Aden Sisters: New Gold Bull Beginning?

TNR Gold: Shotgun Gold Project in Alaska Presentation.

 "Never fight Central Banks - they have unlimited resources and can print all the money they want until the total breakdown in the system. The war on Deflation is on and ECB has unleashed its own QE with 1 Trillion Euro to be printed for a start. I would not bet on the end of the world, but would do definitely on Inflation. The desire to destroy the FIAT currencies by Central banks is almost unstoppable. Gold is surging in all currencies now and we are entering the new stage, when All FIAT currencies will depreciate against Gold. Nobody was interested in Gold projects with Gold sliding last few years, now it is time to look at the best ones, providing the scale for the new significant discoveries. Read more."

Kitco:

New Bull Beginning?

Friday January 23, 2015 14:12

Gold ended 2014 essentially breakeven, being slightly down (1½%).  It was a choppy year for gold and a bad year for gold shares.

But it looks like the bear market may now be coming to an end. In fact, it could happen at any time.

The seemingly never ending fall in the oil price, the plunging euro and petro currencies, and weaker stocks all pushed safe haven buying to bonds and gold as the new year got started. 

It’s interesting to note that the soaring U.S. dollar ceased to keep downward pressure on gold. 

We already started seeing this last month.  And essentially the strength in the dollar has not affected gold since November.

This alone shows that a subtle but positive change has started. 

DEMAND IS SOLID
In addition, gold demand has been up, and it continues to grow.

Hedge funds became the most bullish on gold since August.

And while fears that Russia will sell their gold prevailed, the contrary happened. Russia has been buying more gold.

We’ve been seeing the physical demand for gold increase around the world as central banks add to their gold reserves, with China leading the way.

And, according to our dear friend Chuck Butler, the NY Fed had a huge drop in physical gold last month.... down by 42 tonnes, leaving the Fed with the lowest amount of physical gold since the turn of the century! 

It seems the Fed is giving gold back to several European countries who had their gold stored there.

GLOBAL INFLATION?

It’s certainly no secret that many central banks have been on an unprecedented stimulus program, like Japan.  China is joining in too and so is Europe.

This rekindles concerns that global inflation could rise, in spite of ongoing low inflation around the world.  But either way, the global situation is bullish for gold.

The big question on all gold investors’ minds is, are the lows in the bear market behind us?

Only time will tell, but the strong start this year gives us the feeling that the lows are in (see Chart).

WHAT TO WATCH…

For now, if gold’s firmness since November continues, and gold stays above $1200, it’ll be doing fine. But if it stays above $1265 (the 65 week moving average), it’ll be turning bullish, reinforcing that a further decline is unlikely.

Gold would then turn super bullish if it can manage to rise and stay above $1300, its mega moving average.

By Mary Anne & Pamela Aden
Courtesy of www.adenforecast.com"

Gary Wagner: Could The Fed Surprise Markets Next Week?

"It’s Friday and Gary Wagner is back on Kitco News to make sense of all the ‘drama’ that has happened this past week in the market. Gold hit a high of $1,307 an ounce Thursday and Wagner says, on a technical basis, there is a “defining trend that this market has moved up.” He adds that the gold market is in unusual territory right now with it moving higher in tandem with the U.S. dollar and U.S. equity markets. Looking to next week’s Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, Wagner says that there could be a surprise but he’s “not convinced that we require, in the United States, the same type of drastic reaction as we’ve seen in Europe.” Get his in most recent in-depth analysis of the gold market here on “Chart This!” Kitco News, January 22, 2015."

TNR Gold: Shotgun Gold Project in Alaska Presentation.

 "Never fight Central Banks - they have unlimited resources and can print all the money they want until the total breakdown in the system. The war on Deflation is on and ECB has unleashed its own QE with 1 Trillion Euro to be printed for a start. I would not bet on the end of the world, but would do definitely on Inflation. The desire to destroy the FIAT currencies by Central banks is almost unstoppable. Gold is surging in all currencies now and we are entering the new stage, when All FIAT currencies will depreciate against Gold. Nobody was interested in Gold projects with Gold sliding last few years, now it is time to look at the best ones, providing the scale for the new significant discoveries. Read more."

Michael Pento: Flocking Back into Hard Money - Gold.

"Financial analyst Michael Pento says, “Gold is going up in all currencies because investors are coming to this realization, or epiphany, that you cannot trust central banks. In 2008, we had the Great Recession. We had the bursting of asset bubbles. We had the bursting of the housing bubble. We had the bursting of the stock bubble. The Federal Reserve came in, and it was not only the Fed, we had central banks from across the world increase debt by 40%. 40% since 2008 on a global basis, and they took interest rates, which were already low, down to 0% and negative % and left them there for going on almost seven years. People had the audacity to believe that this was going to be a success story. They are slowly learning we have solved nothing. We have just made all the problems associated with the great recession much, much worse. As that realization unfolds, people will be flocking back into hard money, and that means gold.”

