los Azules Copper M&A: Barrick In Talks With Chinese Miner Zijin On Pascua-Lama Investment.



Grant Williams: All You Need To Know About Swiss Gold Referendum.


Great presentation from Grant Williams on this groundbreaking event for the Switzerland and the Gold market! We are close to the very important catalyst point for the Gold market now.

Sunday, 19 October 2014

Switzerland Is Only Country That Would Vote For Bigger Gold Reserves.



  I continue to follow Swiss Gold Referendum developments and would like to share the very important news for TNR Gold.


Swiss Gold Initiative Referendum to Acquire 1500 tons of Gold.




TNR Gold Receives Royalty From McEwen Mining On "One Of The Largest Undeveloped Copper Projects".




Stay tuned: new presentation will reflect this very important development for our company.






Kitco:


(Kitco News) - If there is one country in the world that would vote yes in a referendum to force its central bank to increase its gold reserves, it would be Switzerland, said one Liechtenstein fund manager.
Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, fund manager at Incrementum AG and author of the In Gold We Trust report, said that he is not surprised there is a campaign to increase the country’s gold reserves as the yellow metal has had a long tradition of being linked to the Swiss franc.
Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, fund manager at Incrementum AG and author of the In Gold We Trust report
“Switzerland used to have the highest gold reserves per-capita in the world up to about 10 years ago,” he said. “A lot of people still believe that gold is the foundation and the backbone of a strong currency.”
Stoeferle is in a unique position regarding the gold vote because Liechtenstein, which borders Switzerland, uses the Swiss franc as its currency. The vote, if passed, could have an impact on the country’s currency because it would impact the Swiss National Bank’s foreign reserves. Although Liechtenstein doesn’t get a say in the Swiss referendum Stoeferle has been following the initiative closely.
On Nov. 30, Swiss citizens will go to the polls to vote on three areas; whether or not the Swiss National Bank should increase its gold reserves to 20%, that the central bank should stop selling its precious metals and that all its gold should be held within the country.
With less than two months to go, Stoeferle explained that the Swiss gold referendum has now started to attract a lot of attention across the globe; however, he added that it is still too early to determine how popular the initiative is among the Swiss populace. He added that the campaign, started by the Swiss People’s party in April of 2013 after they collected more than 100,000 signatures to force the referendum, is expected to begin in earnest on Oct. 21.
Although it is still too soon to gauge the sentiment in the country, Stoeferle added that a lot of people aren’t happy that the central bank has expanded its balance sheet to weaken its currency and stimulate growth. Since 2011, the SNB has pegged the franc to the euro and maintains a floor of 1 euro to 1.20 francs.
“A lot of people believe that debasing the currency is not a sound economic policy,” said Stoeferle, “There is no evidence that a weak currency leads to long-term economic growth.”
The yes camp is up against some strong opposition as both the Swiss government and the national bank have urged people to vote down the gold initiative. Last week the Swiss government continued its campaign against the referendum as Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf, the country’s Finance Minster said at a press conference in Bern, that fixed gold reserves would impede the SNB’s monetary policy.
Although there are some short-term benefits from a weaker currency like increased exports, Stoeferle said that he doesn’t believe those benefits outweigh the weaker purchasing power on imports. Instead, he added, the government should be implementing stronger economic policies and encourage companies to be more efficient to compete in the global marketplace.
“Perhaps a weaker currency makes good short-term gains but a central bank should not act like a hedge fund. I think they need to think in the long-term what is best for the country and the currency,” he said.
Whether the referendum passes or not, Stoeferle said the next few weeks will be an interesting time for the country as the population discusses the future of its central bank’s monetary policy. He is expecting the referendum to raise awareness of the country’s economy and currency.
“This initiative is the result of direct democracy, which is something the people are very proud of,” he said. “This referendum will impact the country’s economy and currency and I think the people will very quickly become interested in this discussion.”
Currently Switzerland holds about 1,040 metric tons of gold, which makes about 7.8% of its foreign reserves. Last week currency analysts at Nomura said if the referendum passes the country will have to triple its reserves during the next five years to meet its 20% commitment. They added that the SNB will have to purchase between $67 and $83 billion worth of gold.
By Neils Christensen of Kitco News; nchristensen@kitco.com"

Monday, 13 October 2014

James Rickards - Next Crash Exponentially Larger than Any Financial Panic in History.


