Tuesday, 27 September 2016

Energy rEVolution And Lithium Supply: Tesla Gigafactory - New Video Shows Plant More Than Doubling In Size.



  Electrek has produced a very nice video of Tesla Gigafactory which is already more than doubling in size. Here you can see in details what is happening inside Tesla Gigafactory 1. As you remember, before Elon Musk was talking about 35 GWh of lithium batteries to be produced by 2020. Now we have a total game changer after 400,000 reservations for Tesla Model 3  and Tesla Gigafactory 1 will produce 50 GWh by 2018 and 150 GWh by 2022.
  Below you can find more details about the Lithium Megafactories coming up all over the world and how they will affect the Lithium Supply. Yesterday's news about China's Tianqi moving on Chiles's SQM and upping up the competition for the Secure Lithium Supply shows you where the real Lithium Race is happening now. China is calling the shots in this game scooping the best lithium assets to feed its New Energy Plan, while Tesla is still relying on getting its lithium cells from Panasonic.

 "Now you can better realise why I am calling that the tide is coming after the release of GM Bolt and Tesla Model 3 following after that. For the first time, we will have two electric cars with more than 200 miles range and below $40k. Another very interesting point in this article that 250,000 EVs are estimated to be sold this year only in Europe! We are reaching the pivotal point on our way towards the mass market for electric cars and the total electrification of our transportation. We have now only over 1 million electric cars sold in all of our history. This year alone China can sell 500,000, now we can start talking that the U.S. will match Europe at least and we can have 1,000,000 electric cars sold just in 2016! China will see EVs sales accelerated after cleaning up its incentives scheme for the EVs makers earlier this year  and Tesla will be ramping up its production with GM selling Electric Chevy Bolts now as well.
  Markets will be up and down, companies will come and go, but we are witnessing the historic moment of coming out of ICE-age in our transportation. We are talking here about the disruption of $4 trillion transportation industry based on Lithium Technology. Now it is time to check out where all this lithium will be coming from. And the answer: "From Panasonic" - will be better than: "From the underneath of Tesla Gigafactory in Nevada", but still the same like if electricity is coming just from the socket in your wall.  Read more."





Electrek


Lithium Race: China Wants 3 Million Electric Cars On Road By 2025.




  "I guess that it is the case that whatever China wants they will get. In the case of electric cars with all the best central planning can get they will be there much faster. I am expecting that China will sell 500,000 only in this year. And we will see 1,000,000 electric cars sold worldwide in 2016. They have sold already 207,000 by August in 2016! Bloomberg is even more optimistic on the chat above. I will throw my own number - China will have at least 5 million electric cars by 2025. Why - just stay with me for a while. These twenty minutes can change your next 20 years of life. If Tony Seba is correct: all new cars sold by 2025 will be electric.
  There is a state-level military plan in action in China to leapfrog ICE-age technology directly into the post carbon world with its New Energy Plan. It is a part of strategic planning on the state-level within Five Year Plans. New Energy is based on Solar, Wind and Electric Cars. Military style planning includes the whole commodity chain starting with Lithium Raw Materials - Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqiare investing all over the globe to secure lithium supply. Lithium Chemicals including for lithium batteries production - China is number 1 in the world already including Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi making it into "The New Lithium Top 5." Lithium Batteries - Now Warren Buffett's BYD is chasing Panasonic and new coming Megafactories in China from CATL, BYD, Foxconn, Boston Power, A123, LG Chem and  Panasonic will make China the center of Lithium Universe for many years ahead. Electric Cars - there are 25 companies which are making 51 models of EVs already in China and 200 companies are developing 4,000 new EV models.  
  This is what I call a serious exercise of a structural shift in the economy, driving internal consumption by building a 21st-century manufacturing base in Solar, Wind and Electric Cars and growing its middle class who will produce and consume all those beautiful cars. Now they will be able to breathe a fresh air as well. Welcome to Henry Ford idea with the state level implementation of new lithium technology and 1.4 billion people who would like to be happy and only starting to consume a fraction of the goods compare to the West.   
  I am preaching for the same approach here in the West for years. My dog is listening to me every time, but even him got bored already. Nothing is perfect anywhere, but you better check it out and learn fast: while we are still fighting DieselGate after one year from its mass media discovery, Red Dragon is flying fast and high picking up the best lithium projects, technology and brains to feed its new appetite for growth. Links below will provide you with my ideas where this growth will lead us  and what will be the diet for this hungry creature. For those who is a long time here - we are coming back to our main investment thesis. It is very difficult to handle dragons: they are naughty, moody and can fry you just by trying to kiss. It is a better business to run a grocery store and feed them well. This New Energy domination plan will require a lot of Lithium and Copper and this is where my research is leading me to as well now. Read more."