What will trigger the next financial meltdown? Pento says keep your eye on the land of the rising sun, heavily leveraged Japan. Pento predicts, “I think the Japanese central bank is absolutely going to destroy that currency. . . . When that unwinds, you are going to see a massive wipeout of equity prices. That just metastasizes across the globe.”

Frank Holmes: Gold Surges on Currency Volatility.

  "The great set of charts from Frank Holmes confirming Gold breakout in different currencies. We are entering the next stage of Currency Wars when All FIAT currencies will depreciate against the Gold. What will happen to the Gold price when US Dollar will start the long-due correction? Read more."

Frank Holmes’ Take On Gold This “Action Packed Week” And The Sentiment In Vancouver.

"Frank Holmes is on Kitco News ahead of this “action packed week,” and has his say on how the gold market is currently set up. “All eyes on the ECB,” he says. “They’ve talked about [QE] for so long and nothing has been done,” he adds. Holmes also comments on the “black swan” Swiss National Bank move last week and says “it seems central bankers are out for themselves now.” Watch to see what he thinks may be gold’s touchdown pass during this busy economic data week. Kitco News, January 20, 2014."

Frank Holmes: Gold Surges on Currency Volatility.

  

  "The great set of charts from Frank Holmes confirming Gold breakout in different currencies. We are entering the next stage of Currency Wars when All FIAT currencies will depreciate against the Gold. What will happen to the Gold price when US Dollar will start the long-due correction? Read more."

Frank Holmes: Gold Surges on Currency Volatility.

  

  The great set of charts from Frank Holmes confirming Gold breakout in different currencies. We are entering the next stage of Currency Wars when All FIAT currencies will depreciate against the Gold. What will happen to the Gold price when US Dollar will start the long-due correction?

Koos Jansen: Chinese Lunar Year Gold Buying At Full Steam: 61t Withdrawn From SGE Vaults In 1 Week.

GoldTrends.

  

  "Last week Swiss Shock has UnPegged the gold market and Gold is in a breakout now. China shows no slowdown in its accumulation of Gold. What Chinese know the others don't? Please visit Koos Jansen at GoldBullion for more insights on the Chinese Gold market. The real turnaround in Gold sentiment will come after $1,350 level, it could happen fast now. All eyes will be on the ECB next week. These level of beaten into the dust junior miners will not be forever: HUI has cleared 200 level and has a very strong breakout pattern now."

 Time is to dust off our project in Alaska, Gold above $1,300 will bring the market back into the beaten in to the dust junior miners.

"We are working on the corporate structure now, which will allow to develop Shotgun Gold with the potential new strategic partner on J/V basis like we are doing with Ganfeng Lithium in International Lithium. You can find more information in the Shotgun Gold Project presentation below, on our website and give us a call to discuss it at any time."

TNR Gold Shotgun Gold Presentation, Alaska - April 2014 from Kirill Klip

Kitco:

SWOT Analysis: Gold Surges on Currency Volatility

Monday January 19, 2015 14:42

Gold and gold stocks are on the move after the Swiss National bank removed its currency cap versus the euro last week. This highlights gold’s valuable role as a store of value when currency volatility destroys purchasing power as it has in many parts of the world over the past year.

As you can see in the chart below, gold in euros has rocketed higher.

Similar moves can be witnessed in other countries’ currencies as well, such as the South African rand, the Japanese yen and the Canadian dollar.

The Gold Market

Along with the move in gold, gold stocks are also responding. Our Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX) and World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX) crossed above their 50-day moving averages early this month. The 50-day moving average is a key trend indicator that many investors use to allocate capital.

Strengths

• Gold traders are bullish for the seventh week in a row, citing the potential for stimulus in Europe along with speculation that the Federal Reserve will move slowly on raising rates. Moreover, one trader made a huge bullish bet earlier last week by purchasing 40,000 March 2015 SPDR Gold Shares ETF calls worth upwards of $10 million.
• The Swiss National Bank’s surprise move to abandon the franc’s cap against the euro currency sent investors flocking to gold as a safe haven from currency swings. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF, the largest of the physically-backed ETFs, saw an inflow of almost 10 tonnes last Thursday, the largest single-day inflow since August 2012.
• The World Gold Council signed a memorandum of understanding with the Shanghai Gold Exchange on a comprehensive strategic gold cooperation agreement. This further marks the shift in the gold market from West to East, as the expansion of strong gold trading hubs in Asia will improve price discovery, liquidity, transparency and efficiency. The agreement underpins the development of gold investment products within the Shanghai Free Trade Zone and the international trading of gold in the Chinese renminbi currency.