"James Rickards, best-selling author of “The Death of Money,” says a huge financial panic is a mathematical certainty. Rickards explains, “It is a mathematical certainty, but I can take it further . . . what you don’t hear is this will be exponentially larger than any financial panic in the past. . . . The next time, the Fed is going to be in trouble. They are already insolvent on a mark- to-market basis. Each bailout gets much bigger than the one before. The Fed has a 10 foot seawall, and they are going to get hit with a 50 foot tsunami."

Jim Rickards: 16 Intelligence Agencies Have Issued Alarm Report On US Dollar Reserve Status.


  "It is good time to contemplate on the gold fundamentals while the sentiment in the Gold market is hitting  another low and US Dollar seems to be rising with stock markets straight into the sky now. We have now Jim Rickards himself to dissect all ongoing "Currency Wars" which lead us into "The Death Of Money".
  Developments in Switzerland and China are coming now right from the pages of Jim Rickards's books. And if you think that Currency and Trade wars in late 1920s are different from what is happening now in Europe with Russia and Ukraine, this video is for you. Read more."




Swiss Gold Referendum: What Is It All About? UBS: 1,500 t Of Gold Buying By SNB At Stake.


It is the very good speech, but the most significant here is the place where it is happening: Swiss Parliament. It could be very much the beginning of the global reset.


And who is buying Gold now:






Swiss Gold Referendum: People of Switzerland Demand Global Gold Recall Despite Central Bankers.


  "Mass media is very slow to pick up on this groundbreaking development in Switzerland. Scotland referendum, Catalonia quest for independence will be just orchestrated "democratic noise" compare to this real democracy in action and its implications for the worldwide financial system. China  or Switzerland - who will be first to create the gold backed currency now? Read more."

Tuesday, 30 September 2014

Gold And Madness Of Crowds - ZeroHedge: Summarizing The "Long Dollar Trade" In One Chart.




ZeroHedge:


Summarizing The "Long Dollar Trade" In One Chart



With the USD experiencing its longest stretch of weekly gains since Bretton Woods, it appears, as SocGen notes, that recent currency movements have triggered nostalgia of the pre-crisis world when dollar strength was synonymous with a prosperous global economy. However, given the extreme positioning and potential for policy-maker complacency, SocGen warns the paradox is thus that a strong dollar tantrum could be a more worrying scenario than a Fed tightening tantrum. Read more on ZeroHedge."



Trees never grow all the way up into the sky, but sometimes for a while it seems just like this.




Aden Sisters.






And who is buying Gold now:



TNR Gold Shotgun: NOVAGOLD Reports Major Progress in Advancing Donlin Gold up the Value Chain.






  "We have the major news for Alaska Gold mining industry from our neighbours - Donlin Gold is moving forward! NOVAGOLD and TNR Gold were developing Shotgun Gold project together and in 2010 our company has consolidated the project and now owns 100% of it. NOVAGOLD has received TNR Gold's shares and warrants. Greg Johnson - one of the founders of NOVAGOLD has joined TNR Gold board after our very impressive results from the drilling program in the Fall 2012. Please watch the video to find out his personal statement:

"The mineralization style observed at Shotgun Ridge bears a strong resemblance to the 40 million ounce deposit at the Donlin Gold project operated by Barrick and NovaGold," stated recently appointed director Greg Johnson, "The similar age and host intrusive rocks suggest that, with continued exploration, there is significant potential to locate larger volumes of mineralization in and around Shotgun Ridge."



  This development by NOVAGOLD will put Alaska back on the radar screens of Gold investors as the safe mining jurisdiction and stronger Gold prices will drive the next stage of projects development. Please read my legal disclaimer. Read more."