Sunday 25 December 2016

Lithium Race: China Electric Cars Sales Going Exponential - Up 56% With Record 43,441 In November.

We have just discussed the BMI Lithium Index showing that lithium prices are strengthening again. Now you know why it is happening. BMI Lithium Index is weighted by volumes of Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide and gives you the real picture of the supply chain for high-tech applications like batteries. Lithium Hydroxide is used to make cells for the lithium batteries like Tesla is using made by Panasonic now. International Lithium's Strategic partner Ganfeng Lithium supplies Panasonic and BYD among many other battery makers in the Electric Car space. Now you have the picture ...

BYD backed by Warren Buffet is solidly in the lead in the lithium race in China this year. All in all new record of 43,441 electric cars sold in China in November must be put in the perspective. It took GM 7 years to sell 100,000 Chevy Volts from 2009! Two BYD electric cars are leading the sales in China: BYD Tang with 29,895 and BYD Qin with 21,047 units sold respectively. BYD has 4 of its EVs among the top-selling electric cars in China with BYD e6 18,077 and BY e5 13,219 sold by the end of November. And now we can see what I was talking all this year about. China is the Centre of the Lithium Universe now. BYD already sold 92,375 electric cars by December 2016! What took GM 7 years, will be done by BYD in China in just 1 year. 

We also have a very healthy new dynamic in China EVs sales now: Zotye Cloud EV is taking the first place in sales in November with 5,024 units, followed by Geely Emgrand / Dorsett EV with 3,799. Actually, BYD is not among top 5 best selling electric cars in China in November at all. We have the emerging competition in the EV space when the quality and price metrics will be driving the coming tide. The Switch will happen so much faster than anybody is expecting now. There are 25 companies in China which are making 51 models of electric cars in China now. EV sales in China are going exponential now: up 36% from the last October and 56% year over year, pulling the plug-in market share to a record 1.4%, above the Europe (1.2%) and U.S. (1.1%). 

Now you can better understand what is coming next: China is pushing for Zero Emissions Mandates with EVs reaching 8% of all new cars sales by 2018 and 12% by 2020! The Chinese electric cars market is the largest in the world now and will reach over 350,000 new electric cars in 2016 with total fleet of 650,000 estimated by the year end (The whole world had just 1.3 million on the roads in early 2016), it will be followed by Europe with 630,000 and by the U.S with 560,000. It is very important to note that we are talking here only about electric cars. To be precise EVs include electric buses and other utility vehicles like trucks. We are getting very close to my magic 1 million EVs sold just in 2016 and 2 million units in EV fleet on the world's roads. This is what I call The Switch: last 12 months we have almost doubled the amount of EVs in the world. It took us all our history to make first million of electric cars before 2015 and only 12 months to double that amount now.

Electric rEVolution: BMI Lithium Price Index In December Shows Prices Strengthening.

"I will throw a few numbers just to give you a teaser here. The rest is on this blog for those who are ready to learn. The cost of Lithium in your iPhone is $1 dollar, in Tesla's Lithium battery cost of Lithium is 2-3% in the price of the finished product. We are in a generational shift 2 to 7,000: 2 is the number of the batteries in your father's remote control, more than 7,000 is the number of lithium batteries in Tesla Model S. It takes 63 kg of LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent) to build Tesla Model S 70 kWh battery. Every 1% increase in sales of Electric Cars as part of total auto sales brings new demand for 70,000 t of LCE. Total production last year was 160,000 -180,000 t of LCE. During all our humankind history 1,000,000 EVs were sold before 2015. This year alone we can get 1,000,000 electric cars sold. Worldwide we are still close only to 1% of Electric cars in total auto sales. BYD - EV automaker from China where Warren Buffett is holding a 10% stake, will sell this year 100,000 EVs, it took GM 7 years to sell the same amount 100,000 of GM Volts. China is talking now about California style Zero Emissions Mandate: 8% of all news cars to be electric by 2018 and 12% by 2020. Let's digest it for a minute. With sales of EVs now only above 1% mark, we are talking about the factor of 8X in  ... two years time and 12X increase in the number of electric cars produced in China by 2020! Now Goldman Sachs numbers can be really conservative: they are talking about 3 times increase in Lithium Demand by 2025. I am talking about the total disruption of $12 Trillion industries: 4$ Trillion Transportation and $8 Trillion Energy and Utilities. I am talking about all cars being electric very soon. 

Now you will better appreciate the following fact that International Lithium Strategic Partner Ganfeng Lithium has more than doubled its total sales in 2015 in just 9 months of this year!  We are talking here about Energy rEVolution and Lithium is the magic metal at the very heart of it. Only a few experts, as usual, do really know what they are talking about. Joe Lowry, Chris Berry and Andrew Miller from Simon Moores' Benchmark are taking the floor below.

   And The Switch ... The Switch is the coming tide when literally millions of people will be switching very fast (as fast as all those millions of EVs can be made) to the electric cars. GM Bolt will give us the first taste of what is coming. The first two electric cars priced below $40k and with a range of over 200 Miles will change everything. Tesla Model 3 will start the real flood of affordable electric cars which are just better than anything else at the same price from the ICE age. Despite all headlines about Electric Cars on my blog, 99% of all new cars are still powered by the last century technology of controlled explosions and by burning oil in different compositions while killing us all and our planet at the same time. Do you remember the 90s - The World Before The WWW and Information Revolution? Now we have 21st Century and Energy Revolution: The World Just Before The INTERNET. Read more."