Weaknesses

• Goldcorp announced it will take an impairment charge of up to $2.7 billion on its new Cerro Negro mine in Argentina. The company said this resulted from restrictions on importing goods and services into the country, converting Argentine pesos into U.S. dollars and high inflation.
• U.S. retail sales fell the most in nearly a year last month, fueling speculation of weakness in the economy.
• Average hourly earnings for all U.S. employees fell in December by the most since comparable records began in 2006, showing signs of slack in the labor market.

Opportunities

• Sharps Pixley sees gold averaging $1,321 per ounce in 2015, citing the potential for investors to seek protection from currency debasement as well as a strong physical demand for the metal. Carter Worth of Sterne Agee said the New York gold futures drop in October-November was a “head fake,” since gold has been stabilizing as the U.S. dollar rallies.
• Although the U.S. producer price index declined 0.3% percent month-over-month in December, the drop was almost entirely attributable to food and energy. Excluding these components, core producer prices actually rose 0.3 percent. This counters the deflationary pressures arguments.

• The Swiss franc soared as much as 38 percent on the news of its euro-cap rate abandonment, a currency move that normally takes years to accomplish. The markets interpreted the move as a preemptive action ahead of the European Central Bank’s QE next week. It also suggests that after six years of unprecedented intervention, central banks are losing control of markets and events. An unraveling of the markets would send investors rushing towards safe-haven assets such as gold.
•  

Threats

• Along with the euro-cap rate abandonment, the Swiss National Bank lowered the negative interest rate on sight deposits to -0.75 percent from a previous -0.25 percent, as well as moving the three-month Libor target to between -0.25 percent and -0.75 percent. This came as a complete surprise to the market as most observers forecasted the cap to remain in place for years.
• Goldman Sachs reiterated its bearish outlook on gold, saying stronger U.S. growth should support higher real rates, thereby raising the opportunity cost of holding gold. Moreover, many of the fears that drove investors toward gold as a store of value, such as U.S. dollar debasement and high inflation, are now seen as moving in the opposite direction.
• With the failure of rate hikes and substantial interventions to prop up the ruble, any further decline in the currency could force the Russian central bank to begin liquidating its gold reserves. As the major accumulator of bullion in recent years, this could put downward pressure on prices.

Total Annualized Returns as of 12/31/2014
	One-Year	Five-Year	Ten-Year	Gross Expense Ratio	Expense Cap
Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX)	-14.00%	-15.67%	0.38%	2.15%	1.90%
World precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX)	-16.52%	-18.79%	-2.57%	1.86%	N/A

Expense ratios as stated in the most recent prospectus. The expense ratio after waivers is a voluntary limit on total fund operating expenses (exclusive of any acquired fund fees and expenses, performance fees, taxes, brokerage commissions and interest) that U.S. Global Investors, Inc. can modify or terminate at any time, which may lower a fund’s yield or return. Performance data quoted above is historical. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. For a portion of periods, the fund had expense limitations, without which returns would have been lower. Current performance may be higher or lower than the performance data quoted. The principal value and investment return of an investment will fluctuate so that your shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Performance does not include the effect of any direct fees described in the fund’s prospectus (e.g., short-term trading fees of 0.05%) which, if applicable, would lower your total returns. Performance quoted for periods of one year or less is cumulative and not annualized. Obtain performance data current to the most recent month-end at www.usfunds.com or 1-800-US-FUNDS.

For the week, spot gold closed at $1,278.85 up $56.33 per ounce, or 4.61 percent. Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, gained 6.93 percent. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index gained 0.77 percent for the week."

Nomi Prins: Oil Loans And QE - Gold Will Increase Gradually in 2015.

  This coming financial shock with bad loans after the Oil Crash can be even of a larger magnitude than the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008. Gold market is finally allowed to reflect at least the possibility of this increased risk in the financial system. 

"Former top Goldman Sachs banker Nomi Prins is bullish on gold, but you’re going to have to be patient. Prins contends, “This shift to the dollar going down, I think, will be more gradual. For the same reason the dollar stays strong is the same reason gold has done okay very recently but hasn’t had this major outbreak. . . . Gold will increase this year--also gradually for the same reason the dollar will not dump but could decrease gradually as QE and all these maneuvers play out. I don’t really think this is going to be that breakout year. The markets are going to go down because of the end of all this artificial aid, but we also have been underestimating the aid that gets continually dumped into the markets and into these banks. That’s where the timing is critical to look at. . . . There’s going to be a negative market. There’s going to be a downward impact on the markets. There’s going to be an upward impact on gold. All of that will happen. It’s just not going to be as huge this year. It’s going to be a more gradual working into that this year.”

