Saturday, 6 January 2018

The UK Goes Full-on Electric In Lithium Race: The Switch Is ON - Plug-in Car Registrations Break Records In December.

The UK Is going full-on Electric in Lithium Race: The Switch is ON and Plug-in registrations are hitting another high of 2.9% on the exponential part of the adoption S-curve. This is an increase of 42% over the previous high in November with 2.4% of electric cars sold among all auto sales.

And you know what is the secret? There are no best affordable electric cars in the UK yet. We had the best electric cars like Tesla Model S and X and we had affordable cars. Now we have the best and affordable electric car - Just wait for Tesla Model 3 to hit our street in numbers. And Bloomberg is talking that more than 200 EV models to chose from are coming by 2020.

UBS made a report earlier this year that EVs will be cheaper to own in 2018. Last month we had a report that EVs are cheaper to own already after 4 years in the UK, US, Japan and other countries. The switch is here. Millions of people are ready to switch and buy electric cars.

It took us all human history to get to 1st million of EVs by 2015, then less than two years to 2 million EVs by 2017. I expect that EV sales will be over 1 million units in 2018 alone. This the exponential Stage of S-curve for adoption rate of EVs.

Lithium is the magic metal at the very heart of this energy rEVolution. I am not surprised that UBS is advising their wealthy clients that Lithium demand will jump by more than 2,898% in the 100% EV world.

IEA reports that in order to keep the temperature increase below 2% we must have 600 Million EVs by 2040. It means that we have to produce 36 Million tonnes of lithium LCE by 2040. Our starting point is 200,000 t of Lithium LCE produced in 2016.

Chronicles of Energy rEVolution: Roskill Triples Its Base Case For Lithium Demand To Soar From 200,000 T To 1 Million T Of LCE By 2026.

Our industry is waking up to the ongoing Energy rEVolution and start producing more realistic scenarios for unprecedented demand for lithium which is coming in the next decade. As you remember, any lithium production start-up needs not only capital but time: 3-5 years for brine and even longer for hard rock mining operationsLithium - The Perfect Storm With Unprecedented Demand Profile is just upon us. Roskill triples its base case for lithium demand to soar to 1,009,000 T of LCE per year by 2026. And here a reminder about the starting point will be timely: 200,000 T of lithium LCE was produced in 2016. (Please note that colour on the graph with a key "Glass and Ceramics" must be attributed to "Batteries")

Our Lithium inverted pyramid for disruption of $12 T Transportation and Energy Industries is in action and prices in China are already going through the roof. Now brave forecast by Mike Beck that Lithium Hydroxide prices can soar as much as $100,000 per T can be at least mentioned on my blog. And my totally outrages forecast just a few months ago that we have to produce 36 Million T of lithium LCE by 2040 looks very conservative. Should I dust off my own brave prediction that we will need to produce 100 Million T of lithium LCE by 2050 now?

International Lithium is now moving full speed ahead with our JV partner Ganfeng Lithium after the reached settlement agreement that confirmed our 27% plus stake in Mariana Lithium JV in Argentina (including 10% back-in right). Ganfeng Lithium is the largest integrated lithium material producer in China and Mariana Lithium JV is shaping up as the very important lithium brine system in the world.My friends from VSA Capital in London are calling it number 6 in the world and I was always conservative with my "among the top 10 in the world". Read more.

Next Greencar:

Registrations of plug-in cars have reached a record market share for December 2017. Electric vehicles accounted for 2.9% of all cars registered during the month according to figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).
In total, 4,426 electric cars were registered in December 2017 - almost double the number registered in December 2016 - taking the total for 2017 as a whole to a record 47,164 vehicles.
Plug-in market share for 2017 in total came in at 1.9%, and there are now more than 132,000 total electric car registrations as of the end of 2017. Of 2017's plug-in car registrations, 95% were eligible for the UK Plug-In Car Grant - almost 45,000 - with that figure sitting at 94% for December. 
The split between pure-EV and PHEV models registered remains strongly in the latter's favour. PHEV registrations accounted for 78% of December units, and ended the year on 71% of total plug-in registrations. Of all plug-in cars registered in the UK, two thirds of them are PHEVs.

Electric Car Registrations - Dec 2017

December's pure-EV figures showed a 17% decline vs the previous year, though this was off-set by an increase in PHEV registrations of more than 88%. Registrations for Plug-in Car Grant eligible models increased 46% compared to December 2016.
Put into perspective, the plug-in car market remains small compared to overall sales, but is showing larger growth than any other area. Total car registrations for 2017 were down 6% compared to 2016, though sales over the past 12 months were still the third highest in a decade, with more than 2.5 million cars sold.
Electric cars - and hybrids - are benefiting from two main changes to the UK car market. There are more and better plug-in models available and greater infrastructure on offer to support drivers. The market is also taking some of the sales from diesel, which has seen significant decline in 2017. 
Diesel registrations have dropped more than 30% compared to 2016, with petrol down just 2% and alternatively fuelled vehicles - which include EVs, PHEVs, and hybrids - up 37%. Diesel market share in 2016 was 47% of total registrations, but now accounts for less than 38% in 2017. Petrol cars made up more than 56% of 2017 registrations, with AFVs contributing to more than 5% of the market.
The drop in diesel sales has seen the average official CO2 figures of cars sold in 2017 rise - the first time this has happened since 1997. The increase is only slight though, off-set in part by the plug-in models, despite their relatively small market share. Average CO2 for 2017 registrations was 121.04 g/km, up 0.8% on 2016.
December 2017 saw the sixth highest number of electric car registrations ever, behind September 2017's fifth place by just 18 units. The last quarter of 2017 was only the third best on record, but the second half of 2017 was the best ever with almost 25,000 electric cars registered between July and December inclusive. The average number of electric cars registered each month was 3,930 for 2017, up almost 1,000 units a month from 2016's 3,081."

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