Clean Technica:

Jose Pontes

The Chinese market had a record 43,441 new electric cars zooming the streets in November, up 36% over last October and 56% year over year (YoY), pulling the plug-in market share to a record 1.4%, above the USA (1.1%) and Europe (1.2%).
With the market share continuing to rise bit by bit, the Chinese EV market will end the year at over 350,000 new electric cars, pulling the total plug-in fleet to over 650,000 units, which will be the largest in the world, above the US (560,000) and Europe (630,000).
In November, the upcoming incentive changes reshaped the ranking, with plenty of cheap, small EVs experiencing a surge, no doubt linked to dealership registrations from people wanting to cash in on the current subsidies.
As such, three small EVs jumped into the top 5, with one of them (Zotye Cloud EV) collecting the best-seller trophy with over 5,000 units.
Here are last month’s top 5 best-selling models:
#1 – Zotye Cloud EV: One of many electric “cars” on sale in China, the Zotye Cloud EV has the advantage of offering five doors, some equipment features, (like a 7-inch color infotainment system, which is where the name comes from — “Cloud,” get it?), and a usable range (150 kilometers) thanks to an 18 kWh battery. Is this enough to explain the record 5,024 registrations in November? No, but the upcoming incentives reduction is. …
#2 – Geely Emgrand EV: Geely, one of the largest carmakers in China, which is also the owner of Volvo and LTI (producer of the iconic black cab from London), recently joined the EV circle by selling the Emgrand EV, an electric conversion of its successful middle-of-the-road sedan. Last month was the most successful to date for this car, with 3,799 registrations, allowing it to join for the first time the top 5. With okay looks and good-but-not-outstanding specs (127 hp, 0–100 km/h in 9.9 seconds, 253 km range from a 45 kWh lithium battery), Geely is hoping to make a good first entry into the market, stealing sales from BYD and BAIC sedans … while the much more appealing Lynk & Co plug-ins do not arrive.
#3 – BAIC EU260: Beijing Auto’s new poster-child for success, the EU260, this time was down to 3,769 registrations, but that’s still enough to win another podium seat, this time in third. Sitting at the heart of the plug-in sedan market, with compelling specs (260 kilometers of range, 0–100 km/h in 9 seconds), this model is giving BYD sedans a run for their money and will be a strong contender for gold in 2017.
#4 – Zotye E200: The top of the pile of the two-seater-Smart-alike lineup from Zotye, this model has some impressive specs, even shaming Smart itself. With 220 kilometers of range coming from a 25 kWh battery, 80 hp, a 120 km/h top speed, and fast-charging capability, the E200 feels like a winner. Helped by the incentives boost, this model reached a record 3,500 registrations in November.
#5 – Chery eQ: The funky little hatchback is on the rise, having beaten again Chery’s monthly record, with 3,233 registrations, earning its second consecutive top 5 spot. Unlike the Zotye Cloud EV, the eQ feels more car-like, with a 22 kWh battery, 200 kilometers of range, 56 hp, and suitable safety equipment (airbags, ABS…).

Year-to-Date Ranking – The Legend of Zotye

With some 70(!) models on sale, the Chinese EV market is by far the most dynamic on earth, with plenty of surprises and changes.
Whereas the top 3 models remained unchanged (strangely, all in “Slow Selling” mode), the following positions saw plenty of changes, with the BAIC EU260 jumping to #4. Now fewer than 100 units away from its smaller brother — BAIC E-Series EV — and with the BYD Qin in the line of sight, Beijing’s sedan will try to take away the silver medal from its direct competitor.
But the “Climber of the Month” award went to the Zotye Cloud EV. Jumping to #6 thanks to a record 5,024 units, it is now the best-selling city EV in the ranking. But with the Chery eQ also running strong and only some 800 units behind, this class 2016 title is still open to discussion.
Deserved mentions go to the Geely Emgrand EV, rising to #10 thanks to 3,769 sales. In a memorable month for Zotye, its E200 city car also impressed, beating again its personal record. With 3,500 sales, it jumped three positions to #11, becoming one of the surprises of the month.
Looking at the manufacturer ranking, leader BYD lost 2% share, falling to 31%, and it was the first time in years we didn’t see a single BYD in the monthly top 5 — a case of waning demand, retooling for the lithium-equipped 2017 edition of their models, or both? Again, though, the fading incentives for city cars was part of the challenge that no BYD model could overcome.
BAIC (14%) is firm in 2nd Place, while Zotye (11%, up 3%) secured the 3rd spot, ahead of SAIC and Zhidou (both with 6% share).
An always popular debate is Tesla’s performance in China. While many commenters have classified it as a failure for not topping the sales ranking as in other markets, let’s not forget two facts:
  • One, domestic carmakers have 95% of the market;
  • Two, of the remaining 5% that’s left to foreign brands, 3% belong to Tesla, so in fact Tesla is outselling all other foreign brands in China … combined.
And that’s despite having no local production, thus paying heavy import taxes. If that is not success, I don’t know what is.
Finally, looking at the breakdown between BEVs and PHEVs, unlike other markets where plug-in hybrids have the upper hand, all-electric cars just keep on improving their market share, now at 75%, up 3% relative to last month.
1Zotye Cloud EV5,02414,802
2Geely Emgrand / Dorsett EV3,79911,158
3BAIC EU260 / D50 EV3,76918,496
4Zotye E2003,50010,941
5Chery eQ3,23314,090
6BYD e52,11313,219
7BYD e62,06918,077
8Zhidou D1 EV1,92310,710
9BYD Tang1,57829,895
10JMC E1001,5049,902
11BYD Qin EV3001,21510,137
12BYD Qin1,11821,047
13Tesla Model S9377,440
14SAIC Roewe 550 PHEV / e55092514,525
15JAC i EV 47769,046
16BAIC E-Series EV73518,587
17Zhidou D2 EV7037,744
18BAIC EX2002844,489
19Changan Eado EV2164,335
20Kandi K17 Cyclone6,104

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