Connecting The Dots: China, Gold and Swiss Shock - 61t of Gold Withdrawn From SGE Vaults In 1 Week.

"Last week Swiss Shock has UnPegged the gold market and Gold is in a breakout now. China shows no slowdown in its accumulation of Gold. What Chinese know the others don't? Please visit Koos Jansen at GoldBullion for more insights on the Chinese Gold market. The real turnaround in Gold sentiment will come after $1,350 level, it could happen fast now. All eyes will be on the ECB next week. These level of beaten into the dust junior miners will not be forever: HUI has cleared 200 level and has a very strong breakout pattern now. Read more."

Koos Jansen: Chinese Lunar Year Gold Buying At Full Steam: 61t Withdrawn From SGE Vaults In 1 Week.

GoldTrends.

  

  Last week Swiss Shock has UnPegged the gold market and Gold is in a breakout now. China shows no slowdown in its accumulation of Gold. What Chinese know the others don't? Please visit Koos Jansen at GoldBullion for more insights on the Chinese Gold market. The real turnaround in Gold sentiment will come after $1,350 level, it could happen fast now. All eyes will be on the ECB next week. These level of beaten into the dust junior miners will not be forever: HUI has cleared 200 level and has a very strong breakout pattern now.

 Time is to dust off our project in Alaska, Gold above $1,300 will bring the market back into the beaten in to the dust junior miners.

"We are working on the corporate structure now, which will allow to develop Shotgun Gold with the potential new strategic partner on J/V basis like we are doing with Ganfeng Lithium in International Lithium. You can find more information in the Shotgun Gold Project presentation below, on our website and give us a call to discuss it at any time."

TNR Gold Shotgun Gold Presentation, Alaska - April 2014 from Kirill Klip

TNR Gold Shotgun: NOVAGOLD Reports Major Progress in Advancing Donlin Gold up the Value Chain.

Peter Schiff: Will China Pull a "Switzerland" on the U.S. Dollar?

Gold Surges More Than 2% On Unexpected Swiss Bank Capitulation On Euro Cap.

Gary Wagner: Did The Swiss Turn The Tide For Gold?

Koos Jansen:

GoldBullion.

Chinese Lunar Year Gold Buying At Full Steam: 61t Withdrawn From SGE Vaults In 1 Week

As I mentioned last week, January is the time of the year for the Chinese to buy golden gifts for their love ones. And that is exactly what they are currently doing en masse, according to the latest data from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE).

Blue (本周交割量) is weekly gold withdrawn from the vaults in Kg, green (累计交割量) is the total YTD.

An astonishing 61 tonnes have been withdrawn from the vaults in SGE trading week 1 (January 5 -9), the strongest week since early October 2014. SGEI volume was very little at 3.5 tonnes; meaning withdrawals from vaults in the mainland must have been at least 58 tonnes. (Read this post for a comprehensive explanation of the relationship between SGEI trading volume and withdrawals.)

As most of Chinese gold demand needs to be sourced from abroad (import), this is draining global gold inventory. One of the largest suppliers to this market is the UK, home of the London Bullion Market. It remains to be seen how long the UK can export to China – the question is will all gold from London be shipped to the Orient, or will it stop before they’re empty. From the LBMA website, January 2015:

There are seven custodians offering vaulting services in the London bullion market, three of whom are also clearing members of the LBMA (Barclays, HSBC and JP Morgan). There are also four other security carriers, who are also LBMA members (Brinks, G4S Cash Solutions (UK), Malca Amit and ViaMat). The Bank of England also offers a custodian service (gold only). In total it is estimated that there are approximately 7,500 tonnes of gold held in London vaults, of which about three quarters is stored in the Bank of England.

In July 2014, the LBMA mentioned:

In total there is approximately 9,000 tonnes of gold held in London vaults, of which about two thirds is stored in the Bank of England.

This is not an exact scientific way of measuring changes in London’s gold stock over a given period, but it is significant.According the Eurostat the UK has net exported 1,871 tonnes from January 1, 2013, until November 31, 2014. Let’s see how this will play out this year.

(h/t @ronanmanly for LBMA data)

Koos Jansen
E-mail Koos Jansen on: koos.jansen@bullionstar.com"