Wednesday, 11 January 2017

Lithium Race Towards Electric rEVolution: Electric Cars Will Dominate UK Market By 2025, Survey Reveals.




As you can guess, I am not surprised with this prediction. And another very important piece to the puzzle: the best affordable electric cars are not here yet! I still can not figure it out who in their mind will be buying any DIEsel cars anymore. I am not talking about being green. I am not talking about your kids being poisoned with cancer hazard emissions all day long on every street in London. I am talking about the thing which is much closer to your heart or your bottom depending on style and fashion. I am talking about your wallet. Who will buy your DIEsel car from you in a 3 shorts years? 

The same applies to politicians, despite all talk millions of DIEsel cars which are illegal and breaking every single limit on the real emissions are still on the roads. But the electric tide is coming, we all can just make it sooner.


Lithium Race: Which Will Be The First Country To Ban Fuel-Burning Cars: Norway, Netherlands, Germany, India or China?




  Dr. Joe Romm provides us with more information on the recent decision of German Bundesrat to ban fuel-burning cars. This tipping point for electric cars to become the fast growing mass market is the result of the technological advance called "The Learning Curve" when doubling of production brings on average 26% in cost reduction. It is true for the price of Solar PV, it is even faster for the chip makers and for Lithium Batteries Bloomberg reports about 14-19% cost reduction every year.
  Now we are in the fast lane approaching this transition with first electric cars priced below $40k and with a range of over 200 miles coming to the market: GM Bolt and Tesla Model 3. BMW i3 with the new larger battery, Renault Zoe with 400 km range and Nissan Leaf with upgraded battery are driving the sales in Europe and China stands on its own with 25 companies making 51 models of electric cars. 
  Lithium Technology is here and the best electric cars will become only cheaper and better. Bloomberg estimates 2022 - 2026 when EVs will reach parity with ICE on capital cost alone. I will translate: depending on the country from 2022 electric cars will become cheaper to buy than comparable ICE ones. They will provide much better performance, safety and fraction of running cost to operate. This progress is inevitable and Tesla shows what is coming with Tesla Model S outselling ALL luxury sedan brands in the U.S. and Western Europe by a very wide margin. In the Q3 of this year, Tesla Model S sales were almost double of Mercedes S-Class and more than double of BMW 7!  
  And, finally, as Dr. Joe Romm is pointing out that governments start to wake up to the horrible cancer hazard air pollution on our streets from fuel-burning cars and voices for the ban of such cars are louder and louder.  We can already add Netherlands to his list of countries and I have put China there as well. Masters of the asymmetric warfare Chinese will definitely capitalize on the advance they have managed to gain with their New Energy Plan at the right time. China has the largest EVs market in the world, Warren Buffett-backed BYD is the largest manufacturer of electric carsChinese companies are the largest lithium chemicals producers for the lithium batteries already. Lithium Megafactories are rising with billions of dollars in investments and they are buying the best lithium projects to secure supply of this critical metal.
  If and when China will ban fuel-burning cars remains the speculation at this moment, but it will change the geopolitical landscape overnight making many Trillions of dollars in assets in the West worthless and some major companies literally shrinking in size within a year or two. We will have more Chinese names at the top of the World's largest companies for sure and size of the Chinese economy will jump reflecting the new growth based on the manufacturing base of the 21st centuryThis Energy rEVolution will be very fast and brutal to those unprepared. It is time to check your portfolios in order not to get caught in "The Death Spiral" - like Fitch is predicting for the oil companies. And whoever would like to start new trade wars should be thinking twice and long term in advance, like China is doing building secure lithium supply to power new Energy Plan and Electric rEVolution. With the diminishing role of Oil as the only source of Energy, will our world be able to have a peaceful transition to the new order? I will leave these worries to our brave politicians, you should think about your investments and on which side of the history you would like to be to make the difference. You can find my chronicles of this Energy rEVolution on this blog and below are some links for your own research including the Dr. Joe Romm article. Read more."





The Switch.