China Leads Lithium Race: Electric Cars Sales Doubled For July To 36,000 With 207,000 EVs Already Sold In 2016.


InsideEVs.


  "China leads the Lithium Race with 98% increase in EVs sales y/y in July! InsideEVs reports that New Energy Vehicles sales hit 36,000 in July bringing the total for 2016 to 207,000. Warren Buffett's BYD is in the lead. Year on year EVs sales in China in 2016 have more than doubled with 123% increase so far! Battery Electric Vehicles are taking 74% of total electric cars sales in China this year.
  Now we can run some back to back comparisons for China and the US. China is moving fast increasing the gap and confirming its status of the largest electric cars market in the world one more time. We have seen the largest increase in the US in sales of EVs in August up to 66% y/y with total 14,882 electric cars sold that month. In China, we had 98% rise and 36,000 EVs sold in July. Total EVs sales in the US up to September were 93,197 and in China, we have already 207,000 by August - leading the US by 122%!     
  What is really important that EVs sales in China are totally dominated by the Chinese automakers. Now we have 25 companies which are making 51 models of electric cars in China. And ... 200 companies are  developing 4,000 new models of electric cars! Not all of them will be Teslas, but we can see what state-level military planning can do. When in the West will we see our new "Manhattan Project" aim to destroy the corruption holding us all back for years with "Clean Diesel" and "Not So Dirty Petrol" cars? Nothing is perfect anywhere and China will take a lot of titles in this field as well, but I am talking about us - when will we start thinking longer than the next turn on the road or Q results? Elon Musk has taken us very far with his own money, holding the ground of the best Lithium Technology and Electric Cars alone against all China state-level planning military machine. Now we need millions of electric cars and very fast. Who will make it? When finally Apple electric car is coming if ever? Where are all those Titans of the E-Commerce, Technology and INTERNET who are swimming in cash - searches, RTs and likes are great, but do you really need them when you cannot breathe anymore? All questions are rhetorical, nothing will change before you start it. Stop buying cancer hazard polluting ICE-age garbage, join our call "Ban Diesel UK" and spread the message.
  For those who like to connect the dots and blessed with more than 30 seconds attention span, I will provide a few links showing what is really happening in the Energy rEVolution Universe now. Read more."


InsideEVs.



"The New Lithium Top 5": EV Race At Ludicrous Speed - 200 Companies Are Developing 4,000 Models Of Electric Cars In China.






  "People are still choking up when I casually drop my line that there are 25 companies which are making 51 models of electric cars in China right now. Bloomberg is writing about another EV maker from Japan nobody-knows-about, but the real Lithium Bomb is coming with the line that around 200 companies are developing estimated 4,000 models of electric cars in China now!
  Should we all check together the lithium demand again? You can find the links below with more information about Tesla Gigafactory 1 and another dozen of Lithium Megafactories  all over the world. I was very cautiously pointing out to the 17 start-ups in China started in 2015 alone and trying to make lithium batteries before.  Bloomberg has brought us all on another page of understanding of this state-level crafted and carefully planned military operation called New Energy in China. Should we start talking about rumored 500 Lithium Batteries factories in China rising up right now?
   In our Lithium Universe, according to Robert Baylis,  Albemarle is number 1 getting 25% after its latest deal in China with Jiangli. SQM is struggling to hold the 2nd place with 19%, with all its political problems.  FMC was left behind by Tianqi now with 16% claiming place number 3 and announcing the End of "Old Big 3". Ganfeng Lithium is challenging FMC as well and they both are sharing places number 4 and 5 in the "New Lithium Top 5". International lithium is building the vertically integrated lithium business with $4.5 billion giant from China. Ganfeng Lithium is a strategic partner of ILC and financing our J/V projects in Argentina and Ireland.
  Joe Lowry has pointed out that this recent move by Albemarle in China is expanding its margin, but not increasing the amount of LCE produced. I am following the comments on this chart below from Robert Baylis as well. Read more."