"I will throw a few numbers just to give you a teaser here. The rest is on this blog for those who are ready to learn. The cost of Lithium in your iPhone is $1 dollar, in Tesla's Lithium battery cost of Lithium is 2-3% in the price of the finished product. We are in a generational shift 2 to 7,000: 2 is the number of the batteries in your father's remote control, more than 7,000 is the number of lithium batteries in Tesla Model S. It takes 63 kg of LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent) to build Tesla Model S 70 kWh battery. Every 1% increase in sales of Electric Cars as part of total auto sales brings new demand for 70,000 t of LCE. Total production last year was 160,000 -180,000 t of LCE. During all our humankind history 1,000,000 EVs were sold before 2015. This year alone we can get 1,000,000 electric cars sold. Worldwide we are still close only to 1% of Electric cars in total auto sales. BYD - EV automaker from China where Warren Buffett is holding a 10% stake, will sell this year 100,000 EVs, it took GM 7 years to sell the same amount 100,000 of GM Volts. China is talking now about California style Zero Emissions Mandate: 8% of all news cars to be electric by 2018 and 12% by 2020. Let's digest it for a minute. With sales of EVs now only above 1% mark, we are talking about the factor of 8X in  ... two years time and 12X increase in the number of electric cars produced in China by 2020! Now Goldman Sachs numbers can be really conservative: they are talking about 3 times increase in Lithium Demand by 2025. I am talking about the total disruption of $12 Trillion industries: 4$ Trillion Transportation and $8 Trillion Energy and Utilities. I am talking about all cars being electric very soon. 

Now you will better appreciate the following fact that International Lithium Strategic Partner Ganfeng Lithium has more than doubled its total sales in 2015 in just 9 months of this year!  We are talking here about Energy rEVolution and Lithium is the magic metal at the very heart of it. Only a few experts, as usual, do really know what they are talking about. Joe Lowry, Chris Berry and Andrew Miller from Simon Moores' Benchmark are taking the floor below.







   And The Switch ... The Switch is the coming tide when literally millions of people will be switching very fast (as fast as all those millions of EVs can be made) to the electric cars. GM Bolt will give us the first taste of what is coming. The first two electric cars priced below $40k and with a range of over 200 Miles will change everything. Tesla Model 3 will start the real flood of affordable electric cars which are just better than anything else at the same price from the ICE age. Despite all headlines about Electric Cars on my blog, 99% of all new cars are still powered by the last century technology of controlled explosions and by burning oil in different compositions while killing us all and our planet at the same time. Do you remember the 90s - The World Before The WWW and Information Revolution? Now we have 21st Century and Energy Revolution: The World Just Before The INTERNET. Read more."




Electric Cars Report:

Electric cars will dominate UK market by 2025, survey reveals



"UK automotive executives expect that more than half of today’s car owners will not want to own a car in less than a decade, according to KPMG’s Global Automotive Executive Survey 2017.
The survey found that 74 per cent of UK automotive executives think that until 2025, more than half of car owners today will not want to own a vehicle, as self-driving technology and mobility as a service will take priority.
John Leech, UK Head of Automotive at KPMG, said: “The UK is particularly suited to the early adoption of self-driving cars consumed as a service. Our greenbelt policy has created a relatively dense urban population which, when coupled with our high fuel prices, means that so-called “robot taxis” offer a greater cost saving to the UK public, compared to European or North American markets.  I believe robot taxis will revolutionise UK urban transportation in the second half of the next decade.”
The report findings revealed that 62 per cent of UK automotive executives view diesel technology as a thing of the past, expecting the traditional powertrain technology to eventually vanish from the manufacturers’ portfolio. Meanwhile, a staggering 93 per cent of UK automotive executives are planning to invest in the technology for battery electric vehicles over the next five years.
For the first time, battery electric vehicle technology has overtaken connectivity and digitalisation as the key trend in this year’s survey. The report revealed that 90 per cent of UK automotive executives expect battery electric vehicles to dominate the automotive marketplace by 2025.
“Improvements in the cost and range of battery technology, coupled with growing concern over the emission of both carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides from diesel engines, means that almost the whole automotive industry believes that the mass adoption of electric cars will happen during the next decade,” said Leech.
With consumers shifting to using cars but not owning them, it’s likely there will be fewer cars and therefore less money to be made from building vehicles in the future. This does not worry the majority of automotive executives: 85 per cent of the respondents said they are convinced that their company will generate higher revenues by providing new digital services, than selling cars alone.
“Carmakers plan to sell a myriad of new digital services to vehicle users. Today carmakers already make substantial profits from the sale of consumer finance and annual vehicle insurance but this will grow in the future as innovative services such as remote vehicle monitoring and the integration of the car as a focal point in people’s ever more connected lifestyles are demanded by consumers.
“For the auto industry this implies that pure product profitability is outdated. Carmakers’ success will not be evaluated solely on the quantity of vehicles sold, but on the customer value over the whole lifecycle – especially when the digital ecosystem will be ready for the market.
“So OEMs need to rethink. More than three out of four executives believe that one connected car can generate higher revenues over the entire lifecycle than 10 non-connected cars.” concluded Leech."