Robert Baylis.



Update September 5th, 2016:

Thank you, Joe, for your comments!






Warren Buffett's BYD Chasing Panasonic In Lithium Race: EV Lithium-Ion Battery Suppliers Outlook For H1 2016.



InsideEVs.


  Now we know who is feeding exactly this enormous growth of electric cars in China. InsideEVs provides very interesting data on the state of our lithium race for EVs lithium batteries market. Panasonic is still holding the number 1 place with 36% of the market, "but in terms of growth BYD is second to none moving up by more than 300%!" Now Warren Buffett's BYD claims 18% of this market. The first half of 2016 has seen an increase by 81% to nearly 8.5 GWh of lithium batteries capacity. As you can see, there is no Tesla yet on this chart at all! All lithium cells for Tesla are supplied by Panasonic. And there is no lithium under Gigafactory floor in Nevada. 
  Should we discuss the lithium demand picture again with 150 GWh of lithium batteries just coming from Tesla Gigafactory 1 by 2022 after initial 50 GWh in 2018? And what about another dozen of lithium batteries Megafactories all around the globe? 
  International Lithium strategic partner Ganfeng Lithium supplies Panasonic and BYD. Now this $4.5 billion giant from China finances International Lithium projects in Argentina and Ireland. Read more."



InsideEVs.



Lithium Market Small But Complex. Canadian Junior And Chinese Partner Taking Long View.




"Right now, Ganfeng is advancing ILC’s Mariana project in Salta province, Argentina. In July 2016, ILC and Ganfeng co-announced that a $12 million budget has been approved to accelerate exploration and development at Mariana.



ILC president Kirill Klip noted that Ganfeng has a $4.5 billion US market cap holding 19 patents for lithium products. Klip said the $12.5 million will enable ILC to firm up the size of the Mariana resource and move forward its application for a pilot production plant on the property.                                                     
“This access to capital and Ganfeng’s advanced lithium extraction technology puts  International Lithium in an exceptional position to move our project forward,” Klip said.  He cited recent discussions about ILC’s project with senior officials in the Argentinian government as evidence that the country is enthused about foreign investment in natural resource development. Read more."

Lithium 2.0 Launch: Security Of Supply - Galaxy Resources To Buy General Mining In Lithium Takeover.





  "This chart of lithium price in China is keeping awake at night very many people now in our very small industry. Quite a lot of them have totally missed the launch of Lithium 2.0 and now the security of supply is the major geopolitical issue. Tesla is still relying on Panasonic to supply lithium cells and a lot of people are relying on the "Lithium Found in Nevada" under Tesla's Gigafactory floor.
  Ganfeng Lithium: $4.5 billion giant from China is the strategic partner of International Lithium and now financing two of our J/V operations in Ireland and in Argentina. We are going where Lithium is and not just the hype around it. As we have discussed before, Lithium 2.0 is now for real as we have the real electric cars finally on the road and GM Bolt and Tesla Model 3 bring us mass market for electric cars. Cheap lithium batteries change everything. Exponential growth in EVs sales is following by deployment of Energy Storage now.
  This Lithium M&A is pointing out another very important quality of Lithium 2.0 Launch: separation of dreams from the real people with the real projects, capital  and technology to put them forward. There are only very limited number of quality lithium projects and even less capable teams with access to the capital and technology, like in the case of International Lithium and Ganfeng. Read more."